Air and Strike Campaigns for PLA relevance

AndrewS said:

But China has an even greater determination to subdue Taiwan.

1. It's an unresolved civil war, and the existence of Taiwan threatens the legitimacy of the Communist Party and the ruling Politburo.
2. The Taiwan issue has been drummed into the population for decades now.
3. If a conflict begins, Taiwan must be subdued. Otherwise Taiwanese independence means US military forces will be stationed in Taiwan, posing a offensive threat to mainland China, and which will also ensure the 1st Island Chain can contain China militarily.

High casualties will not deter the Chinese leadership or the Chinese military, if they know that an invasion will eventually be successful.

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if it's true what you've just described, I can only repeat Monday at 12:22 PM

Jura said:

I'll borrow from Oct 9, 2019
and my point is before they're serious about an invasion, they should do some actual combat (in places like South Sudan for instance)

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in other words, it'd be a good idea for the military of continental China to get involved in some real world operations first, to see not just a neat stuff like hits and coordinates, but also collateral damage, POWs, caskets flying home, ...

thanks to tough posts by Andy in the previous page, I realized an interesting point, actually a question which I think is suitable for
Air and Strike Campaigns for PLA relevance
:
would the strategic air power of continental China (= bombing of Taiwan, after winning air dominance over it) be able to make Taiwan surrender without landing troops
?

(assumed is a naval blockade, plus no foreign military involvement)

Jura said:

thanks to tough posts by Andy in the previous page, I realized an interesting point, actually a question which I think is suitable for
Air and Strike Campaigns for PLA relevance
:
would the strategic air power of continental China (= bombing of Taiwan, after winning air dominance over it) be able to make Taiwan surrender without landing troops
?

(assumed is a naval blockade, plus no foreign military involvement)

Click to expand...

Assuming no foreign intervention, a naval blockade would be enough to make a Taiwan surrender. As you know, the island of Taiwan has no natural resources of its own. Taiwan's energy needs rely heavily on natural gas. They have only one week worth of natural gas in reserve because they have no place to store large quantities of natural gas. So they rely on weekly shipments of natural gas from southeast Asian countries. A Chinese naval blockade that lasts more than a week will be enough to render a major energy crisis on the island. I'm not sure how long a modern society addicted to energy can last with a major energy shortage...

This potentially serious issue has indeed been used by the proponents of nuclear plants. Having nuclear energy as their main energy source will eliminate their heavy dependence on foreign natural gas...

vesicles said:

Assuming no foreign intervention, a naval blockade would be enough to make a Taiwan surrender. As you know, the island of Taiwan has no natural resources of its own. Taiwan's energy needs rely heavily on natural gas. They have only one week worth of natural gas in reserve because they have no place to store large quantities of natural gas. So they rely on weekly shipments of natural gas from southeast Asian countries. A Chinese naval blockade that lasts more than a week will be enough to render a major energy crisis on the island. I'm not sure how long a modern society addicted to energy can last with a major energy shortage...

This potentially serious issue has indeed been used by the proponents of nuclear plants. Having nuclear energy as their main energy source will eliminate their heavy dependence on foreign natural gas...

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oh in any full-scale scenario (*) a naval blockade would be imposed on the island, whose electric-power grid would be off within minutest since hostilities began;

but it's
Air and Strike Campaigns for PLA relevance
thread so what I meant Yesterday at 8:59 AM was if bombing itself, no boots on the ground (except of course SF going after command posts etc.), would make Taiwan give up

(*) in case you asked what would NOT be "full-scale scenario", you might want to check "Taking Taiwan in less than three days"

vesicles said:

Assuming no foreign intervention, a naval blockade would be enough to make a Taiwan surrender. As you know, the island of Taiwan has no natural resources of its own. Taiwan's energy needs rely heavily on natural gas. They have only one week worth of natural gas in reserve because they have no place to store large quantities of natural gas. So they rely on weekly shipments of natural gas from southeast Asian countries. A Chinese naval blockade that lasts more than a week will be enough to render a major energy crisis on the island. I'm not sure how long a modern society addicted to energy can last with a major energy shortage...

This potentially serious issue has indeed been used by the proponents of nuclear plants. Having nuclear energy as their main energy source will eliminate their heavy dependence on foreign natural gas...

Click to expand...

I believe a PLA strategy against Taiwan will seek to be as fast and decisive as possible so as to minimize the time for outside third parties to decide on involving themselves.

While in theory an air campaign alone or a naval blockade alone may be able to eventually over a long duration, cause a surrender, if third party involvement is guaranteed to not occur, in reality the PLA will not likely rely on such an assumption.

Jura said:

thanks to tough posts by Andy in the previous page, I realized an interesting point, actually a question which I think is suitable for
Air and Strike Campaigns for PLA relevance
:
would the strategic air power of continental China (= bombing of Taiwan, after winning air dominance over it) be able to make Taiwan surrender without landing troops
?

(assumed is a naval blockade, plus no foreign military involvement)

Click to expand...

Given indefinite time, if foreign intervention is guaranteed to not occur, and depending on the scale of destruction the PLA are willing to inflict to both military and civilian targets, then sure in theory it can be enough to cause anyone to surrender given enough time and destruction.

But considering none of those are prospects that the PLA can rely on, I think the question is moot.
I don't think anyone considers those to be parameters that the PLA will experience in a real Taiwan contingency.

What you are asking is more if a general question about whether strategic air power can cause an adversary to surrender -- which is a conditional yes.



Also, while I appreciate your effort to create productive questions relevant to the thread, can you format your posts a little less jarringly?

Randomly bolding the title of the thread with such a large font size, and having the colon and the question mark on directly different lines makes your entire post difficult to read.

Bltizo said:

I believe a PLA strategy against Taiwan will seek to be as fast and decisive as possible so as to minimize the time for outside third parties to decide on involving themselves.

While in theory an air campaign alone or a naval blockade alone may be able to eventually over a long duration, cause a surrender, if third party involvement is guaranteed to not occur, in reality the PLA will not likely rely on such an assumption.

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I agree, but the whole premise of my argument has been under Jura's original assumption of no foreign intervention.