First of all, I believe this is a propaganda method by Australian politicians to promote aukus. But 21 new nuclear sub is possible. It is 7 years From 2024 to 2030, according to the progress of the past two years and the construction capacity of Huludao, 2 SSNs each year are reasonable. Based on historical data, an SSBN every two years is not surprising. These two add up to 18. If the three 093Bs launched in the past two years are added in, it will be exactly 21…
09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Here's my own take on the matter.
If the claimed "21x SSN + SSBN" figure (by 2030, that is) is anywhere near accurate, then according to the 14FYP (2021-2025) warship construction plan for the PLAN previously alleged by pop3, there would be ~11x SSNs + SSBNs launched for that period. Assuming similar rates of nuclear submarine construction by Huludao going forward, that leaves ~10x more to be built within the 15FYP (2026-2030), which should be reasonable.
Though, given the present and near-future geopolitical situations in the IndoPac, I do believe that the PLA CMC will procure more and more advanced SSNs towards the end of this decade, as these underwater bayonets are especially crucial for China's war effort in a hypothetical Pacific War 2.0.
Alongside the recently-completed expansion of newer and larger submarine construction facilities at Huludao, followed by the gradual spool-up of the construction speed & capacity in the coming years (as the expansion of qualified shipyard worker pool comes into play), I do believe that we would see Huludao launching more nuclear-powered submarines every year for the coming years.
One more thing, though - What I should've mentioned clearly WRT to my "18/21 nuke subs by 2023 is very likely an underestimate" claim in the above post is that this should also take the "mini-nuke" SSNs into account, which I have provided . These "mini-nuke" SSNs are expected to be constructed at Jiangnan and Wuchang instead of Huludao, and should allow greater numbers of them to be procured quicker than the larger, proper SS(G)Ns, i.e. 093/A/B and 095.
Hence, adding to previous "XX SSNs & SSBNs launched" claim, the total number of Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to be launched by 2030 is most likely to be greater than just 21.
I'm not sure why people are even debating the "21 nuclear submarines thing".
The news video segment from the outset made it very clear that it was stating "21 nuclear submarines would exist/be in service by 2030" inclusive of existing nuclear submarines (but minus retirement of some of the oldest nuclear submarines). That in turn is likely from a US report to congress on PLA/PLAN.
If people want to talk about how many additional nuclear submarines they might build, then they should stop talking about "21 new nuclear submarines by 2030" as if that number has any meaning because if anyone keeps using that number then it means they didn't read or watch the video segment.
Instead, just talk about nuclear submarine production capacity in general.
What makes this all the more head-slam-into-wall maddening is people here are acknowledging this idiotic Sky news video segment to begin with.
Can people stop debasing themselves and this forum, and actually consider what news and what sources are actually even worth acknowledging and which ones should be actively disregarded? Seriously, sometimes there is news where actively ignoring them is the best, most healthy thing for this forum and for PLA watching, and the mere acknowledgement of its existence drags the discourse down.
The news video segment from the outset made it very clear that it was stating "21 nuclear submarines would exist/be in service by 2030" inclusive of existing nuclear submarines (but minus retirement of some of the oldest nuclear submarines). That in turn is likely from a US report to congress on PLA/PLAN.
If people want to talk about how many additional nuclear submarines they might build, then they should stop talking about "21 new nuclear submarines by 2030" as if that number has any meaning because if anyone keeps using that number then it means they didn't read or watch the video segment.
Instead, just talk about nuclear submarine production capacity in general.
What makes this all the more head-slam-into-wall maddening is people here are acknowledging this idiotic Sky news video segment to begin with.
Can people stop debasing themselves and this forum, and actually consider what news and what sources are actually even worth acknowledging and which ones should be actively disregarded? Seriously, sometimes there is news where actively ignoring them is the best, most healthy thing for this forum and for PLA watching, and the mere acknowledgement of its existence drags the discourse down.
Old picture from a few years ago, that we are aware of.
Between 1974 and 1980 inclusive the US launched 22 nuclear submarines of the Los Angeles and Ohio Class.
Wiki is a mess when it comes to the PLA. We have no indications that two 096 are being built. We heard some stuff about new SSBN construction and that's it.