Iran is launching fewer missiles per wave so it is possible
2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
Maybe they have the cold feet to get out and in of their tunnels for reloading/ launch. They are probably watched 24/24, Israel just waiting for the doors to open. Or indeed some stockpiles got busted.
If Israelis interceptors are being depleted at a faster rate than Iranian ballistic missiles from the combination of operational launches and hostile fire, then there's significant value for Trump to delay US intervention in favor of Israel against Iran.
The more dire things get for Israel, the more incentives the Israel Lobby will throw at Trump, and Trump isn't stupid or naive about such things. So waiting until the "last minute" to intervene could in fact maximize returns for Trump!
Maybe he can even ask them to facilitate a third term?!
Drones are by definition expendable or at least in general relatively more expendable than their crewed counterparts.
Downing IAF drones at scale will reduce sortie rates, perhaps even in visible ways, but it is at the end of the day a half measure, especially with US intervention looking imminent.
That's actually not an unreasonable consideration in view of what the Houthis reportedly achieved in the Red Sea.
According to , Houthi ASBMs came closer than generally reported and expected to striking a number of vessels in the Red Sea:
This is on top of an amended admission that a Houthi ASBM landed within 200m of an USN CVN:
Yes, in case you were wondering, this paper was indeed amended to reject supposed efforts to "propagandize" what was written. Obviously someone was unhappy that such an admission impeached the USN's assumed infallibility (against just about everyone except the PLAN, and maybe the Russian submarine force), which is in itself an endorsement of the Houthi's Iran derived ASBM capability.
Not a physicist or computer scientist, but isn't kinematic limitations more probable here than software failures or sensor shortcomings, especially at the terminal stage where there's less time to adjust course in response to a target's evasive maneuvers?
Thank you India. A true defender of freedom of speech and largest democracy in the world.
Netanyahu can't possibly be stupid enough to think Trump will give "two fucks" about Israeli military casualties.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
The incoming missile likely maneuvered into a trajectory for which it would be impossible for the defending air defense missiles to intercept. When the guidance computers on the air defense missile cannot find a possible course to intercept after some time, they self-destructed.
At least $20-30M of SAMs spent failing to intercept a BM likely costing at most $1M.
Attacks are primary conducted by drones and ground attacks. Do we have credible evidence for planes attacking? And given the claim of large scale IAF attack, the evidence is too thin.
And if IAF is not conducting massive raids, there is no evidence Iranian AD is severely degraded. Drones may still slip though, but there is no good AD solution for those drones yet.
And if IAF is not conducting massive raids, there is no evidence Iranian AD is severely degraded. Drones may still slip though, but there is no good AD solution for those drones yet.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Even if Iranian AD is intact, I don't think they actually have much of anything that would possess a threat to IDF fighters. Most of their air defense is S-200. Wouldn't have much faith in any of their domestic systems either.
Could have been from the initial pre-emptive Israeli air strikes on day 1. Just not found and disclosed/published until days later. Intentionally or otherwise.