China demographics thread.

[subotai1]

US birth rates are soaring even without financial incentives including in majority-white states such as Ohio and New Hampshire. LOL. Imagine how high US birth rates will go after the Child Tax Credit is widely implemented

First of all, this source of data is notoriously wrong. Second, it does not show what you claim it does.
Birthrates in the US are falling, not growing.
Second, that graph is showing change vs previous months, NOT change in births in an aggregate fashion.
Third, this is provisional data, which means its NOT final, NOT complete and NOT curated.

 

[In4ser]

National power is a function of economic growth.

Meh, not really. Indian-American per capita personal income is higher than even native-born white-American incomes.

When you add new and foreign cultural influences, they often challenge the dominant social norms which stress the overall cohesiveness of a nation. While it and immigration aren't necessarily a bad thing, more often than not, during times of upheaval like now, it only serves to create new faultlines for things like identity politics and class warfare which exacerbate social problems.

IMHO, because of the present circumstances, America is in decline or "undergoing social transformation" and will be for the foreseeable future. Immigration is going to make things worse as many Americans already have issues of socioeconomic inequality like stagnant wages, limited supplies, and the rising cost of living combined with diminished opportunities which means they are less likely to be welcoming of new competition, especially if they are taking senior positions or higher-paying jobs from them. This may not be a big deal if it were not for the fact that most Indian immigrants are of Brahmin caste which only fuels the elitist mentality that already permeates the upper classes of American society which are blind to foundational risk occurring in the poor and middle class.

Moreover, just because a lot of Indian-Americans are able to get first-class seating doesn't fix the issue of a sinking ship. The late-Roman Empire had similarly sought out immigrants for resettlement to replenish its legions and labor force wracked by territorial overreach and internal divisions, only to find out that Gothic manpower which allowed many a Germanic General and even Emperors could not fix the underlying systematic weakness and likely worsened the situation.

In the long view, Historians may argue that the Fall of Rome and rising Germanic influence was a necessary evil for the "social transformation" of Europe into becoming the dominant industrial power in the Modern Age and it is true. However, it is unlikely that any of us will be around to experience that occurrence for the US and one must remember that Europe experienced a dark age in between Rome and its Renaissance too.

 

[ansy1968]

When you add new and foreign cultural influences, they often challenge the dominant social norms which stress the overall cohesiveness of a nation. While it and immigration aren't necessarily a bad thing, more often than not, during times of upheaval like now, it only serves to create new faultlines for things like identity politics and class warfare which exacerbate social problems.

IMHO, because of the present circumstances, America is in decline or "undergoing social transformation" and will be for the foreseeable future. Immigration is going to make things worse as many Americans already have issues of socioeconomic inequality like stagnant wages, limited supplies, and the rising cost of living combined with diminished opportunities which means they are less likely to be welcoming of new competition, especially if they are taking senior positions or higher-paying jobs from them. This may not be a big deal if it were not for the fact that most Indian immigrants are of Brahmin caste which only fuels the elitist mentality that already permeates the upper classes of American society which are blind to foundational risk occurring in the poor and middle class.

Moreover, just because a lot of Indian-Americans are able to get first-class seating doesn't fix the issue of a sinking ship. The late-Roman Empire had similarly sought out immigrants for resettlement to replenish its legions and labor force wracked by territorial overreach and internal divisions, only to find out that Gothic manpower could not fix the underlying systematic weakness and likely worsened the situation.

@In4ser bro good day how is the situation in the state, the rent moratorium? and the employment situation? My relative in the state want to come back here in the Philippine cause for them those unemployment check and other subsidies are not enough due to high cost of living. (in truth they are lazy having tasted white privilege)

 

[In4ser]

@In4ser bro good day how is the situation in the state, the rent moratorium? and the employment situation? My relative in the state want to come back here in the Philippine cause for them those unemployment check and other subsidies are not enough due to high cost of living. (in truth they are lazy having tasted white privilege)

It's more or less inactivity up top while the institutional rot continues below. According to the Farmer's Almanac, Texas will face a cold winter be worse than last year and it doesn't look like ERCOT has done very much to fix the electrical grid. I'm actually considering getting a solar-powered battery pack as a precaution.

I'm finding myself having less and less disposable income and a lot of my friends racking up debt. However since I'm considered middle class, so I haven't had to deal much with rent moratorium or unemployment checks bonuses ending but Texas is a Red State and so it has been trying to end government benefits early in general. Much of it is supposed to address the labor shortage and force the citizenry to settle or become indebted because as you mentioned the cost of living has been going up with food especially meat being particularly high. Regardless of their intentions though, I've noticed at many white-collar workplaces the amount of turnover in companies in what's being called the Great Resignation. Lots of people are frustrated with low pay or stagnant wages, lack of opportunities that they're just leaving, and with some people even without another job lined up afterward.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting what happens in the coming months, as the debate for the Infrastructure bill is coming up along with the debt ceiling talks in October as well as Flu season. Honestly, I wish there was good news but I don't really see anything but negative press anymore.

 

[broadsword]

What's the two sides? The only side effect is more science & technology

Sigh!

 

[gadgetcool5]

NW China county offers housing subsidies to families with at least two children

A county in Northwest China's Gansu Province recently announced to disburse subsidies of up to 40,000 yuan ($6,211) for couples who give birth to two or three children. The money is for buying houses, making the county China's first to introduce real estate subsidy under the third-child policy which was legalized in August.

Besides the house-buying subsidy for third-child families with Linze county's permanent household registration, Linze government plans to offer subsidy of up to 10,000 yuan per baby every year for local families with two or three children, until the babies turn 3 years old.

Raising 11 supporting policies towards families with two or three children, the government of Linze county released the trial implementation on Tuesday, which sets allowances for maternal and child health services, for infant care services and for children education.

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[Appix]

NW China county offers housing subsidies to families with at least two children

A county in Northwest China's Gansu Province recently announced to disburse subsidies of up to 40,000 yuan ($6,211) for couples who give birth to two or three children. The money is for buying houses, making the county China's first to introduce real estate subsidy under the third-child policy which was legalized in August.

Besides the house-buying subsidy for third-child families with Linze county's permanent household registration, Linze government plans to offer subsidy of up to 10,000 yuan per baby every year for local families with two or three children, until the babies turn 3 years old.

Raising 11 supporting policies towards families with two or three children, the government of Linze county released the trial implementation on Tuesday, which sets allowances for maternal and child health services, for infant care services and for children education.

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Why only one miniscule county most of us have never heard off? This is a national problem. There needs much more muscular policy. This is lacklustre.

 

[Totoro]

Because it's a test program. They want to see if it will have an effect. But it won't. 40 k yuan one time and 10k yuan per baby for second baby for 3 years is measly 11 000 dollars.

When a 50m2 house/flat in Harbin, for example costs anywhere from 100 to 200 thousand dollars. Sure, there that cheaper areas than that but compared to Beijing/Shanghai/shenzen etc that price would be a bargain.

And how many people would even have a family with 2 kids in a 50 m2 flat?

Some semblance of effect may be achieved when subsidies cover a fourth or a third of the cost of a flat/house. But it will also have a side effect of raising commercial housing prices.

And paying for a quarter of a Shanghai apartment is super expensive and not efficient even for the government. So any such subsidy plan is likely to stick to not so developed areas with fairly low housing prices.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Of course monetary incentives have to be high enough to be effective. Housing subsidy is only one part of a broad range of packages and cultural changes that are needed. You have to accept the fact that a very large amount of money will have to be spent, and that this amounts to investment in the country's future workforce and tax base.

In the Czech Republic, the average person's after-tax income is increased by onefold for each child:

In the long term, the effects of policy on birth rates are generally more modest, but still apparent. Sobotka told me that countries that spend more on supporting families

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. In the past two decades, Germany and Estonia have seen upticks in their birth rate as they have provided residents with more child-care options and better-paid parental leave.

One country that has seen a steep rise in its fertility rate is the Czech Republic. The magnitude of the increase is admittedly partly due to this number rebounding from a very low point: About 20 years ago, the Czech birth rate bottomed out, after having plunged in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the same time, the age at which Czech women tended to have their first child rose, which as a matter of mathematics will reduce birth rates for a time.

The precipitous rise since then has been attributed to improved economic and political stability, the plateauing of new mothers’ average age, and the support provided to parents, notably in the form of cash and tax credits. In the mid-2000s, the Czech Republic began giving parents about $10,000 per child, in monthly cash installments; today, this “parental allowance” is

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, which is almost as much as Czech workers, on average, earn per year after taxes. Lyman Stone, the director of research at the consultancy Demographic Intelligence, told me that he thinks cash support is particularly effective because families get to decide how to use it, and pointed out that spending on cash-based family benefits represents a higher proportion of Czech GDP than what is average for the OECD, a group representing 38 mostly wealthy countries.

Sobotka said that the Czech Republic’s policies seem to have led to more births over time, particularly of second and third children. He noted that birth rates there

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, which had a similar post-Soviet fertility plunge but a

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package of policies.

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Which, when you think of it, makes perfect sense, since the outlay to raise the child is borne entirely by the parents, often in 100 000's of USD, whereas the benefit of a future productive citizen is shared by all of society and does not particularly benefit the parents anymore.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Village in Guangdong offers cash subsidies to parents of newborns

Couples in a village in South China’s Guangdong Province will receive up to 3,300 yuan ($510) each month for their newborn babies born after September 1, the latest place to offer cash to families since the legalization of China’s third-child policy in August.

Since early September, Huangzhugen village in Zhanjiang has been promoting a new local family planning policy, under which couples will receive subsidies until their babies turn 2 and a half years old, Zhanjiang Daily reported on Tuesday.

Parents of babies born after September 1 will receive 3,000 to 3,300 yuan each month, totaling up to 99,000 yuan for each baby, the report said.

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