I'm interested in this. Can you elaborate?
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Shrug, bye.
Speak for yourself. I've got over 50 years left.
Oh no, and in 40 years, China will have fewer births than Lithuania, and in 80 years, less than Vatican City, and then 97 years, it'll have no births. LOL This is the difference between knowing how to use a calculator and actually having common sense to know that populations fluctuate and constantly adjust to environmental factors.
Is not as easy as just taking a calculator and plunge numbers, first, this is COVID related, so as people fear of COVID disappear, is likely that there will be a mini baby boom, also there are a lot others unknown factors that could lead to more birth or less births. One thing is for sure, the burden pressure of having more children will fall on very young women while the burden of having less children will fall on society. so, choices. That is not only in China but globally. So is probably that "modern feminism" will have to take a back seat for a while.
First we need to make sure that we can't blame women for the current TFR crisis. Is there a sizeable population of men who want children but cannot find a woman willing to realize their dream? Or is the current TFR a consensus between men and women based on a common attitude problem such as hedonism, fear of economic consequences, etc. The abortion rate also factors into this assessment.
In general there seems to be a lack of research concerning low TFR, no A/B testing of social policies or any other fact-based approach. It's even possible that some Chinese leaders silently welcome the low birth rates because of their fetish for rising per capita GDP figures. A shrinking population will let them escape the middle income trap sooner.
In general there seems to be a lack of research concerning low TFR, no A/B testing of social policies or any other fact-based approach. It's even possible that some Chinese leaders silently welcome the low birth rates because of their fetish for rising per capita GDP figures. A shrinking population will let them escape the middle income trap sooner.
I don’t think any Chinese would tend to blame women for population crisis, but those extreme feminists or princess mentality ones who seek unrealistic requirements for a partner are definitely one of the causes. Or at least that just from my point of view.
I don't think will be a "direct blame" on women but is obvious that as worldwide pro-natalism policies coupled with nationalism grow globally the burden pressure for women to have more children younger will also grow. Like reducing the easy access to birth control methods. Also will affect non child bearing groups.
One thing that nobody is considering is the effect that the Central Bank induced assets bubbles and stagnation of wealth transfer are having in young men, denying young men access to accessible capital and assets and forcing them to live with parents longer therefore making them less attractive to potential partners.
supercat
Major
But China is no longer an agrarian society that needed sufficient manpower to cultivate the farmland, perform public work, and fulfill military duties. In fact, some young people have some difficulties finding satisfying jobs in today's China.
Yes, education, vocational training, and the R&D of science and technologies that can increase the per capita and total productivity is probably more important than the growth in raw manpower for China's future at this stage.
PeoplesPoster
Junior Member
If your going to make that argument the same could be said of the princelings and fuerdai who can be incredibly self centered and prone to infidelity, hardly attractive to women might consider starting a family.
Interesting analysis by DukeofQin
A lot of energy and money (thousands of dollars in vet bills and pet food and grooming) coming from well educated, middle class females going towards their pets when traditionally that energy would have bene put towards raising a child/children. This phenomenon is not simply a Chinese issue but also rank in the developed OECD.
Anecdotally, i've seen it when women unironically say that their pets are the same as a human child, even going so far as to pressure the government for legislative changes, for eg in Denmark you can bring your dogs (not service animals) onto the subway whereas as far back as the 2000s, this was unheard of.
So what is the solution? There is no easy solution, are we going to ban under 30 year old women from having pets? barring them from college until they have kids? No developed OECD nation has successfully solved this population crisis and importing africans and arabs is merely a band aid solution, effectively vampirically leeching from the human capital of other nations.
A lot of energy and money (thousands of dollars in vet bills and pet food and grooming) coming from well educated, middle class females going towards their pets when traditionally that energy would have bene put towards raising a child/children. This phenomenon is not simply a Chinese issue but also rank in the developed OECD.
Anecdotally, i've seen it when women unironically say that their pets are the same as a human child, even going so far as to pressure the government for legislative changes, for eg in Denmark you can bring your dogs (not service animals) onto the subway whereas as far back as the 2000s, this was unheard of.
So what is the solution? There is no easy solution, are we going to ban under 30 year old women from having pets? barring them from college until they have kids? No developed OECD nation has successfully solved this population crisis and importing africans and arabs is merely a band aid solution, effectively vampirically leeching from the human capital of other nations.
The issue is not stagnant/slowly declining populations. That's fine. The issue is a precipitate drop like going from 1.7 TFR in 2017 to 1.18 in 2021. That's a 50% drop in four years.
Sure, a lot of this is due to lock downs, and hopefully that will be corrected now that the lock downs are over. But bad habits have a way of sticking around, as we've learned in Japan and South Korea. 1.18 TFR is an all of society threat to the Chinese nation. It will have severe economic consequences 10-20 years down the line.
A growing population without enough resources is certainly a terrible combination, but that can hardly be said about China today. To maintain its economic vitality, China needs a balanced population structure, because even though having more young people doesn't necessarily create growth, having more old people certainly won't create growth.
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