China demographics thread.

[Bellum_Romanum]

Why are poorer countries in Chinas periphery like the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and African countries aren not having any issues when it comes to their fertility? It seems that economic development and high incomes make people more buget conscious or their spending habits become more materialistic, hedonistic, nihilistic and not geared towards creating or having a family.

The issue of low fertility rates are a developed countries problem which is why they have a pretty robust immigration which then causes conflict or issues with the majority population.

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Have you been to rural China？Nowadays there is no young people left in rural，it's all old people.

And there is no such thing as poor people having more children is a problem. The way birth rate calculated is based on national average，not on a per family base.

For instance：if there are 10 families，9 of them don't have any child，one of them have 10 children. Then the statistics shows 1 child per family on average. But if there is a 3 children cap to be imposed，those 9 families are not affected since they don't want child anyway，the one family that wants to have children can now only have 3. As a result，statistics shows 0.3 child per family on average.

You see the logic now？As a nation，you cannot force those who don't want to have children to have children，you have to rely on those who want children to have as many children as possible. So the overall birthrate won't look to bad.

Have you been able to visit rural China and confirm the things you wrote above or are you basing your opinion on someone else's lived experience. I am not being confrontational with this question, am just asking if you had the opportunity to be able to see it for yourself the situation in whatever part of China you visited.

 

[Appix]

“This suggests China’s total population may have reached its peak in 2021. It also indicates China’s potential growth is likely slowing faster than expected.”

Beijing has announced major reforms to address the decline, including raising the retirement age.

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has replaced the two-child policy that was introduced in 2016 and had sparked a slight increase in births before falling again.

The high cost of living, delayed marriages and lack of social mobility are frequently cited as contributing factors to young Chinese people’s reluctance to have children. In response, Beijing has

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, and pledged better access to childcare and maternity leave.

Prof Wang Feng, from the University of California Irvine and who specialises in Asian demographics, said the results showed the root causes ran deeper than the policymakers realised.

“The policies announced last year are mostly rhetoric, or at most like Band-Aids,” he told the Guardian.

“Without addressing the deeply rooted causes discouraging young Chinese from getting married and having children, from gender inequality to high living cost, what we are seeing now is likely just the beginning of a further decline in birthrate and a prolonged process of population decline in China.”

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[Overbom]

“Without addressing the deeply rooted causes discouraging young Chinese from getting married and having children, from gender inequality to high living cost,

But banning private edu and house prices decrease/stabilization directly reduced the "high living cost".

With incomes increasing and houses slightly decreasing, I think that's pretty good for 1 year. Who knows, maybe in 2022 we would have more measures

 

[mossen]

Housing costs in China are insane and they will remain insane as long as the state doesn't completely nationalise the entire sector and subsidises cheap housing to young couples. That's a major reason why people don't have kids, it costs a fortune to buy a place. It's time for the CCP to show that they are a communist party in more than name.

Frankly, they sat on their asses as the gigantic failure of the 1 child policy was allowed to fester *and* the housing market spun out of control, many years ago.

 

[Chilled_k6]

Absolutely a CALAMITY.

Chinese births in 2018 were already very low. To drop in 3 years another 30% is truly catastrophic. Could easily be the single greatest drop even percentage-wise in modern history.

It's the generational divide with post-90s mentality when it comes to kids coming into effect here. The bump in births from 2016 to 2017 was driven by the older group who already have their first born. I would also add covid effect compounding.

Honestly most worrying to me would be rapid decline of women in the fertile group in the next decade. I read somewhere it will be something like 40% drop. The numbers and trends are what they are, the housing measures and etc won't change this, but China need drastic measures to change people's mentality now to deal with the years and decades after.

 

[mossen]

if the birth rate isn't increased, everything will be ruined with China dominated by Anglos.

This is bullshit. America's population increased by only 0.1% last year.



Also, if we're talking about Anglos specifically, then their population has been in outright decline for several years. All the pop growth is Latinx+immigrants, and even that is barely making a budge.

 

[zgx09t]

In a way, it's the reversal of 50s 60s and 70s excesses, when the crude birth rates ranged from over 40 to 20. There was no way China could sustain that expansion forever. Those cohorts entirely make up the over 65 population of 250 million or so in China right now. The contribution of this group to the Chinese nation is tremendous. Just look around to see what they have done, starting from the man, Xi. It's entirely unreasonable to replace all of them on 1 to 1 ratio. But the next ones born this decade and prior wouldn't have to start from dirt poor and they have older generations' shoulder to stand on, meaning their productivity would be many times higher than those in 60's and older cohorts when they started out in the labor force. So from the get go, I don't really buy the mantra next wave can't replace the ones exiting out. And one more thing is when Western academics and experts say things about China, you have to be extra careful, because most of the time, they'd be completely clueless and dumb as a wet board, like what they professed on China's economic development, innovation, science, so on and so forth. So will be this China demographics, no exception. TFR is a made up imaginary number. What one needs to focus on is not replacement, but sustainability, optimum size of the population, quality of life, productivity, etc. China with a population size of 1 or 1.1 billion with much much higher productivity and quality of life is a magnitude more formidable and stronger than China today.

 

[sinophilia]

This is bullshit. America's population increased by only 0.1% last year.

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Also, if we're talking about Anglos specifically, then their population has been in outright decline for several years. All the pop growth is Latinx+immigrants, and even that is barely making a budge.

Just because America is turning into a piece of garbage doesn't mean China should rest on her laurels.

I mean sure, China has been superior in most social aspects for a long time. Any crime you can think of whether it be rape, murder, assault, burglary... Drug use and overdoses... Homelessness... School shootings and public massacres in general... General social stability and happiness... Mental illness... The list could go on for hours.

Does that mean China should stop improving just because White Americans are in population decline now? Of course not. Also, it would behoove you to know, there is still a lot of elite high-IQ immigration to America, which might not be overwhelmingly White but is a net value add all the same. If there is a smart Iranian or Indian or some outlier anywhere else, they will probably still end up in America 20 years from now. So even though their lower class will increase, their upper class population will not decline as fast as the White decline indicates.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Any population increase in the US is due to immigrants. The vast majority of them are not white. Non-whites are more likely to be discriminated in education. The controlling white population in the US is declining. Recent figures show life expectancy in the US has dropped for the first time in US history due to they say white men are committing suicide more than ever. So what advantage does the US have they say in regards to population? A larger younger blue collar labor pool? I've seen old Chinese women carry a load on their back that would be shunned by the average American. I've been talking to friends that just had recently college graduated children new to the workforce and they're saying the same thing that their kids think working is too hard for them and they don't want to do it. Chinese have a culture of taking care of their elderly. In the US they throw them into a convalescent home at the government's expense which is what they're talking about the costs to the government taking care of the old. Everyone has different problems for different reasons and the US is notorious for displacing their problems as everyone else's problems and that usually creates more problems. It's more important to Americans that people around the world think like them so they can dictate and therefore be in control. They worry about too many Chinese in this world yet they want to make Chinese think there's a crisis brewing at a declining population...? Usually people who want to be the authority and they contradict themselves are just trying to confuse people into not thinking so that they just blindly obey without question. They don't like it when people question their orders because they don't feel like they're in control that they have to bother convincing people by answering questions.

 

[Broccoli]

Housing costs in China are insane and they will remain insane as long as the state doesn't completely nationalise the entire sector and subsidises cheap housing to young couples. That's a major reason why people don't have kids, it costs a fortune to buy a place. It's time for the CCP to show that they are a communist party in more than name.

Frankly, they sat on their asses as the gigantic failure of the 1 child policy was allowed to fester *and* the housing market spun out of control, many years ago.

Housing costs are insane everywhere in the world expect maybe the most poorest nations, for example in US studio apartment rents are up to 2000$, nobody's gonna have that many kids in well doing economies. I don't believe any country is going to see rise of birth rates any time soon since even India is slowing down.

Maybe giving women 10-15% tax cut for every kid they have could work.

Also, women's demands for men have risen globally (except maybe again in poorest nations) and looks, height, weight, salary and other things matter a lot more than before.

Personally I don't see things changing much no matter what govts do.