China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I was hoping for 12,000km - 14,000km for JL3. I always thought the idea of turning Bohai into a naval bastion for SSBN is a pretty good idea.
It probably is. There's no reason to take the 10,000km number seriously (and technically, it says over 10,000km, which 12,000-14,000km is). The better way would be to examine the capability of land-based missiles like the DF-41 and extrapolate the performance of the JL-3 from that. Also, far older competitors like the Trident D5 are said to reach over 12,000km - there's no reason to think China can't match that level of technology now.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think it is pathetic they assume that the JL-3, which is a recent missile, would have less capabilities than a multiple decade old Trident II.
All the data we have leads to the conclusion that China has achieved parity with the US and other Western nations in terms of solid rocket technology.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
I really don't understand this author Kristin Huang why JL3 launched from the Yellow sea is not feasible. The distance of yellow sea to say Washington is roughly 10000 km And will be protected by the air asset nobody is going to lay a finger on the the launching platform. NO surface ship is going to dare sail so close to the coast
The only problem is the launching platform of Type 96 is not ready yet The missile has been tested 3 times probably requiring 2 or 3 mores testing. China need to built type 96 ASAP bar none
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The JL-3: the new missile ‘raising the cost’ of a US fight with China​

  • The submarine-launched weapon has a much greater range than previous versions and could put the PLA within striking distance of the continental USA, a report says
  • The missiles are an essential element in the Chinese military’s ability to respond to an attack, analyst says

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Published: 10:00pm, 24 Jan, 2021

The JL-3 has a range of up to 10,000km. Photo: Handout


The JL-3 has a range of up to 10,000km. Photo: Handout
It has already been
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but so far China is saying nothing. The JL-3, the country’s most advanced submarine-launched long-range missile, is projected to be fully integrated with the PLA’s
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in 2025, but China has not officially confirmed that it is even under development.

Nevertheless, it is still a threat and one of a number of missiles that could put the People’s Liberation Army within striking distance of the continental United States, according to an American military report.
Observers say that threat will give China a credible nuclear deterrence effect and second strike power against rivals.

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When the JL-3 is up and running on Chinese submarines, it should be able to deliver multiple warheads – including nuclear – and have a range of more than 10,000km (6,200 miles).


That is the conclusion of the US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Centre (Nasic) in its Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report, released this month.

In the report, the centre said China was developing and testing offensive missiles, as well as upgrading others.

“In late November 2018, China tested a new JL-3 [submarine-launched ballistic missile] in the Bohai Sea ... The JL-3 has a greater range than the JL-2,” the report said, referring to the missile’s earlier version.

The report said the number of warheads on Chinese missiles capable of threatening the United States was expected to grow in the next five years to well over 100, up from the 16 of its most powerful land-based equivalent, the DF-41, that China has now.

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The conclusion is largely supported by the Federation of American Scientists, which came out with its own report on January 19 saying the JL-3 was a major advance on the JL-2 missile still in service.

“The biggest news in the China section of the Nasic report is that the new JL-3 ... will be capable of delivering multiple warheads and have a range of more than 10,000km. That is a significant increase in capability compared with the JL-2,” the FAS report said. The JL-2 has a range of about 7,200km.

Despite this increased range, even the best Chinese submarine would not be able to hit the US mainland with a JL-3 from the South China Sea, the federation said. To do that, the vessel would have to launch the missile from the Bohai Sea, an area closer to South Korea and Japan, giving Chinese submarines less chance of going undetected.
Uh did you misread the article? The author says firing from SCS would be not possible, not from Yellow Sea.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also, far older competitors like the Trident D5 are said to reach over 12,000km - there's no reason to think China can't match that level of technology now.
Range is a function of technology and size. The Trident is 59000kg, JL-2 for comparison is 42000kg. Until we get some actual weight or size measurements you can't really tell.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
She said basing in yellow sea is problematic because the sub will be detected and why is not possible in SCS ?even more confusing
Probably because SCS is "shallow".
Screenshot_20210125-030519.jpg
But the average depth at these regions is 1500m - 2000m.But what submarine operates at 1000m?Submarines can't dive that deep.

SCMP links almost always some US studies or "sources".

Considering the investments into other platforms of Air, Surface fleet, Space Assets etc
I think Chinese next generation Submarines and missiles would be in the same league ( top notch).

Why would China lag in Submarines with 16 trillion Dollars of Privilege? Did they suddenly forget about Submarines?
 
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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I really don't understand this author Kristin Huang why JL3 launched from the Yellow sea is not feasible. The distance of yellow sea to say Washington is roughly 10000 km And will be protected by the air asset nobody is going to lay a finger on the the launching platform. NO surface ship is going to dare sail so close to the coast
The only problem is the launching platform of Type 96 is not ready yet The missile has been tested 3 times probably requiring 2 or 3 mores testing. China need to built type 96 ASAP bar none
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View attachment 67971

The JL-3: the new missile ‘raising the cost’ of a US fight with China​

  • The submarine-launched weapon has a much greater range than previous versions and could put the PLA within striking distance of the continental USA, a report says
  • The missiles are an essential element in the Chinese military’s ability to respond to an attack, analyst says

Topic |
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Published: 10:00pm, 24 Jan, 2021

The JL-3 has a range of up to 10,000km. Photo: Handout


The JL-3 has a range of up to 10,000km. Photo: Handout
It has already been
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but so far China is saying nothing. The JL-3, the country’s most advanced submarine-launched long-range missile, is projected to be fully integrated with the PLA’s
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in 2025, but China has not officially confirmed that it is even under development.

Nevertheless, it is still a threat and one of a number of missiles that could put the People’s Liberation Army within striking distance of the continental United States, according to an American military report.
Observers say that threat will give China a credible nuclear deterrence effect and second strike power against rivals.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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When the JL-3 is up and running on Chinese submarines, it should be able to deliver multiple warheads – including nuclear – and have a range of more than 10,000km (6,200 miles).


That is the conclusion of the US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Centre (Nasic) in its Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report, released this month.

In the report, the centre said China was developing and testing offensive missiles, as well as upgrading others.

“In late November 2018, China tested a new JL-3 [submarine-launched ballistic missile] in the Bohai Sea ... The JL-3 has a greater range than the JL-2,” the report said, referring to the missile’s earlier version.

The report said the number of warheads on Chinese missiles capable of threatening the United States was expected to grow in the next five years to well over 100, up from the 16 of its most powerful land-based equivalent, the DF-41, that China has now.

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The conclusion is largely supported by the Federation of American Scientists, which came out with its own report on January 19 saying the JL-3 was a major advance on the JL-2 missile still in service.

“The biggest news in the China section of the Nasic report is that the new JL-3 ... will be capable of delivering multiple warheads and have a range of more than 10,000km. That is a significant increase in capability compared with the JL-2,” the FAS report said. The JL-2 has a range of about 7,200km.

Despite this increased range, even the best Chinese submarine would not be able to hit the US mainland with a JL-3 from the South China Sea, the federation said. To do that, the vessel would have to launch the missile from the Bohai Sea, an area closer to South Korea and Japan, giving Chinese submarines less chance of going undetected.
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From the drive warzone article
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FAS notes that the expected range of the new JL-3 means that a Chinese SSBN homeported in the South China Sea would still need to
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to be able to hit targets in the continental United States, potentially having to venture far out into the Pacific.
At the same time, the report curiously does not mention the two additional submarines that are being added to the Chinese SSBN fleet now.

The NASIC report projection for the increase in Chinese nuclear ICBM warheads that can reach the United States is inconsistent and self-contradicting,” the FAS analysis contends. While at one point in the report NASIC claims that this number will grow to “well over 200” within the next five years, later on, it provides the figure of “well over 100” in the same period, the same as was projected in the 2017 report. As FAS notes, the authors of the report “might simply have forgotten to update the text.”


FAS has an agenda. There seems to be quite a big chasm between what FAS wants to hear, What is being heard and what's noises are being produced.

Damn, everybody has an agenda. What a world.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
But FAS has problem reconciling with numerous sighting of DF 26 over several province The lates DF 26 sighted in Qingzhou , Shandong by Bohai sea and Korla in xin jiang. It is long article I just quote excerpt click the link below for full report

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China’s New DF-26 Missile Shows Up At Base In Eastern China​

By
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• January 21, 2020

By Hans M. Kristensen
Pictures taken recently by Maxar Technologies’ satellites show a large number of launchers for the DF-26 intermediate-range missile operating at a training site approximately 9 kilometers (5.7 miles) south of Qingzhou City in China’s Shandong Province.

This is the first time the DF-26 has been seen operating in the area and marks a new phase in the integration of the missile into the Chinese military. The DF-26 is dual-capable, which means it can deliver both nuclear and conventional warheads and is thought to have a range of approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,490 miles). The DF-26 was first fielded in 2016 and the Pentagon’s 2019 report on Chinese military developments
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China has up to 80 DF-26 launchers with 80-160 missiles (each launcher may have one reload).


The DF-26 is an INF-weapons, which means its range puts it in the category of ground-launched missiles that Russia and the United States banned in their arsenals for 32 years until Russia violated the treaty and the United States withdrew in protest.
China’s first DF-26 brigade stood up in April 2018 approximately 630 kilometers (390 miles) southwest of Qingzhou outside Xinyang in Henan Province. Over the past two years, DF-26s have appeared at several locations across China and significant production is visible at a factory outside Beijing.

DF-26 Sightings At Qingzhou
The Qingzhou site has been active for many decades and appears to be part of a missile support base operated by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). CIA initially
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the location as I-TU, a misspelling of its former name Yidu County, since changed to Qingzhou. The main base is located in the southwest district of the city [36.6774°, 118.4541°] and includes three large high-bay garages for servicing missile launchers. Over the years, several nuclear missile launchers have been seen operating there: DF-3A IRBM, DF-21 SRBM, DF-31/A ICBM, and now DF-26 IRBM.

The facility where the DF-26s recently appeared is about 9 kilometers (5.7 miles) of Qingzhou to the south near a location identified on Google Earth as Zhuanghanmiaocun. The DF-26 launchers first appeared there on satellite images in November 2019, when a dozen launchers were seen. In early January 2020, Google Earth loaded a Maxar image dated December 11, 2019 (note: image dates displayed on Google Earth are for some reason one day early compared to the actual date the image was taken), which was first
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by Twitter user @DexReloaded.

During December, several images taken by Maxar satellites show up to 18 DF-26 launchers, approximately the same number that was displayed at Xinyang in 2018 and at Jilantai in 2019.
The most recent image dated January 8, 2020, shows two groups of DF-26 launchers: one to the north (36.6026°, 118.4803°), between garages and on an old DF-3A circular launch pad; and a second group to the south (36.5999°, 118.4835°) on a cleared space where a former DF-31 launch pad is still visible. Also visible on the image are numerous support vehicles needed to support or repair the launchers when deployed. The DF-26 launchers are probably at the site as part of their integration into a new brigade.
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DF-26 launchers at Qingzhou training site. Click on image to view full size.
DF-26 Sightings Elsewhere
As mentioned above, China stood up its first DF-26 unit in 2018.
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from the activation ceremony shows 24 trucks parked under a temporary cover: 18 DF-26 TELs and 4 support vehicles. If each brigade has 18 launchers, then the 80 launchers reported by the Pentagon would be sufficient for four brigades. Not all have become operational yet but DF-26s are beginning to appear at various sites across China: Xinyang (Henan), Qingzhou (Shandong), Dengshahe (Liaoning), Korla (Xinjiang), possibly Jinhua (Anhui), and the large training area at Jilantai (Inner Mongolia).


The standing up of the first DF-26 brigade at Xinyang in April 2018 was
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on Chinese news media with pictures and videos from the ceremony. But even before that, in January 2018, DF-26 launchers showed up at the field training site of the 651st Brigade near Dengshahe northeast of Dalian (Liaoning).

Then, in January 2019, Chinese media
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that DF-26s had carried out an exercise in the “Northwest China’s plateau and desert areas.” The operation was later
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to the large new training area west of Jilantai (Inner Mongolia), where they
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in April-May 2019 together with DF-41s, DF-31AGs, and DF-17s before being shipped to Beijing for the parade in September 2019.

DF-26 training at Jilantai has been a favorite propaganda tool for the Chinese government with several test-launches shown on various news media outlets (
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and
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). A propaganda documentary jointly produced by the Political Bureau of the Central Military Commission and the PLA News and Communication Center and broadcast by CCTV by the end of 2019 included a brief clip showing a DF-26 launch. The launch site is geolocated in the figure below:
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Geolocation of DF-26 test launch at Jilantai training field. Click on image to view full size.
During those months, DF-26 launchers were also seen operating at the 646 Brigade base in Korla (Ku’erle) in the Xinjiang province in western China. The first launcher was seen in April and two more in August 2019 (see image below).
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DF-26 launchers at Korla missile base. Click on image to view full size.
DF-26 Production And Numbers
The Pentagon estimated in 2019 that China had fielded up to 80 DF-26 launchers. Not all of those are fully operationally deployed; some brigades are still being equipped. Noted China military expert Mark Stokes
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maybe two or three DF-26 brigades a year ago, each with 6-12 launchers. So the display of 18 launchers at Xinyang and Qingzhou is obviously interesting: did it include 6-12 launchers from a second brigade or will DF-26 brigades have more launchers?

Eighteen launchers were also the number
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at Jilantai.
DF-26 launchers are produced at a factory near Fangshan in the outskirt of Beijing. The factory has been expanded significantly during the past decade with several large vehicle assembly halls added. The factory also appears to be involved in the production of DF-21 MRBM launchers as well as various air-defense systems. The main parking area for DF-26 launchers is in the middle of the southern end of the complex (see image below).

see image below).

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DF-26 production at Fangshan factory. Click on image to view full size.
The first DF-26 launcher at Fangshan appeared on satellite images in March 2009 and four or five launchers were normally visible through 2016 when deployment began. The number of visible launchers increased in late-2017 and early-2018 to 15-25, and increased in late-2018 and early-2019 to 20-38 launcher, until reaching 51 visible launchers in early September 2019. Not all of the launchers seen were fully assembled; of the 51 launchers visible in September 2019, for example, only 38 appeared to be complete. The various stages of assembly are clearly visible on the images (see image below).

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gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think it is pathetic they assume that the JL-3, which is a recent missile, would have less capabilities than a multiple decade old Trident II.
All the data we have leads to the conclusion that China has achieved parity with the US and other Western nations in terms of solid rocket technology.

The Trident II may be multiple decades old, but it is still in service. A variant of it is supposed to stay in service until 2042. The current Chinese JL-2 range and accuracy-wise has probably around the same capability as the Trident I.

In any case, the Trident II's fearsomeness is not because it can hit Asia from the Gulf of Mexico, it's because US subs are deployed all over the world. In that case the range is not so important. If China's subs are confined to the Bohai Sea or the SCS that's their main disadvantage.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The Trident II may be multiple decades old, but it is still in service. A variant of it is supposed to stay in service until 2042. The current Chinese JL-2 range and accuracy-wise has probably around the same capability as the Trident I.

In any case, the Trident II's fearsomeness is not because it can hit Asia from the Gulf of Mexico, it's because US subs are deployed all over the world. In that case the range is not so important. If China's subs are confined to the Bohai Sea or the SCS that's their main disadvantage.

Why basing in SCS is disadvantage? SCS has deep channel suitable for Chinese sub to hide and fire their missile It s well protected by bases in SCS that monitor and track any US surface ships , carrier, submarine long before it reached SCS. Yongshin naval bases will act as screen to protect Yulin naval base
Without interference from surface and air asset there is not much US navy can do to prevent China from basing their new nuke sub in SCS. JL3 has the range to hit eastern US from bastion in SCS That is why SCS is so important

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Although the government has not officially used the term bastion, Chinese military analysts have widely assumed that the state is systematically implementing this strategy. Indeed, there are clear advantages to this approach. The northern and central parts of the South China Sea are deep enough for large nuclear submarines to operate. The temperature and salinity of the water there create natural barriers for sound propagation and submarine detection. The presence of busy civilian shipping lanes further complicates the underwater sound environment and helps Chinese SSBNs avoid detection. Moreover, Chinese SSBNs in the South China Sea can readily receive surface and aerial protection from China’s South Sea Fleet and other general-purpose forces. China’s growing power projection capability and newly built dual-use infrastructure on Hainan, the Paracel Islands, and the Spratly Islands are further advancing its capacity to protect SSBNs deployed in nearby waters.

Aside from the South China Sea, it is possible that China’s SSBNs may also use parts of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea as secondary patrol areas. China has an important submarine base near Qingdao in Shandong Province, and satellites have often spotted Chinese nuclear submarines, including SSBNs, in its vicinity.28 Although the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow and the East China Seas are not ideal for nuclear submarines, operating SSBNs from these waters would make their locations less predictable and prevent the United States from concentrating its stra
tegic ASW efforts in one area.29
 
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