2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

tokenanalyst said:

I think F-35 would be difficult to defeat for any 4th gen jet without good AWACS and ground radar. But having the ability to shoot down UK and US refueling tankers would have diminished Israeli attack capabilities significantly. I'm more surprised about the lack of MANPADS to take down Israeli drones and other slow moving air assets.

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My mistake again.

I edited that comment out because it came out with more emotion than logic.

A few dozen jets (Egyptian Su-35s that never got delivered) wouldn't uttered the battlefield. Iran airspace will still be in Israel's control.

Logic dictates that Iran should give up their nuclear program to save their people and regime, and then modernize themselves conventionally first before attempting a nuclear program. I am a logic person and I think this is right course they should take.

Kich said:

My mistake again.

I edited that comment out because it came out with more emotion than logic.

A few dozen jets (Egyptian Su-35s that never got delivered) wouldn't uttered the battlefield. Iran airspace will still be in Israel's control.

Logic dictates that Iran should give up their nuclear program to save their people and regime, and then modernize themselves conventionally first before attempting a nuclear program. I am a logic person and I think this is right course they should take.

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They're never going to be given an opportunity to develop their economy again. Let alone their military. By giving up their nuclear program, they are guaranteeing an outcome like Libya (open slave markets and abject poverty), Afghanistan, Syria, or Iraq. The first thing the US and NATO members will do is seize the rights to all the oil/gas under the ground. They will own all of Iran's oil and gas for pennies on the dollar, and Iran will get the pennies. Just look at who exactly is profiting from Syrian oil. Certainly not the Syrians.

Kich said:

My mistake again.

I edited that comment out because it came out with more emotion than logic.

A few dozen jets (Egyptian Su-35s that never got delivered) wouldn't uttered the battlefield. Iran airspace will still be in Israel's control.

Logic dictates that Iran should give up their nuclear program to save their people and regime, and then modernize themselves conventionally first before attempting a nuclear program. I am a logic person and I think this is right course they should take.

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100%. I think Iran should drop its nuclear program and take a step back right now. Live to fight another day...They can always regroup later. If Israel or the U.S. decides to wipe out their infrastructure, they’ll be set back decades, 30 or 40 years, easy BUT that is assuming US/Israel are good faith actors and they will actually stick to their promises. Who knows, they might STILL bomb critical infrastructure before stepping back. Iran just made terrible mistake. They should have started preparing for it during Biden's presidency because it's clear from Trump's 1st term that he wanted a war with Iran. This fight with Israel isn’t even really Iran’s war. Their leaders should be focused on fixing their own country instead of picking fights with Israel. But I think its more then just nukes at this point for Netanyahu.He wants to utterly devastate Iran's infrastructure and institutions so that they are no longer a threat for at least 20 to 30 years as it will take Iran decades to recover from all the devastation.

CMP said:

They're never going to be given an opportunity to develop their economy again. Let alone their military. By giving up their nuclear program, they are guaranteeing an outcome like Libya (open slave markets and abject poverty), Afghanistan, or Iraq.

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US won't repeat Iraq and Afghan 20 year campaign again.

They will break Iran like Libya and then leave. The mess from it is what I'm struggling to predict. I can't predict it.

The small chance for major involvement/slash regime change will come due to casualties caused by Iran which is very unlikely.

This will be 1991 Gulf-war or Libya 2.0.

I see there's no point discussing this with those of you that think Iran will escape this with only a slap on the wrist. That level of thinking is not much different than those Iranians who think they can join the West by means of a deal. They will pay for this mistake by losing ownership of all their oil and gas rights. Just like Ukraine lost all its mineral resource rights. And Syria lost all its oil and gas rights.

neutralobserver said:

100%. I think Iran should drop its nuclear program and take a step back right now. Live to fight another day...They can always regroup later. If Israel or the U.S. decides to wipe out their infrastructure, they’ll be set back decades, 30 or 40 years, easy BUT that is assuming US/Israel are good faith actors and they will actually stick to their promises. Who knows, they might STILL bomb critical infrastructure before stepping back. Iran just made terrible mistake. They should have started preparing for it during Biden's presidency because it's clear from Trump's 1st term that he wanted a war with Iran. This fight with Israel isn’t even really Iran’s war. Their leaders should be focused on fixing their own country instead of picking fights with Israel. But I think its more then just nukes at this point for Netanyahu.He wants to utterly devastate Iran's infrastructure and institutions so that they are no longer a threat for at least 20 to 30 years as it will take Iran decades to recover from all the devastation.

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Good faith bombing whenever they want like in Syria isn't peace though.
It's just mowing the grass successfully.

Holy mother.

could be the system was hacked? Or the Iranians are using some countermeasures in their missiles to confuse the interceptors?

delfer said:

Regarding China and Russia appearing to have abandoned Iran, I believe that they are just keeping themselves patient and reserved for the moment, as this whole thing could play out in a thousand different ways, and it would be unwise to make a rash move without letting all the pieces fall into place first.

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That's pretty much what I said. They are simply waiting to see if the US will bite on the bait, and then to see if Iran has the will to fight for 5-20 years. If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I expect to see support pour in.

CMP said:

Fingers crossed that the small chance pans out. A 20 year quagmire would be fantastic.

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Or the US can just effectively destroy Iranian UGFs housing their nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and whatever other relevant structures, and repeat every few years as necessary.

The US may face increased Iranian resistance over time, but "mowing the grass" here and now is not an impractical approach, at least until the Iranians figure out ways to hit the American homeland in a meaningful manner.

However, the Beltway, especially with the current administration running things, isn't going to figure such scenarios into its calculus until things actually get there.

tokenanalyst said:

I think F-35 would be difficult to defeat for any 4th gen jet without good AWACS and ground radar. But having the ability to shoot down UK and US refueling tankers would have diminished Israeli attack capabilities significantly. I'm more surprised about the lack of MANPADS to take down Israeli drones and other slow moving air assets.

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The issue might not so much be a lack of MANPADS, but making sure MANPADS manned by trained air defense soldiers are at the right place at the right time.

Chances are the places where Iran would concentrate AD assets are probably going to be struck by platforms that MANPADS will struggle to hit, while the airspace where Israeli airframes are flying low enjoy negligible AD coverage, including MANPADS.

Though as these IAF sorties against Iran continue, then sooner or later — especially if the Israelis misjudge the effects of their suppression of Iranian AD, or if the Iranians just get lucky — we'll start seeing credible reports of crewed IAF airframe losses over Iran.

tokenanalyst said:

Holy mother.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935458710685458461

could be the system was hacked?

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So are the Iranians firing fewer, but more sophisticated ballistic missiles at Israel?