China and India relationship


Status
Not open for further replies.

weig2000

Captain
The next step. Ambassador Bhadrakumar on the changing position of India one day before Xi's visit:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I love this:

"In comparison, Japan stalks China wherever the latter goes, but its actual capacity to match China is in serious doubt. Also, in the ultimate analysis, Japanese businessmen go only when conditions are perfect - unlike his Chinese or South Korean counterparts."
 

weig2000

Captain
Here is a recent WSJ commentary on India-Japan-China relationships.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Modi Embraces Abe; Still Holds China Close

The Dangers of Reading Too Much Into a Bear Hug in Kyoto

Sept. 9, 2014 12:27 a.m. ET

BEIJING—India and Japan are both embroiled in territorial disputes with China. Both view the growing economic and military heft of their neighbor with apprehension. And both are looking for ways to enhance their security.

So when India's new Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe gave each other a bear hug in Kyoto, it was tempting to read into the gesture something more than just a warm personal chemistry. Many saw it also as a strategic embrace, one aimed at encircling China from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific.

Tempting—but simplistic. The dynamics of the relationship between India, Japan and China, three Asian giants—are immensely complex. And this complexity is serving Mr. Modi well in his first months in office.

Playing Japan and China against each other will be one of the big opportunities of his tenure in office. If he gets it right, he could end up with the investment he desperately needs to succeed, as well as the additional security that India craves.

So far, he's making the right moves. He came away last week from Japan, his first overseas visit to a major country as prime minister, with a pledge of almost $35 billion in investment over five years and an enhanced "special" strategic and global partnership between India and Japan.

That could translate into sales of Japanese military technology for a country that has the only active land-border dispute with China.

Later this month, Mr. Modi will host Chinese President Xi Jinping in New Delhi. Expect eye-catching investment proposals from the Chinese side, too. When they met a few weeks ago at a summit of Brics countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—Mr. Xi told Mr. Modi that "China and India are long-lasting strategic and cooperative partners, rather than rivals," the Xinhua news agency reported.

Japan and China are jockeying to upgrade India's dilapidated railway network. Japan is offering its bullet-train technology; China its own high-speed system.

It's true that Mr. Abe and Mr. Modi have a lot in common. They are strong nationalists, each with a vision of economic renewal for their countries that gave them landslide election victories. And they get along as well as any two statesmen in the world. Mr. Modi is one of only four people whom Mr. Abe follows on Twitter. But that won't necessarily result in an anti-Beijing axis on China's two flanks, even though Mr. Modi took a veiled swipe at China by criticizing countries that harbor an "18th-century expansionist mind-set."

In fact, Mr. Modi is more interested in copying China than trying to contain it. He came to power promising manufacturing jobs, high-speed trains and "smart" cities. It's a version of the Chinese economic model transported to the Indian subcontinent, one that prioritizes urban infrastructure to propel growth and generate employment.

Mr. Modi's management style is also familiar to anybody who follows China. In his home state of Gujarat, he gained a reputation as an economic reformer with an authoritarian streak who got things done. Chinese investors, put off by red tape elsewhere in India, flocked to Gujarat.

There's a problem, too, in the argument that India and Japan as large Asian democracies are natural allies against Communist-ruled China. It overlooks the equally striking similarities between India and China as the world's two largest developing nations. That pits them against industrialized countries on many issues from international trade to climate change.

Even on important political principles, India and China sometimes find themselves on the same side of the fence.

For domestic reasons (India's separatist insurgency in the disputed territory of Kashmir; China's long-standing fears of foreign meddling in Xinjiang and Tibet) both oppose any erosion of the principle of national sovereignty.

"Mr. Modi is a clever statesman," says Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University. He says Mr. Modi recognizes that China wants to build stronger economic ties with India as a way to neutralize a powerful neighbor that could stand in the way of its expanding sphere of influence in Asia. Japan, meanwhile, wishes for closer relations with India to contain China's growing clout.

Capitalizing on those competing desires, says Mr. Prasad, "will require some deft balancing but, barring the escalation of regional tensions that might force India to choose one side over the other, India has enough to offer both countries."

There's plenty of room, to be sure, for an all-round expansion of economic relations. Japan lags far behind China in trade with India. Meanwhile, China's investment in India is minuscule in comparison to Japan's. Japanese companies like Suzuki Motors, 7269.TO +0.73% Mitsubishi 8058.TO -0.13% Heavy Industries and Toshiba 6502.TO -0.16% have invested heavily in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.

How all this pans out will depend, in part, on the personal politics among the three. Despite the body language in Kyoto, Mr. Modi is in some ways the odd man out. Mr. Abe and Mr. Xi are both descended from political aristocracy: Mr. Abe's maternal grandfather was a postwar prime minister; Mr. Xi's father was a revolutionary-era hero. Mr. Modi, by contrast, is an outsider—the low-caste son of a tea merchant who took on the establishment and won. He'll need the skills that propelled his rise to navigate the treacherous politics of East Asia.

Write to Andrew Browne at [email protected]
 

shen

Senior Member
love this picture. let's get to work! Gung Ho as we say in Chinese.

U4jiDdQ.jpg
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
love this picture. let's get to work! Gung Ho as we say in Chinese.

China and India are long-term rivals in security, energy, resources, market shares, and great power geopolitics. Going forward, I see more competition than cooperation, so it's not clear what win-win scenario means in Sino-Indian affairs. Overland Silk Road? Yes, a definite possibility. Maritime Silk Road? India is suspicious of Chinese encirclement, so Xi Jinping has a tough sell. Mutual borders? That problem isn't going away anytime soon.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
China and India are long-term rivals in security, energy, resources, market shares, and great power geopolitics. Going forward, I see more competition than cooperation, so it's not clear what win-win scenario means in Sino-Indian affairs. Overland Silk Road? Yes, a definite possibility. Maritime Silk Road? India is suspicious of Chinese encirclement, so Xi Jinping has a tough sell. Mutual borders? That problem isn't going away anytime soon.

So is the US and China are rivals as well. That haven't stop them from cooperating economically in many ways that benefited them both. The same can be done with China and India.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
So is the US and China are rivals as well. That haven't stop them from cooperating economically in many ways that benefited them both. The same can be done with China and India.

And recent events have shown Sino-American political, economic, and security distrusts have increased and promises to get even worse. Win-win scenarios between them are narrowing and not widening.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
And recent events have shown Sino-American political, economic, and security distrusts have increased and promises to get even worse. Win-win scenarios between them are narrowing and not widening.

Has it stop them both from making money at all between each other? No it hasn't. You are overestimating the rhetoric of those recent events. The opening of Alibaba's IPO yesterday has already dis-proven your point.
 
Last edited:

Blackstone

Brigadier
Has it stop them both from making money at all between each other? No it hasn't. You are overestimating the rhetoric of those recent events. The opening of Alibaba's IPO yesterday has already dis-proven your point.

Alibaba IPO proves nothing. Germany and UK were largest trading partners and had closely integrated economies, but that didn't stop them from fighting each other in WWI. Escalating strategic rivalry between the US and China will get worse before it gets better, because the US is unwilling to share power with China, while China no longer accepts US primacy as basis of strategic order in Asia. Both sides expect the other to back down, and neither is willing to compromise.

In the end, the new Middle Kingdom, USA, has to admit there's no economic or security solution in Asia without China, and the original Middle Kingdom has to admit there's no economic or security solution in Asia without the United States. It means US must share power with China, no matter how difficult or painful that is. It also means China must accept strong American presence in Asia, because US is a Pacific nation and has vital economic and security interests in the region.

A good start is for US to invite China to the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and for China to reciprocate by inviting America to the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). Eventually (maybe 20-30 years), I'd like to see the US let go of her troublesome vassal state, Japan, and form closer partnerships with China instead.
 

delft

Brigadier
China and India are long-term rivals in security, energy, resources, market shares, and great power geopolitics. Going forward, I see more competition than cooperation, so it's not clear what win-win scenario means in Sino-Indian affairs. Overland Silk Road? Yes, a definite possibility. Maritime Silk Road? India is suspicious of Chinese encirclement, so Xi Jinping has a tough sell. Mutual borders? That problem isn't going away anytime soon.
India is joining SCO.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top