The UK's economy's becoming more and more desperate by the day.
...
So I imagine the UK is absolutely jumping at the opportunity to sell anything to anyone right now.
Yes, but not just the economy. "Brexit" has left the UK completely isolated. There was a huge amount of magical thinking in the UK around brexit, that somehow the UK could divorce mainland Europe and somehow still retain all the strategic partnerships that it bestowed. Increasingly hysterical propaganda and imperial adventurism in Northern Ireland piled on top of that left the UK with no one to turn too, so they had no choice but to "voluntarily" subjugate themselves to American interests.
There was a half-baked plan for "CANZUK" bloc between Canada, Australia, NZ and the UK that never got beyond the dementia addled dreams of some octogenerians who refer to places like "Ceylon" and "Malaya". It was primarily envisaged as a free trade and free movement zone with some strategic level elements but was completely stillborn for a whole variety of good reasons (no-one except NZ was interested in free movement with the UK, and the economic rationale was, to be charitable, less than sound.)
Since then, the economy has gone from bad to worse. The sub thing prob has some limited economic desperation to it, but I think relationship desperation is a bigger thing. The old English obsession with "global power" and delusions of grandeur combined with a system of political patronage that rewards "boys clubs" over experience or ability leaves British decision makers hopelessly outclassed by their American and European counterparts (as brexit showed only too clearly) and so Britain once again blindly and eagerly becomes America's pawn in controlling Australia, just as it did with Goth Whitlam. As for Australia, while not many, there are a few fantasists in Canberra as well with a hopelessly naïve view of the UK (Tony Abbott is the most obvious, but not only, example), that makes them an easy target for American puppetry. (It's precisely this weakness that means Australian intelligence has *always* leaked like a sieve)
You may have a point on the subs. AFAIK This is going to be the first time a non-nuclear power will have nuclear subs
Can any member confirm if that is true?
Not an expert, but I can't think of any of any other case where this has happened. During the Cold-War era it would have been unthinkable, and since then there hasn't been a lot of interest in them - most mid-range non-nuclears powers like Australia, Germany etc. have focused on small, agile, stealthy designs, which makes this whole sordid affair all the more tragic - it's not just reckless and dangerous, it's also completely "arse about face", as the Brits say.
weig2000 said:
In fact, I would go several steps further to suggest that China and Russia should probably strike a deal for China to purchase a dozen of Russia SSN Yassen-M to counter the AUKUS submarine deals. This will NOT involve technology transfer and it is large enough to incentivize Russia. This would send a strong signal of China-Russia de-facto alliance and deter the adversarial block. I'll probably post my thoughts to the AUKUS thread as it is off-topic here.
I doubt China would seriously go for that as a response, mainly due to running into the same problems Australia would if the AUKUS thing comes to fruition - dependency. Even though China has a full nuclear ability, it's foreign technology that's very different to their own. Given China has a perfectly capable design of her own, I expect domestic SSN production will get stepped up.
However, the most potent response here isn't military, but economic. Australia is going to the polls next year. Running down some investments and restricting some imports from Australia will give immediate consequences, without any security theatre that the US will use to justify AUKUS. It also gives a clear message that supporting parties that continue imperial adventurism means centrelink and negative equity for your family and community, and that this could either stop or be escalated to heavier economic measures.
Scomo can talk about "decoupling" the Australian and Chinese economies, but the reality is that Australia, like NZ, has a tiny and incredibly remote internal market, and the main resources are minerals. Minerals are only of us to big industrial producers and China takes 70% of the iron ore... you can decouple all you want but there's only one alternative to your overwhelmingly single biggest customer, and that's Centrelink.
Large scale mass-manufacturing just isn't going to work in Australia - the internal market is far, far too small, and cost of production is crippling due to the "tyranny of distance" in the supply chain and limited local workforce. Services are plagued by time difference between Australia and other anglo countries and again, the limited local workforce.
Australia must make peace with her place in the world. She's not in Europe, nor the Atlantic. She's a vast island in maritime south-east Asia with a small population and an abundance of natural and agricultural riches. Rather than bemoaning her lot and washing she could swap places with the Isle of Wight, she should embrace and celebrate the reality. She is located very close to one of the fastest developing, most technologically advanced and industrialised regions of the world, and has all the materials the region needs to drive that industry. That's a pretty damn good position to be in.
