Well, I think that was obvious when the Kiev government had to bus in football hooligans to enforce their will.
The chaos and slaughter unleashed by those thugs in Odessa must have given many even in the Kiev government pause.
Unleashing sectarian hatred and racial violence won't save Ukraine, quite the contrary, it is the most sure fire way to ensure its destruction and disintegration.
Ukraine is falling apart because its own people are divided. And Odessa has only accelerated that by further polarising the people.
Even a strong, unified people can be vulnerable to foreign manipulation. With a divided populous and two superpowers, one global and one regional, playing tug of war with Ukraine, is it any wonder the nation is fracturing?
I think the key question now is not whether Odessa and the other Eastern provinces will break away, but rather how many would follow and how far Putin wants to go.
The biggest problem are the obstacles and inherent contradictions in agreeing a solution.
I think if we look at the situation with the major internal and external players, you will see why.
1) The EU
Despite noises off, there will be no intervention from the EU beyond sanctions against Russia. There is no definitive European voice and most hawkish noises are coming from the EU commission, who are unelected and have no real power to do anything. The disconnect between the Commission, the National Members States Governments and the general populace has never been greater. Many in Western Europe are very concerned by nature of EU involvement to date and seem likely to punish the political classes to an unprecedented degree in the EU parliamentary elections on May 25th.
2) The USA
Has made it clear that they have no intention of getting directly involved in military conflict in Ukraine and without the US, no European army will set foot either. Like the EU, US reaction will be confined to sanctions.
I have little doubt that most noises from Washington and really intended for domestic consumption and while the entry and integration of the Ukraine into NATO would be desirable, they know (that without military force backing) its a pipe dream and that the main concern of the US is actually the vacant White House in 2016, where it seems likely that being the keenest to bash Russia will be a major theme of forthcoming nomination and election races.
3) Russian Federation
When they say they do not want to invade, I believe them. They are determined not to see the Ukraine embedded into the EU and NATO and given that they care more about it and are prepared to de more about it, than the other powers are most likely to get their way. At the same time they also really do not want to have to pick up the bill after an intervention.
That being said, I believe Putin is serious about R2P if things get too wildly out of hand. If however his land forces do in the last instance, have to roll over the border, he will go all the way and not stop until he reaches the EU borders.
This is however the extreme reaction and I have no doubt that Putin will only do the minimum he has to do to achieve his ends and do virtually nothing for as long as he able to do so. If he does have to act, there are plenty of other steps to take first. The obvious first step; straight out of the NATO play book, would be to declare a No Fly Zone and Safe Havens in the East and use airpower to destroy Ukrainian forces on the ground.
Putins preference though will be simply to encourage the implosion of the Kiev regime and its replacement with a Government more to his liking.
4) The Maidan appointed Government in Kiev
This is an administration in crisis at every level. The sensible option would be to do a deal with Putin and agree the more open federal structure. The trouble is they cannot and the reason they cannot, is because after rejecting the Russian funding deal offered in November, they only have the IMF and the IMF money is only available based on the disposal of valuable Industrial Assets in the Donbass and these would become rapidly unavailable under a more Federal system as this is precisely what the the Pro-Federalists that live there are looking to avoid. This means that they either have to fold or push militarily to the very end.
It does look as though they are unwilling to do the former and incapable of achieving the latter.
5) The Pro Federalists
At this point these guys simply need to survive and weaken the perception of legitimacy and competence of the Kiev government. Things seem to be going there way. Events in Odessa will have horrified the majority of ordinary Ukrainians across the country, the apparent poor progress of the military operation in Slavyansk, plus ever weakening central control on many regions plays to their benefit.
Further of course as the terms on the IMF loans and the austerity that they bring become more widely known, the attraction of the Federalist cause, the much cheaper money from Russia and reinstated Gas Price Discounts could be enough to turn the tide against the Maidan regime once and for all.
around 1989, which was complicated anyway (for example, the certificate which finally arrived was personally signed by Gorbachev LOL) -- my point is his "basic instinct" is to be pro-Russian if you know what I'm saying, but he's cool, knows stuff -- he's the Astronautics Expert in the pub, in the way as I'm Naval expert LOL)
