Mexico tells Trump to hurry up on that wall.
American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
Mexico tells Trump to hurry up on that wall.
Not sure if it really matters, since Iran is closed off due to the coronavirus anyway.
Jura The idiot
General
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That's surprising to me. I thought the US contraction would only be reflected in Q2 while most of the damage to China is reflected in Q1 because Q1 is beginning of January to end of March. China started having COVID-19 problems mid-late January with Wuhan being locked down on Jan. 23rd but the US economy wasn't really hit by COVID-19 until mid-March, (with national state of emergency only declared March 25th) leaving only 2/13 weeks left of Q1 inflicted for the US against 10-11/13 weeks of Q1 inflicted for China so I didn't expect much damage to US Q1. I guess it could be that some of their supply chains from China were disrupted with the -4.8% reflecting mostly that? Not sure.
Last edited:
Jura The idiot
General
after I'd seen your post, recalled Apr 10, 2020
(the point being the US GDP dip is pretty big even before Q2)
Jura The idiot
General
before I go to bed, I quote Mr. Kudlow inside
Published 3 hours ago
:
"So I think the economy is going to suffer through very bad numbers, you saw some of it today. It's going to be worse in the second quarter, the unemployment rate is going to go up, it's a very serious matter. There's a lot of hardship there."
Published 3 hours ago
:
"So I think the economy is going to suffer through very bad numbers, you saw some of it today. It's going to be worse in the second quarter, the unemployment rate is going to go up, it's a very serious matter. There's a lot of hardship there."
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The lynchpin of US innovation is the ample supply of bright and young immigrant If this flow stop that will be the beginning of end for US technology domination. If ain't broke don't replace it Seem somebody forgot this wise adage. Beijing couldn't ask for better gift than halt of Chinese student
Trump’s Immigration Lockdown Will Weaken America
Noah Smith
April 29, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT
Trump’s Immigration Lockdown Will Weaken America
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- These are hard times for pro-immigration forces in the U.S. President Donald Trump has seized upon this moment of confusion and distraction to issue a 60-day ban on most green-card applications -- suggesting that the administration has been just as intent from the start on targeting legal immigration as well as the illegal variety. Trump’s leading anti-immigration adviser, Stephen Miller, has said that Trump will try to extend this ban indefinitely, shutting down most immigration by administrative fiat. And with tensions with China ratcheting up over coronavirus and other issues, immigration opponents such as Republican Senator Tom Cotton are proposing a ban on Chinese students studying science and technology at U.S. universities.
Even if Trump’s new ban is struck down by the courts and former Vice President Joe Biden beats him in the fall election, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic probably will depress migration for years. The U.S. has been especially hard-hit by coronavirus, and will almost certainly suffer a painful and lasting depression. That will make it a less appealing destination for international talent, which could flow to less-hard-hit places such as Canada and Australia.
But coronavirus is only putting the finishing touches on what was already a highly successful campaign of immigration restriction by the Trump administration. Years of nativist rhetoric and administrative harassment had already led to a sharp reduction in the net number of foreigners moving to the U.S., from more than 800,000 in 2017 to only about 200,000 in 2018. A series of Trump administration policy changes had already stanched the flow of Central American refugees to the U.S.
Trump isn't the only reason immigration to the U.S. has fallen. The big wave of Mexican immigration that began in the 1980s ended a decade before he took office. The Secure Fence Act of 2006 effectively built a border wall, while the Secure Communities program beefed up internal security and deportations during the Barack Obama administration.
Meanwhile, Mexican fertility rates dropped sharply, and the Mexican economy improved modestly, reducing the pressures on Mexicans to migrate north for work. This combination of push and pull factors caused the Mexican-born population in the U.S. to fall by hundreds of thousands in the mid-2000s and early 2010s:
Because of the end of the Mexican wave, overall low-skilled immigration to the U.S. plummeted. High-skilled immigration, however, remained robust:
Most of these educated immigrants came from Asia. Asian immigration surpassed Latin American immigration in the mid-2000s, and Asian-Americans were on course to become the country’s largest foreign-born ethnic group. That wave may also have waned in time, as better economic opportunities in China and India created alternatives to the American Dream. But Trump’s restrictionist policies have choked it off prematurely.
So U.S. immigration is being curtailed by a remarkable confluence of events -- economic growth and fertility decline in other countries, the political success of American nativists and the coronavirus pandemic. These will combine to produce a long-lasting immigration pause similar to the one that started in the 1920s, when nativist laws -- and later the Great Depression and World War II -- choked off immigration for a generation.
Trump’s Immigration Lockdown Will Weaken America
Noah Smith
April 29, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT
Trump’s Immigration Lockdown Will Weaken America
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- These are hard times for pro-immigration forces in the U.S. President Donald Trump has seized upon this moment of confusion and distraction to issue a 60-day ban on most green-card applications -- suggesting that the administration has been just as intent from the start on targeting legal immigration as well as the illegal variety. Trump’s leading anti-immigration adviser, Stephen Miller, has said that Trump will try to extend this ban indefinitely, shutting down most immigration by administrative fiat. And with tensions with China ratcheting up over coronavirus and other issues, immigration opponents such as Republican Senator Tom Cotton are proposing a ban on Chinese students studying science and technology at U.S. universities.
Even if Trump’s new ban is struck down by the courts and former Vice President Joe Biden beats him in the fall election, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic probably will depress migration for years. The U.S. has been especially hard-hit by coronavirus, and will almost certainly suffer a painful and lasting depression. That will make it a less appealing destination for international talent, which could flow to less-hard-hit places such as Canada and Australia.
But coronavirus is only putting the finishing touches on what was already a highly successful campaign of immigration restriction by the Trump administration. Years of nativist rhetoric and administrative harassment had already led to a sharp reduction in the net number of foreigners moving to the U.S., from more than 800,000 in 2017 to only about 200,000 in 2018. A series of Trump administration policy changes had already stanched the flow of Central American refugees to the U.S.
Trump isn't the only reason immigration to the U.S. has fallen. The big wave of Mexican immigration that began in the 1980s ended a decade before he took office. The Secure Fence Act of 2006 effectively built a border wall, while the Secure Communities program beefed up internal security and deportations during the Barack Obama administration.
Meanwhile, Mexican fertility rates dropped sharply, and the Mexican economy improved modestly, reducing the pressures on Mexicans to migrate north for work. This combination of push and pull factors caused the Mexican-born population in the U.S. to fall by hundreds of thousands in the mid-2000s and early 2010s:
Because of the end of the Mexican wave, overall low-skilled immigration to the U.S. plummeted. High-skilled immigration, however, remained robust:
Most of these educated immigrants came from Asia. Asian immigration surpassed Latin American immigration in the mid-2000s, and Asian-Americans were on course to become the country’s largest foreign-born ethnic group. That wave may also have waned in time, as better economic opportunities in China and India created alternatives to the American Dream. But Trump’s restrictionist policies have choked it off prematurely.
So U.S. immigration is being curtailed by a remarkable confluence of events -- economic growth and fertility decline in other countries, the political success of American nativists and the coronavirus pandemic. These will combine to produce a long-lasting immigration pause similar to the one that started in the 1920s, when nativist laws -- and later the Great Depression and World War II -- choked off immigration for a generation.
Jura The idiot
General
an interesting tidbit from inside of
Updated 12:08 AM ET, Thu April 30, 2020
:
Health care hurt the economy. But not for the reason you think. Incredibly, one of the biggest drivers of decline was As hundreds of thousands of Americans contracted a deadly virus, overwhelming hospitals in New York especially, it was the suspension of money-making elective procedures that created one of the biggest hits to the economy.
Updated 12:08 AM ET, Thu April 30, 2020
:
Health care hurt the economy. But not for the reason you think. Incredibly, one of the biggest drivers of decline was As hundreds of thousands of Americans contracted a deadly virus, overwhelming hospitals in New York especially, it was the suspension of money-making elective procedures that created one of the biggest hits to the economy.