Just looking at
gives me the impression that both Israel & Iran lost, regardless of whoever officially declares victory at the end.
The Israelis launched a war, then barely lasted a week before relying entirely on US/NATO air defense in aprticular. I'm curious if anyone has a good count of how many missiles & drones it took to deplete Israeli AD enough that even small salvos started getting through? Let's say it was minimum 500, maximum 1000, that's not much in the grand scheme of things. Most of the bigger or wealthier Middle Easterners can do it. Just get some good Air defense for the launchers & storage, and you have a credible threat, no nukes needed. You don't even need amazingly modern missiles.
This is probably Iran's own thinking. They did not intend to build nukes in the first place, let's remember they were negotiating in good faith with Trump right before this started, so expect them to give some concessions here or there so long as Trump doesn't push too hard. MAGA does not want a war, so my bet is he goes for a deal now.
Iran also lost a lot of assets, whoever rules Iran by next year will be too busy with internal issues regardless.