China demographics thread.

[Petrolicious88]

Housing costs in China are insane and they will remain insane as long as the state doesn't completely nationalise the entire sector and subsidises cheap housing to young couples. That's a major reason why people don't have kids, it costs a fortune to buy a place. It's time for the CCP to show that they are a communist party in more than name.

Frankly, they sat on their asses as the gigantic failure of the 1 child policy was allowed to fester *and* the housing market spun out of control, many years ago.

Ironically the more kids you have the more competition you will have in for jobs, housing, food, resources; exactly why people are reluctant to have more kids in the first place. In about 30 years, global warming will make resource competition even more intense.

Instead of focusing on having more kids, 2 trillion yuan extra a year should spent on education, improving individual productivity, automation, etc..

 

[tonyget]

Ironically the more kids you have the more competition you will have in for jobs, housing, food, resources; exactly why people are reluctant to have more kids in the first place. In about 30 years, global warming will make resource competition even more intense.

Instead of focusing on having more kids, 2 trillion yuan extra a year should spent on education, improving individual productivity, automation, etc..

Housing is only high in first tier big-cities，in small places house price is actually dropping. It it understandable that young people want to move to big-cities because of better job opportunities healthcare education etc，but from a macro-level perspective having all people crowded in a few big-cities isn‘t good for the country.

Automation and AI can help alleviate labour shortage caused by aging population，but it doesn't help consumption. You still need people to buy the goods you have produced.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Housing is only high in first tier big-cities，in small places house price is actually dropping. It it understandable that young people want to move to big-cities because of better job opportunities healthcare education etc，but from a macro-level perspective having all people crowded in a few big-cities isn‘t good for the country.

Automation and AI can help alleviate labour shortage caused by aging population，but it doesn't help consumption. You still need people to buy the goods you have produced.

Right. Jobs, housing and food are not fixed resources! You can... build more housing. You can also create more jobs. You can also grow more food. Even countries much poorer and more overcrowded than China do not have people starving, thanks to the wonders of modern agricultural production. In the modern day famines are usually not caused by too many people but rather because of supply chain disruptions, civil wars, or other things like that.

The Great Leap Forward was China's last major famine and it was entirely due to poor policy of over-collectivizing agriculture and then top-town totalitarian mandates. Those are the things we should watch out for.

 

[PiSigma]

Almost all industrialized nations face an unfavorable demographic profile in the future like China does, including the U.S.:

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Goldman also thinks the US can get Chinese people to go to US because they want to vote! I don't know to laugh or cry at such stupidity .

 

[semiconprof]

Having said all that is demographic decline permanant? Nope. The most famous is example of this is France. In 1907 France's population peaked at 40,400,000 and dropped to a low of 38,500,000 in 1920. It was not until ~20 years later in 1929 that the population returned to 40,500,000. Today France's population is 65,200,000 and this was in large part due to the 1950s and 1960s. So the lessons from this scenario are:
(1) Demographic trends take decades to change. There are no quick and easy solutions and scapegoats to demographics like some people in this thread want.
(2) Nobody in 1907 France could/would have predicated the 1950s and 1960s baby boom. Sometimes the future changes to demographics are outside the control of the government and simply unpredictable.

WW1 happened between 1907 to 1929. War is often a great reset button that solves lots of social/economical problems. So unless China is about to enter a great war in the near future, I won't consider France as a good counter-example.

 

[PiSigma]

WW1 happened between 1907 to 1929. War is often a great reset button that solves lots of social/economical problems. So unless China is about to enter a great war in the near future, I won't consider France as a good counter-example.

Wth? Try 1914-1918. Where did you learn your history?

 

[KenC]

In certain part of Hainan, Guangzhou , Fujian etc. there used to be areas designated for overseas Chinese or returnees.
Perhaps the government can look at attracting overseas Chinese diaspora in view of population growth situation.
Here's CGTN report on the next generation of immigrants living in Mexico that are looking to go back to their ancestral home.

 

[KenC]

Another thing that matters less for China nowadays is migration of its elites and brightest students to the West.

In fact there might well be reverse migration from US, given the huge rise in hate crimes against Asian recently.

The 40 year old Asian lady who was pushed into moving train was of Chinese descent. She worked as a senior manager in the big accounting firm Deloitte. This might not be directly related to the hatred against Asian. But there are way too many lunatics and homeless people in US.

 

[semiconprof]

Prof Wang Feng, from the University of California Irvine and who specialises in Asian demographics, said the results showed the root causes ran deeper than the policymakers realised.

“The policies announced last year are mostly rhetoric, or at most like Band-Aids,” he told the Guardian.

“Without addressing the deeply rooted causes discouraging young Chinese from getting married and having children, from gender inequality to high living cost, what we are seeing now is likely just the beginning of a further decline in birthrate and a prolonged process of population decline in China.”

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What I'm going to say is not politically correct. BUT, gender inequality is not a root cause for young Chinese not wanting to get married and having children. Gender inequality was WORSE back when Chinese birthrate was high. Gender inequality was atrocious back when people were breeding like rabbits.

 

[Vichysoy]

Housing costs in China are insane and they will remain insane as long as the state doesn't completely nationalise the entire sector and subsidises cheap housing to young couples. That's a major reason why people don't have kids, it costs a fortune to buy a place. It's time for the CCP to show that they are a communist party in more than name.

Frankly, they sat on their asses as the gigantic failure of the 1 child policy was allowed to fester *and* the housing market spun out of control, many years ago.

The other important things is the thinking of young Chinese people . I don't know where they read or learn . Some of them claimed that wishing to have a baby is bullshit, that is human selfishness. Obviously, by anyway , the thinking of Western go into the Chinese society and impact negative on it .