unfortunately many Southeast Asian countries are filled with racist cowards who are very scared of west but look down on Chinese and other Southeast Asians even with 1/4 - 1/5 of Chinese GDP per capita. I am serious, you would not believe how many Filipinos or Vietnamese with $2k-3k GDP/capita are very worried about 'illegal Chinese immigrants' with $12k GDP/capita. @ansy1968 can tell you about this ridiculous situation.
Indonesia is unlikely to take any substantial action... they couldn't even stop East Timor from being torn away and that's on land, what hope do they have of standing against Australia?
One possibility is that China could purchase the existing Yasen-Ms (either the existing pair or the ones soon to roll off the assembly line) as a stop-gap measure until Bohai is up and running, in much the same way with the Sovs back then.
This is of course assuming the Russians can spare the subs in the first place, but it isn't like they don't already have their hands full with the huge backlog of the various classes in various stages of construction/fitting out/trials; not to mention the bunch of Akulas currently undergoing modernisation that will soon re-enter service. So one could argue Russia wouldn't exactly be devoid of SSNs by handing over a couple of Yasen-Ms to the PLAN, or even lease them to China like they did with India.
Southeast Asian Gov have a well-known reason why they hype up anti-China sentiments. The world knows it, the Govs know it, the Elites know it, and China itself knows why.
However even with the artificial created anti-China sentiment, the Govs still deal rationally with China.
As for Indonesia, this is a big deal for them. Far more threatening to them than China seeing a bunch of subs in 2040.
We should all closely watch Indonesia's moves on this issue
Indonesia should be scared of this development, but what are they gonna really do about it? I don't think they have the capability to stand up to Australia.
The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region.
As for the Filipinos, ask them why they feel the way they do about the Chinese, geopolitics notwithstanding. The Chinese coming to the Phillipines behaving like they own the place have gone a long way in tarnishing their country’s image.
Add to that, that historicaly, Chinese were never that liked to begin with, as they held a grossly disproportionate amount of wealth in the South East Asian countries they lived in.
@FairAndUnbiased so true bro so true, but it is changing fast here in the Philippine but you need to ask @bajingan and @antonius123 about Indonesia, Here because of Duterte the oligarchy elites (most of them are Hua Qiao/ or Mestizo mixed race) are being crippled and exposed, their loyalty is being question caused #1 they hold dual passport. #2 They mostly benefited on the current economic structure especially after the 1997 financial crisis where most of the state assets were auction off under the term formulated by the IMF and WB. As the power shift now taking place in this region so is the attitude, remember our number one export are laborers the OFW (Overseas Filipino Workers) and they suffer abuses and violence working abroad. As they returned home their disposition changes regarding the Chinese cause now they can relate and understand us more from their experiences. That is happening in the local level what is more internationally as the Chinese accumulate more power and prestige. I think we are on the final stage of fear mongering and demonization as the West propaganda dissipate, the next stage is ACCEPTANCE. The West should understand that we may loath and hate the Chinese due to petty grievances, deep inside the SCAR OF COLONIZATION AND HUMILIATION we hate and loath them even more and the American knows it and try to deflect that anger by having a common enemy.
Unless they purchase directly from the US, Australia is unlikely to field nuclear submarines in 3 to 5 years. Current estimate is that they will be able to manufacture them by 2040! That’s four successive change of governments. Who knows if they deal will survive even the budget talks.
Makes sense. They have no capability to build nuke subs yet. They will have to start it from scratch and go through all the pains which will cost time and $$$$$.
As I wrote in that post, the time by which such a purchase would allow for deliveries when factoring in Russian demand, the pace of production from Sevmash, and not to mention the time for negotiations to take place -- the Bohai facility would likely have been up and running for years producing new submarine classes.
I entertained the idea before just to address it once, but frankly I think this entire idea is better just not even spoken of anymore, because so much of it just doesn't even work.
Talking about it gives off the impression it is more plausible than it really is, and it's probably beneficial to everyone to not talk about it.