AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.


Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I'm glad you mentioned Bohai. In your article about BHSIC's first expansion (your best work) you estimated the shipyard's launch cadence at 2 SSNs and 1 SSBN per annum. Since I doubt the yard will schedule an SSBN every year - and assuming (perhaps inaccurately) that 2 SSNs could be launched in an SSBN "slot" - I guess that the schedule would be periodic, something like
SSNs launchedSSBNs launched
Year 121
Year 240
Year 340
Year 421
...
More importantly, your 2019 analysis doesn't take into account the second expansion at Bohai. How much do you think that expansion adds to the launch rate?

Moreover, those Yasens are already spoken for. I'm pretty sure the Russian navy will have booked all of Sevmash's capacity for the foreseeable future; I don't see any export potential there. In any event, in Russian hands the Yasens will be doing good work tying up American capacity away from the western Pacific.

My prediction for annual launch rate was very, very tentative.

As for the new southern assembly hall, the way its rails are arranged strongly suggests to me that assembly hall is intended exclusively for SSN sized submarines. Whatever the case, when the second assembly hall starts running, whatever the annual production capacity of the existing eastern assembly hall is, they can add to that basically the annual production capacity of the new southern hall which will likely produce SSNs exclusively.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Colonel
Registered Member
SCO was already in the cards before this new "alliance". I see that as a win for China in Eurasia.

CPTPP is a reaction to AUKUS. I am still a but confused though what is China's true objective with that one though. Is it joining or is it getting denied and then being able to criticize Aus + Japan for prioritizing conflict?

I think that China is happy with both outcomes. A cant-lose move
SCO is dead. Admission of India and Pakistan simultaneously, with all their drama, guarantees it. Either admission of Pakistan or admitting neither would have been OK, but admitting India was the fatal mistake.
 

siegecrossbow

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
It’s still missing Canada and New Zealand.

Interestingly there is another Anglo grouping apart from the 5-eyes called CANZUK.

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I wonder if theses 2 groupings are related? Maybe the UK is behind this, not the USA or AUS?

New Zealand is not interested in this arrangement since they don’t have anything militarily significant to bring to the table.
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
New Zealand is not interested in this arrangement since they don’t have anything militarily significant to bring to the table.
I agree, I think Japan is more likely to join than NZ. The UK has been trying to get Japan to join the Tempest program and potentially buy a QE carrier.
 

sndef888

Senior Member
Registered Member
The anglos are getting desperate. They are giving up all pretense of being independent countries in favour of volunteered vassalisation

Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. This will be the final challenge to China's rise as a superpower
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
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This has literally become a pissing match inside Australia. Originally, this was supposed to be a unite against China, now coverage is almost exclusively on french anger as well as opposition inside australia to this deal. You would have thought that the countries would have tested this with the public before announcing something so dramatic.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
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This has literally become a pissing match inside Australia. Originally, this was supposed to be a unite against China, now coverage is almost exclusively on french anger as well as opposition inside australia to this deal. You would have thought that the countries would have tested this with the public before announcing something so dramatic.
Well,the opposition isnt wrong. They have essentially traded for military tech, which would take 20 years to come, and economic trade deal with EU.

France will now delay and delay the FTA with Australia
 

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