Strategic implications of Chinese/US AI development

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by shifty_ginosaji, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. Tam
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    Tam Captain
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    Huawei needs to sell its Kirin chips to other Chinese brands. Currently, kind of like Samsung's Exynos series, Kirin are only for Huawei phones exclusively. Should Huawei sell Kirin chips to the likes of Oppo, One Plus, Vivo, ZTE, Xiaomi, Meizu, etc,. Huawei will emerge as a true Qualcomm competitor. Of course this means competition to your smartphone business. But Samsung is now realizing they are making more money selling parts --- OLED screens, memory chips and so on --- than selling smartphones, where margins are getting so thin. Sony's smartphone Xperia line, is another example of a smartphone line that has been buried by the intense competition, but Sony makes good money selling its digital image sensors to smartphone manufacturers.

    Huawei faces the scenario that if Meng is convicted, they can be forced to lose the rights of using Google software (Play Store, Gmail, YouTube, Maps and so on) on their phones, which can kill them in the international market. Their smartphone market can evaporate just like that. So their alternative is to go into the chip business themselves, compete against the like of Mediatek and Qualcomm, providing the Chinese alternative to these brands (Mediatek is Taiwan based) that supply the main SOC's of a smartphone. You trade one business for another with greater potential.
     
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  2. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Losing Google is a double edged sword. It means Huawei loses a fraction of the market (international) which don't really buy their phones anywhere near as much. I wonder what the details are but I'm sure Huawei makes almost all its money from selling to Chinese consumers who are banned from using US spyware products from Google (widely and publicly proven fact rather than conjecture and accusation :rolleyes:). Western consumers are officially banned from Huawei products since forever and the few that get them through online sources are usually phone/electronics geeks.

    The wider international market WILL still want to have Google software and losing Google for that audience does mean they won't buy a Huawei but Google loses out on their share as well. This won't stop Huawei from still making serious profits. Losing the international market is too small a matter especially if they are selling other telecommunication equipment. Western nations have always been banned from buying Huawei equipment therefore there's nothing to lose there. Nations not aligned to US policy will not care and do as they please anyway.

    Everyone needs to remember that Huawei's business is far from just phone assembling and profits from the international market for their phones is a fraction of their bottom line. For every Huawei phone not sold to an international buyer, Google loses their share as well.

    All this recent business with Huawei is further proof to Chinese that the US is hellbent on pushing China down wherever it gets half a chance. The trade war has ripped into the US economy as hard if not worse than it has into China. The recent lift in rates and drop in the market shows the lifeblood of the US economy is uncertain about what their leader will flip flop in next. Here, China's got the advantage of authoritarianism. Ironic. But it shows the Chinese they should not be sitting on their hands and know the US wants to treat China as the enemy and will always act against it when convenient. Hopefully all of this is a wake-up call for the CCP and Chinese everywhere. Heed the warning. Become self-reliant and continue trade protectionist policies because the US is by FAR the biggest abuser of trade practices yet screams the loudest when complaining about others taking even a step too much in their own interest. Worst hypocritical Superpower in all of recorded history.
     
    #32 ougoah, Dec 21, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  3. Tam
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    Tam Captain
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    Google is likely to fight any Huawei ban tooth and nail. It would give one Android vendor --- Samsung --- too much power over the Android world, and could end up dictating terms to Google. Huawei is an important counterbalance. In fact its important for Google that Android vendors counterbalance each other. Google and tech industry lobbying may have influence the Trump Administration to "help" ZTE from a software ban. Also interesting is that Google is working with Huawei and Google's next generation mobile operating system --- code named Fuschia --- has been reported running on a Huawei handset.

    Still, I do think Huawei must think of entering the semiconductor business by selling the Kirin SOCs to smartphone vendors. This helps breaks that Qualcomm monopoly, which only Mediatek is challenging.

    Western consumers should not be lumped as all US. Europe gets a free hand on Huawei phones and tablets. Huawei devices isn't technically banned from the US, Huawei voluntarily isn't letting phones like the Mate 20 Pro --- probably the best Android if not the best smartphone in the world, if not the best camera --- sell in the US. But many online retailers are selling Huawei Mediapad M5 tablets, and these are superb for video watching (Netflix, YouTube, Amazon Prime and so on) or play high performance games like PUBG, which is published by Tencent, or Knives Out or Rules of Survival by NetEase.

    Selling high performance mobiles help another aspect of the Chinese tech industry ---- the mobile games industry --- which there are many top Chinese developed games.

    I would like to share my opinion that security leaks via telecom equipment is vastly over exaggerated. The biggest cybersecurity threats comes not from hardware, but from software, starting with operating systems --- Microsoft Windows, Apple iOS and MacOS, Linux, and Google's Android. The next comes from the browsers. Another threat comes from various smart devices. I remember there was a social media site that showed and tracked all the Fitbits in the world and showed them in a global map. It end up showing secret US bases where none is supposed to exist, as it showed outlines of Fitbit trails. What about all those Amazon Echos and Google Homes, or your Smart TV.
     
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  4. Weaasel
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    Weaasel New Member
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    Huawei devices while not banned in the United States are not sold through telecoms service providers and are as such not sim locked and are very expensive than phones sold through telecoms providers.

    But it is CLEAR that the United States officialdom wants to and is finding ways of destroying Huawei and other major Chinese tech companies. As much as possible, China should have supply chains for its tech companies located domestically and should produce high tech chips and chip making equipment commercially domestically. Demonstrating that capability to the US and its vassals will render their efforts meaningless and one will actually see its allies much less swayed by US attempts to restrict China.
     
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  5. Weaasel
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    Weaasel New Member
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    Huawei possesses the intellectual property for the design of the Kirin chips. Chinese entities have the capability of designing and programming complex algorithims as sophisticated as anywhere else in the world, but with regard to making the chips themselves they are presently commercially making them at finenesses of 22 nm at most. That's the highest specs that the US and US allied countries that possess the technology to commercially produce chip making equipment grant to China. I may be mistaken, ASML was due to supply a Chinese equipment maker with equipment to be delivered in January but their facility mysteriously caught fire and the date has been delayed. I do not know what specs the ASML equipment is to deliver though.

    I read that there are Chinese companies that commercially produce equipment capable of up to 28 nm. Considering that most of the most advanced companies go between 22 nm and 14 nm, China is like one generation behind commercially.

    However, this equipment reported by the Chinese Academy of Science if truly capable and commercially viable is a big game changer for China. Within 2-3 years it should be commercialized massively.
     
  6. Icmer
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    Icmer Junior Member
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    Samsung does not make Exynos exclusive to their own devices. For example, Meizu has used Exynos SOCs in their flagship phones for many years.
     
  7. Icmer
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    Icmer Junior Member
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    You blatantly acknowledge that your statements about Huawei's overseas market and revenue are purely your own conjecture. Therefore you shouldn't be surprised to be corrected.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/368509/revenue-of-huawei-by-region/
     
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  8. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Everybody and their brother are building chip manufacturing Another entry in the crowded field
    http://www.atimes.com/article/foxconn-said-to-plan-9-billion-chip-project-in-china/

    Foxconn said to plan $9 billion chip project in China
    iPhone supplier’s investment will be subsidized by Beijing amid trade tensions
    By ASIA TIMES STAFF DECEMBER 22, 2018 12:25 AM (UTC+8)
    Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology is reportedly set to launch a massive semiconductor manufacturing project in mainland China as Beijing’s push to lead high-tech industries has become a focal point of trade tensions.

    Nikkei Asian Review first reported the planned investment which sources said will total around US$9 billion, a majority of which is being subsidized by the Chinese government.

    The new production facility is expected to propel Foxconn into competition with leading chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

    The plant, which will be located in the southern city of Zhuhai, could also help reduce Foxconn’s reliance on Apple as demand for smartphones slows. Foxconn depends on Apple for more than half of its annual revenue.

    Sources said the project could be delayed or changed because of political issues.

    Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, which maps out a plan for China to become a leader in high-tech industries, has drawn the ire of the Trump administration, including in the report calling for the tariffs that are currently in place. The issue of state subsidies has been one of the most often cited gripes among US officials.

    While Beijing has sent signals that it is willing to change the language of the industrial policy, there is little expectation that they would change the substance of a plan that is crucial to Beijing’s efforts to restructure its economy.
     
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  9. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Yes Huawei is more than handset maker Most of the business come from communication infrastructure
    In 5G right now they are the only game in town Nobody even come close
    http://www.atimes.com/article/huawei-claims-germany-france-and-japan-using-its-5g-products/

    Huawei claims Germany, France and Japan using its 5G products
    Participation in next-generation network trials continues apace despite US-led boycott effort
    By ASIA TIMES STAFF DECEMBER 22, 2018 2:55 AM (UTC+8)

    Huawei, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker has run into its share of roadblocks recently, thanks in no small part to a US-led campaign to boycott its participation in 5G networks.

    But according to the firm, the allegations that it poses a national security threat have not derailed operations overseas.

    “[Huawei’s] global operations remain stable, with businesses in Germany running normally and its involvement in 5G construction by French telecom operators remaining active,” China Daily reported, citing a statement from the firm.

    An internal statement sent to Huawei employees on Wednesday also said that the company is replying to 5G bids from Japanese operators and “actively participating in local 5G trials.”

    The statements come after a wave of news regarding possible restrictions placed on operators in overseas market directed at blocking out Huawei.

    While neither France nor Germany has issued government policies restricting the use of Huawei equipment for 5G purposes, Japan issued new rules recently that would effectively prohibit government procurement of Huawei or ZTE gear.

    The Chinese titan has already been blocked out of the US, Australian and New Zealand markets, but there are conflicting signals from Europe. French mobile network operator Orange said earlier this month that it has ruled out using Huawei as a 5G kit supplier for the next generation roll out in France.

    Huawei has been participating in 5G trials with Germany’s largest carrier, Deutsche Telekom, since earlier this year, though the company said this month that they were reevaluating infrastructure suppliers amid security concerns. Recent media reports have also suggested that the German operator offered to shed reliance on Huawei gear in its bid for approval of a merger for its US unit, T-Mobile, with Sprint.

    In the UK, BT Group announced recently that they would strip Huawei products from key parts of existing wireless networks and would not use them in core of 5G networks, but stopped short of announcing a blanket ban. On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Huawei has signed contracts with all four UK mobile networks for 5G trials.

    The dailyReport
     
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  10. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Via xyz from CDF AMEC product of 5nm etching machine will be used by TSMC
    As I said uS effort to slow down or scuttle Chinese advances in semiconductor is exercise in futility
    The Horse has left the barn long time ago It just create animosity and bitter taste

    https://www.eet-china.com/news/201812191030.html
    在台积电的5nm生产线中,将有来自深圳中微半导体的5nm等离子体蚀刻机,自主研发,近日已经通过了台积电的验证,将用于全球首条5nm工艺生产线。

    gtranslate
    AMEC's 5nm etching machine will be used for TSMC 5nm chip manufacturing
    6-7 minutes

     in TSMC 5nm production line, there will be 5nm plasma etching machine from Shenzhen AMEC, independent research and development, TSMC has already passed the authentication will be used for the world's first 5nm process line.

    As the world's number one foundry, TSMC's new process is running all the way, 7nm EUV extreme ultraviolet lithography process has been completed for the first time taped, 5nm technology will also be the risk of trial production began in April 2019, production is expected in 2020.

    But we all know, it is a master of semiconductor processes high-precision technology, new technology is not completely get TSMC own, relying instead on equipment and technology supply the whole industry chain, such as we are more familiar lithography, it is generally from Dutch ASML.

    It is understood that TSMC 5nm production line will have 5nm plasma etching machine from Shenzhen AMEC, independent research and development, TSMC has already passed the authentication will be used for the world's first 5nm process line.

    Micro-Fabrication with TSMC in 28nm process generation will have to cooperate, 10nm, 7nm process has been inherited, it is worth mentioning that AMEC is the only access to the mainland domestic equipment manufacturers TSMC 7nm etching process equipment.

    According to reports, plasma etching machine is a chip manufacturing apparatus, a key for micro-engraved on the chip, each line is deep and accuracy of thousands to a few thousandths of hair diameter one half, the control accuracy is very high.

    For example, microscopic 16nm logic process 60 has a multilayer microstructure to 1000 through a plurality of process steps to overcome the technical details can be processed out of tens of thousands.

    Micro-described semiconductor CEO Yinzhi Yao said: "art miniature lettering on rice, generally 200 engraved characters is the limit, while our process, plasma etching machine on the chip, corresponding to 10 can be engraved on rice the level of one hundred million words. "

    Perhaps in the eyes of many, not as lithography etching technology is so "noble", but equally indispensable in chip etching processing and the production process. In fact, according to the preceding etching machine is mainly lithography "drawing out" line to the wafer deeper micro engraving, carve a trench or a contact hole and then removing the surface of the photoresist, thereby forming an etching line pattern. Popular speaking, like the role of the lithography machine before engraving tracing plot line on the board or stone, etcher is required and strict accordance with depicted good lithography lines to "carve out" scoring pattern. Therefore, in the whole production process is required to use the chip lithography, etching machine used before, then the two devices used repeatedly, until the complete circuit diagram of the designed conveyed until the wafer.

    [​IMG]
    Chip production process

    But in the past, because the mainland does not have the ability to mass production of semiconductor etching equipment, basically rely on imports, while the United States and Europe and other countries to prevent the progress of China's semiconductor industry, has been operating for many years in this field of technology blockade. Since semiconductor equipment hundreds of millions of millions of R & D costs as well as ultra-high technical difficulty, resulting in mainland China has been very difficult to go in the field. However, after 2015, the Chinese mainland has grown out of a number of semiconductor etching equipment suppliers (such as silicon etching and metal etch main northern CRE, etc.) to AMEC represented, and because of the micro-plasma the quality and quantity of the etching machine body gradually shoulder to shoulder international companies, among the front-line level, the US Department of Commerce also the cancellation of export controls on China etching machine.

    For a long time, etching machine's core technology has been monopoly of foreign manufacturers, while AMEC begin 65nm plasma dielectric etching machine, 45nm, 32nm, 28nm, 16nm, all the way down to 10nm, 7nm etching machine has run on the client's production line , 5nm etching machine is about to be adopted TSMC.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Dr. Ni and strengthen the country AMEC chief expert, vice president, said etching machine was some developed countries of export control products, but in recent years, this high-end equipment disappeared in the export control list. This shows that if we break the "strangle hold" technology, export restrictions will cease to exist. Today, micro-Lin Pan, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, American and Japanese companies Hitachi four together, make up the first tier international supply etcher of 7nm chip production line.

    But pay special attention to, AMEC get 5nm etching machine, completely equal to 5nm chips can be produced, because the etching process is only one of many aspects of one only.

    Overall, the gap between China semiconductor manufacturing technology is very large, especially lithography, the best Shanghai Microelectronics only do the localization of 90nm.

    Of course, in another aspect, also of different dimensions of semiconductor technology to catch up, narrowing the gap, such technology is still very advanced 14nm, 14nm in the field, north CRE silicon / metal etching machine, the film deposition North CRE equipment, north CRE monolithic annealing equipment, cleaning equipment Shanghai Sheng United States, have been successfully developed, the ongoing verification.


    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...emory-and-logic-device-designs-300612248.html
    [​IMG]
     
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