2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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AndrewJ

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AndrewJ said:
Guancha Trios is on live now, analyzing this conflict, and Iran's current status. :D

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Nilou said:
My mandarin is not really good, if someone can summarised the podcast it would be appreciated thanks,
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The podcast is over. Here's a brief:

1) Iran military is totally screwed in Day One, but they're recovering & performing better day by day. That's why Israel is begging US.
2) Iran Air Defense is totally gone. Firstly by terrorist-like infiltrator attacks (with FPV drones & Spikes), then air-based SEAD/DEAD ops.
3) After AD was gone, IAF got total air superiority over Iran. They destoried lots of exposed BM TEL vehicles outside, and blocked the entrances to missile city under mountains. (Even GBU-57 can't destroy these mountain bases, best IAF can do is to block entrances via strikes.)
4) TEL losses limited Iranian missiles' salvo scale in earlier days. But with more infiltrators caught & more mountain base entrances cleaned out, they're getting more available TELs & missile storage from mountain bases. Can see today's missile launch salvo scale is larger than days before. More BM TEL vehicles were seen around Tehran today in a coordinated launch.
5) Attacking TELs won't hurt storage too much, but will limit salvo scale, thus easier to intercept for Israel.
6) We've seen Israel's AD is significantly weaker under today's Iranian missile attack. Mossad HQ is totally destroyed today, without much AD seen. Iran is a much larger country than Israel, which means much more potential & logistics. Meanwhile Israel is getting out of ammo. So next thing to watch is whether US will intervene, otherwise Israel can't hold this conflict too long.

Attention: US THAAD ammo is estimated around 300~400 in total right now, will US keep this war going? With restricted Rare Earth export limits US' further ammo production, some country is more than happy if US intervenes. :cool:
 
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Randomuser

Randomuser

Captain
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AndrewJ said:
The podcast is over. Here's a brief:

1) Iran military is totally screwed in Day One, but they're recovering & performing better day by day. That's why Israel is begging US.
2) Iran Air Defense is totally gone. Mostly by terrorist-like infiltrator attacks (with FPV drones & Spikes) rather than air-based SEAD/DEAD ops.
3) After AD is gone, IAF got total air superiority over Iran. They destoried lots of outside BM TEL vehicles, and block the entrances to missile city under mountains. (Even GBU-57 can't destroy these mountain bases, best IAF can do is to block entrances via strikes.)
4) TEL losses limited Iranian missiles' salvo scale in earlier days. But with more infiltrators caught & more mountain base entrances cleaned out, they're getting more available TELs & missile storage from mountain bases. Can see today's missile launch salvo scale is larger than days before.
5) Attacking TELs won't hurt storage too much, but will limit salvo scale, thus easier to intercept for Israel.
6) We've seen Israel's AD is significantly weaker under today's Iranian missile attack. Iran is a much larger country than Israel, which means much more potential & logistics. Meanwhile Israel is getting out of ammo. So next thing to watch is whether US will intervene, otherwise Israel can't hold this conflict too long.

Attention: US THAAD ammo is estimated around 300~400 in total right now, will US keep this war going? With restricted Rare Earth export limits US' futher ammo production, some country is more than happy if US intervenes. :cool:
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This is in line with my view.

Iran has poor security, organization and strategy. Hence they got embarrassed real hard at the start. However Israel is a round 1 fighter that is very front heavy and is focused on offense. Since they failed to get a real knockout, Iran is regrouping, getting used to Israeli pattern and now counterattacking. With the leaders dead, Iran are using more of their intuition and adaptability more to figure out what to do next. Israel which is focused mainly on offense and not defense finds out it bit off a bit more than it could chew which is why they are begging the US to step in. They might not last if its a long scale battle given the size of Iran.

In the previous wars Israel fought, Arab states usually collapsed quite quickly after the initial strike. They just can't take it. However this time despite being clumsy as hell, Iran seems to be able to still stand which is kinda concerning for Israel.

So now will US step in? Thats the next big question. Trump has a hard choice to make.
 
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AndrewJ

Junior Member
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sequ said:
Except for the rest I can't agree with this conclusion. Also the SEAD/DEAD was done both by sabotage teams as well as the IAF itself.
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I've re-edited the brief. It was not that rigorous last version.

(What Guancha Trios said is) Iranian AD is layered. The ops in Day One is accomplished in two steps:

1) Ground infiltrators firstly destroyed the largest-ranged AD radar/TELs, which are the biggest threat for IAF.
2) After that, IAF were in, including F-35/F-15/F-16, conducting SEAD/DEAD air strikes against the rest less-dangerous AD.
 
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AndrewJ

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RottenPanzer said:
It is certainly still active though posturing into a more ambush oriented doctrine it seems.

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The footage you displayed shows an exposed AD is destroyed.

I'm sure there're still some rest, but they're no longer layered and organized enough to pose a threat, and just preys of F-35 with a matter of time.

F-35 is flying over Iran everywhere at ease from Day One, also now. :rolleyes:
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

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Sinnavuuty said:
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It seems that some fake news about Israeli aircraft flying over western Iran is not true. Tabriz is located in northwest Iran near Turkey and Azerbaijan.
View attachment 154682
The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier crossed the Malacca strait this morning and entered the Indian Ocean.

The carrier strike group is expected to arrive in the Middle-East in 2-3 days.
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USS Liberty 2.0. I wonder how those sailors onboard are feeling.
 
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delfer

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RottenPanzer said:
It is certainly still active though posturing into a more ambush oriented doctrine it seems.

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What exactly are we supposed to be looking at here?

Very little information for geolocation. Grainy. Typical Israeli infrared recording, so it wouldn’t even be hard for them to CGI or AI the whole thing. Footage is like five seconds long. No real aftermath assessment. No ammo cook off or secondaries. Could be inside of Israel for all we know. Or old. Or a decoy.

If the Russian MOD were to have posted something similar, people would be laughing. But for some reason Israel can release just about any clip of the most blurry, crappy footage and people will believe it without a shred of doubt.
 
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