2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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Fully Compliant

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tamsen_ikard said:
Iran has shown competency by devestating Israel, a country 1500 KM away from them. It shows they are the top country in the middle-east. No one can challenge Iran in the middle-east at the moment. Gulf Arabs, Turkey, pretty much everyone will be pulverized by Iranian missiles.

Iran also didn't show their full strength cause it was not existential for them. Their full strength is the devestation of all oil facilities in the middle-east, Hormuz mined, US bases destroyed.

You should pay attention to what happened in the war. It was a loss for US and Israel.
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your relentless fantasy cope is giving me some extreme second hand embarrassment

There is no evidence that Israel suffered any significant damage from this conflict (Israel censors are not all powerful). It remains to be seen whether Israel achieved their goals, but they're clearly capable of doing it again and have a population willing to take the psychological hit of a few apartment buildings being hit. Living in reality is not the same as defending Israel.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

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tamsen_ikard said:
Iran has shown competency by devestating Israel, a country 1500 KM away from them. It shows they are the top country in the middle-east. No one can challenge Iran in the middle-east at the moment. Gulf Arabs, Turkey, pretty much everyone will be pulverized by Iranian missiles.

Iran also didn't show their full strength cause it was not existential for them. Their full strength is the devestation of all oil facilities in the middle-east, Hormuz mined, US bases destroyed.

You should pay attention to what happened in the war. It was a loss for US and Israel.
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Right so they are some superpowah that is the big boss of the middle east with no rival.

Yet in your previous post you are saying how Iran must fight on otherwise it will be humiliated since it got bombed and got its top leaders killed.

Sounds contradictory.
 
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tamsen_ikard

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Fully Compliant said:
your relentless fantasy cope is giving me some extreme second hand embarrassment

There is no evidence that Israel suffered any significant damage from this conflict (Israel censors are not all powerful). It remains to be seen whether Israel achieved their goals, but they're clearly capable of doing it again and have a population willing to take the psychological hit of a few apartment buildings being hit. Living in reality is not the same as defending Israel.
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There is no evidence that Iran suffered any great damage other than statements of Israel. We see several generals popping out who were supposed to be dead. We see footage of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel, destroying Air defense, destroying oil and port facilities.

Where is corresponding video of Iranian cities getting destroyed? Where is the video of Multiple Iranian neighbourhoods looking like Gaza?

All we see are Mossad agents lobbing small drone based bombs destroying a few apartments.

Israel has made boasting statements about bombing Iran but the actual on the ground footage is not there. Where is the footage of Israeli Jets flying over Tehran? In this day and age of smartphones, if Israeli Jets were bombing with Impunity, there will be footage of jets flying around.
 
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enroger

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tamsen_ikard said:
I think China should still sell to Iran, atleast Pakistan level tech like J-10c, if Iran makes major strategic concessions to China like CPEC. Giving major oil/gas fields to China, giving military bases to China that kind of thing.

Pakistan is also a heavy US ally. I think China knows full well that Chinese tech will leak to US from Pakistan. But China still sells to Pakistan because of its own strategic advantage which is to counter India.

China doesn't have such a strategic benefit with Iran at the moment. But that kind of benefit can be gained if China makes Iran its main hub of operations. If they can have bases and mining rights inside Iran, then it makes sense to prop it up.
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Put aside Pakistan for a second, your reply is telling that even you don't have confidence in Iran achieving the two things I mentioned.

Do reflect on one fact, the things I said is not just for China's willingness to share technology, the things I said is crucial for Iran's own survival. In today's world, can Iran really survive by being strategically indecisive? With internal political divide that hamper every single foreign policy they make? With foreign infiltration so deep that easily wipe their entire high command seemingly at will?

If Iran has no confidence in it's own survival then why would China invest in it? All that strategic alignments you speak of would be for naught if the regime kick the bucket.

Now talk about Pakistan. The current Pakistani government is US installed stooges I've said so in the past, the thing about Pakistan is that no matter their relation with the US is, They will always be anti-India and somewhat pro-China. This is the kind of stability China can count on.

Secondly, at least Pakistan is somewhat competent in their military intelligence that they're not infiltrated to the extend Iran is. The level of infiltration in Iran is frankly UNBELIEVABLE, if anyone told me Iran is this infiltrated two years ago I'd laugh at them.... yet here we are
 
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tamsen_ikard

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enroger said:
Put aside Pakistan for a second, your reply is telling that even you don't have confidence in Iran achieving the two things I mentioned.

Do reflect on one fact, the things I said is not just for China's willingness to share technology, the things I said is crucial for Iran's own survival. In today's world, can Iran really survive by being strategically indecisive? With internal political divide that hamper every single foreign policy they make? With foreign infiltration so deep that easily wipe their entire high command seemingly at will?

If Iran has no confidence in it's own survival then why would China invest in it? All that strategic alignments you speak of would be for naught if the regime kick the bucket.

Now talk about Pakistan. The current Pakistani government is US installed stooges I've said so in the past, the thing about Pakistan is that no matter their relation with the US is, They will always be anti-India and somewhat pro-China. This is the kind of stability China can count on.

Secondly, at least Pakistan is somewhat competent in their military intelligence that they're not infiltrated to the extend Iran is. The level of infiltration in Iran is frankly UNBELIEVABLE, if anyone told me Iran is this infiltrated two years ago I'd laugh at them.... yet here we are
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If Iran was on the verge kicking the bucket, Israel and US wouldn't need to Bomb it now, would they?

Israel and US felt the need to do it cause they have no leverage left against Iran. They tried sanctions for decades and that didn't work. They tried heavily during the Mahsa Amini protests to topple the Regime, but that didn't happen.

So, they ended up trying to decapitate the leadership and hope if that works. But guess what that didn't work either.


Iran is a regime that came from a revolution. A revolution that kicked out an old regime of pro-western elites and replaced by a more egalitarian populist govt. Kinda similar I would say to communist revolutions. Yes, their ideology is religion instead of Equality for All, but the actual outcome is kinda similar.

You have an org like the IRGC that is similar to something like the PLA, a party army.

So, I think Iranian Regime is very resilient. Yes, its unpopular to the elites, that's why you have all these spies. But I don't think the common mass is okay with a pro-western, pro-elite govt similar to what Gulf Arabs have. Those gulf arab govts are also extremely unpopular by the way.

The kind of Ideology that Iran espouses, about revolution and islam, makes it very hard for them to openly justify too much dependence on a foreign country like China or Russia. So, that's why you see Juche like self-reliance policies. I think that is bigger impediment to China/Iran relationship rather than regime stability. There is also another factor which is China not wanting to make enemies out of Gulf Arabs and the west. China chose to stay out of Iran because of these other countries.
 
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enroger

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tamsen_ikard said:
If Iran was on the verge kicking the bucket, Israel and US wouldn't need to Bomb it now, would they?

Israel and US felt the need to do it cause they have no leverage left against Iran. They tried sanctions for decades and that didn't work. They tried heavily during the Mahsa Amini protests to topple the Regime, but that didn't happen.

So, they ended up trying to decapitate the leadership and hope if that works. But guess what that didn't work either.


Iran is a regime that came from a revolution. A revolution that kicked out an old regime of pro-western elites and replaced by a more egalitarian populist govt. Kinda similar I would say to communist revolutions. Yes, their ideology is religion instead of Equality for All, but the actual outcome is kinda similar.

You have an org like the IRGC that is similar to something like the PLA, a party army.

So, I think Iranian Regime is very resilient. Yes, its unpopular to the elites, that's why you have all these spies. But I don't think the common mass is okay with a pro-western, pro-elite govt similar to what Gulf Arabs have. Those gulf arab govts are also extremely unpopular by the way.

The kind of Ideology that Iran espouses, about revolution and islam, makes it very hard for them to openly justify too much dependence on a foreign country like China or Russia. So, that's why you see Juche like self-reliance policies. I think that is bigger impediment to China/Iran relationship rather than regime stability. There is also another factor which is China not wanting to make enemies out of Gulf Arabs and the west. China chose to stay out of Iran because of these other countries.
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You explained the ideological situation clearly. The elites long for the west and the mass opposes it. The facts remains, the elites hold considerable influence in the policy making and contribute to Iran's spy problem. If the situation remains unchanged then all the problems persists, Iran will continue to be strategically indecisive and continue to be riddled with spies.

Iran will continue to approach China for a moment then swing back to groveling to the west in the next moment. And if Chinese weaponry does arrive in Iran, the west will gain much more comprehensive intelligence of it then they will ever get out of countries like Pakistan.

You understand this is not a confidence inspiring picture?
 
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pokepara

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It wouldn't matter if China gave the blueprints for all their tech to the West. Their industrial capacity and procurement processes are not fit to take advantage of it (like with hilarious disasters of the Northvolt battery production in the EU).

Iran's domestic support for its ideology is stronger than ever (even among their elites) after these blatant attacks. The pro-Western factions look like idiots, and the anti-West faction is empowered. This means they can actually develop better ties with China/Russa.

This is how it works with every country that can be flipped from the West. The West demonstrates it can't be trusted so blatantly that even idiotic Liberals have to accept it. China's role is to help them where they can. Iran is one of the most important potential allies (I'd say 2nd most important, only to Russia).

The initial sabotage and resulting assassination attacks in Iran were devastating. But these aren't easily repeatable. You typically use up intelligence assets for tangible, solid results. What was achieved? IMO, not enough to justify the cost because Iran's industrial capacity and political/military leadership proved it was robust enough to withstand the assault.

Meanwhile, Israel is bleeding materiel, money, morale and people as dual passport holders attempt to flee.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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FriedRiceNSpice said:
Why IDF choose NOT to intercept missiles targetted at airbases?
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Because the airbase is very difficult to destroy, in addition to rendering it completely inoperable, in a matter of a few hours they can repair the runways for the fighters to operate, in addition, considering the accuracy of the old Iranian missiles (low accuracy) and the lack of use of submunitions to attack the fighters on the runways - considering that the fighters were not activated as soon as the sirens sounded - there is no reason to employ air defense at the airbases.
 
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