China demographics thread.

[Overbom]

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[9dashline]

Yep. China is entering a massive demographic crisis and will never be a superpower after its population exponentially decreases

gadgetcool == OCSDCLAC == Overborn == Voyager1 == CIA

Guess you think no one's ever heard of Peak Oil, or AGI...

China is already a superpower, unlike India... Global resource contraints are now the rate limiting factor, not the supply of human labor... stop with the outdated 1980s thinking

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Yep. China is entering a massive demographic crisis and will never be a superpower after its population exponentially decreases

Dude think for a moment, at the end of this century China if everything stays the same will have like 800 million people. That's more then the western world is at present day and they are already declining in population numbers.

 

[Overbom]

Yep. China is entering a massive demographic crisis and will never be a superpower after its population exponentially decreases

I merely linked an article and you started drawing conclusions out of the blue.

Demographics is an issue but it is not catastrophic. The 4th Industrial Revolution doesn't need a huge labour force

 

[9dashline]

One-third of the population being marriage-less, not to mention child-less is a crisis.

It is a massive issue. Just because manufacturing will possibly have higher manufacturing productivity doesn't mean a declining Chinese population will have lower capital formation (which weakens the economy and drags birth rates even lower) and per capita productivity, especially in the services sector.

Ask yourself why US only did Mrna and not traditional dead virus vax for the Covid

Now look at advancements like CISPR

The State (CPC) will soon have all Chinese people dna in centralized database...

China gov can easily increase the population at any arbitrary rate if it really wanted to... monogamy is not natural, only 10% of top males are needed to optimally seed the females and thrive the species/race

The lines of biological and machine life are getting blurred... at the core humans are just molecular reconstruction machines, like nanobots...

China success is rooted in its system, as a platform... the essence of China is really just boils down to its code /information processing patterns, not merely a flag or language or geographical demarcation

 

[Overbom]

One-third of the population being marriage-less, not to mention child-less is a crisis

Lets agree to disagree then. I think it is a problem/issue, not a "crisis"

Just because manufacturing will possibly have higher manufacturing productivity doesn't mean a declining Chinese population will have lower capital formation (which weakens the economy and drags birth rates even lower) and per

So if you wont have a lot of people working in factories, what are you going to do with hundreds of millions without job?

You cant put them all on service sector jobs. Thus they will become a net drain on the country's resources.

So why is it bad if there is a lower population? And dont forget that the new generation are highly educated with university degrees while the old who are dying are not highly educated

As such:
Old people with low education go out.
Young people with high education but lower numbers get in.

The old are mostly working in low value added jobs while the young are working in high value added jobs

I think this situation suits China fine but it still needs to increase the TFR so that the transition is smoother

 

[AndrewS]

China gov can easily increase the population at any arbitrary rate if it really wanted to... monogamy is not natural, only 10% of top males are needed to optimally seed the females and thrive the species/race

For the past 8000 years or so, the genetic analysis shows that very few men actually reproduced
Make what you will of this data

8,000 YEARS AGO, 17 WOMEN REPRODUCED FOR EVERY ONE MAN
An analysis of modern DNA uncovers a rough dating scene after the advent of agriculture.

psmag.com/environment/17-to-1-reproductive-success

 

[9dashline]

Lets agree to disagree then. I think it is a problem/issue, not a "crisis"



So if you wont have a lot of people working in factories, what are you going to do with hundreds of millions without job?

You cant put them all on service sector jobs. Thus they will become a net drain on the country's resources.

So why is it bad if there is a lower population? And dont forget that the new generation are highly educated with university degrees while the old who are dying are not highly educated

As such:
Old people with low education go out.
Young people with high education but lower numbers get in.

The old are mostly working in low value added jobs while the young are working in high value added jobs

I think this situation suits China fine but it still needs to increase the TFR so that the transition is smoother

As thought experiment, hypothetically imagine in future China has star trek replicator, transporter and hologram technologies...and infinite free energy like ZPE etc

it can convert dirt or sand directly to anything... be it high tech processors or food or clean water...

Then it wouldnt need to trade with the world... it wouldnt need access to ocean or its BRI.... think 3D printing on steriods, then you do everything locally, no need for logistics or supplychains anymore

Then it would be full UBS (universal basic services) society where no one has to work, and everyone is allocated an abundance of resources and services...

In that world why would population even matter? there would not be a lower bound at all...

As technology approaches infinity, all the problems solve themselves...

AI is a huge "intellectual multiplier factor". Given raw resources are avialable, China can increase its output 10x fold as long as it advanced in AGI and industries controlled by automation... while at the same time decreasing its population by factor of ten... thereby increasing it wealth per capita by 100 times

China simply doesnt need that many people to run an super advanced society

Think big picture, think interstellar colonization... the earth is too limited

China is code

 

[Overbom]

As thought experiment, hypothetically imagine in future China has star trek replicator, transporter and hologram technologies...and infinite free energy like ZPE etc

it can convert dirt or sand directly to anything... be it high tech processors or food or clean water...

Then it wouldnt need to trade with the world... it wouldnt need access to ocean or its BRI

Then it would be full UBS (universal basic services) society where no one has to work, and everyone is allocated an abundance of resources and services..

I think this too far out to discuss it seriously. However I will say that i agree with the above. Fusion energy would enable all of that

As technology approaches infinity, all the problems solve themselves

Yes. At the end, its all about technology

AI is a huge intellectual multiplier factor. Given raw resources are avialable, China can increase its output 10x fold as long as it advanced in AGI and industries controlled by automation... while at the same time decreasing its population by factor of ten... thereby increasing it wealth per capita by 100 times

As you said, AI is important. In fact, I would say that AI is everything. Nothing matters more than it

As for AGI, it is the most terrifying thing. I hope I wont live to see that. Computers are so much better than humans at what they designed to do, that if AGI happens, then it would trully be unstoppable. Humanity's existence would be at the mercy of AGI.

Anyway, I think we are going too much offtopic, so lets end this here.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

gadgetcool == OCSDCLAC == Overborn == Voyager1 == CIA

Guess you think no one's ever heard of Peak Oil, or AGI...

China is already a superpower, unlike India... Global resource contraints are now the rate limiting factor, not the supply of human labor... stop with the outdated 1980s thinking

No, it's Sleepystudent. He is strangely obsessed with China's demographics. It's something that will play out over decades and he'll spend every day of his life obsessed with it.

What a life to lead.