Can the US derail 2025?

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Trump did slap tariffs on rare earth elements from China. Smart guy eh?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Rare earth elements aren't found like veins of gold or silver. They're mostly microscopic. Tons of earth have to excavated and processed just to get a usable amount meaning also the land is strip-mined. The process requires hazardous chemicals and expensive machinery to separate the elements from the earth. Some these rare earths are natural by-products of radioactive elements in the earth. They get concentrated too during these processes. If it's so easy, why doesn't the West do it themselves? China sits at the sweet spot of the rare earths industry. It has the cheap labor the West doesn't have and the technology poor countries can't afford. The rare earths that China supplies is not called what it truly is... another outsourcing story. Why? Because the US wants its rare earths cheap. So cheap they don't dare speak of it with the standard anti-China propaganda trade story. They don't want to let it out that for an American workers to do it, they would have to pay six figures for each of them because of hazard pay and the high insurance costs to cover them. Because it would cost so much for them to produce, that cost transfers over to what the price will be for customers to purchase. You know what Western countries would have to do to have an independent from China rare earth supply on the cheap? They would have to exploit third world countries and have their people do all the work with few protections and pay. Essentially violate people's human rights.


This in addition to China having the most patents with regards to rare earths mining, refining and recycling, with over at least 23,000 patents.

A lot of the byproduct of rare earth extraction is radioactive.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
My opinion is that XJP's visit to the rare earths plant may just be promoting local industry for the Made in China 2025 initiative. But the timing was all wrong and its possible to misinterpret as China readying to use rare earths as a weapon on the trade war. But the lessons of 2011 still come to mind and I don't think they are going to pull it. Remember Global Times doesn't speak for the government, Xinhua does.

For what its worth, really got the world scared, and that may have served a collateral purpose, which is why China didn't suppress it.

But even if rare earths are not used in the trade wars, expect demand for it in China to skyrocket and prices to soar. A lot of it are going to be used with technologies that will make China more nationally energy efficient, from lighting to EV cars, and the reduction of energy consumption in a nationwide scale means China will buy less oil. This will sink oil prices in the future and no buying of oil and gas from the US.
 
ppl really tend to over play its card. does US rely on China rare earth now yes, can it get rare earth elsewhere if china stop it, yes. will it cost more sure, but its not like every component require enormous amount of rare earth. once rare earth card is used, then its gone!!.

Not sure about that. Even if they invest significant amount of time and money to build the infrastructure to mine and process rare earth. Most of these institutions will be uncompetitive and fail once rare earth again becomes readily available from China.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Not sure about that. Even if they invest significant amount of time and money to build the infrastructure to mine and process rare earth. Most of these institutions will be uncompetitive and fail once rare earth again becomes readily available from China.

Its already happened multiple times with Mountain pass mine

In 1998, the mine's separation plant ceased production of refined rare earth compounds; it continued to produce bastnäsite concentrate
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The mine closed in 2002, though processing of previously mined ore continued, in response to both environmental restrictions and competition from Chinese suppliers.
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In 2008, Chevron sold the mine to privately held Molycorp Minerals LLC, a company formed to revive the Mountain Pass mine. Molycorp announced plans to spend $500 million to reopen and expand the mine, and on July 29, 2010, it raised about $400 million through an
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, selling 28,125,000 shares at $14 under the ticker symbol MCP on the New York Stock Exchange.
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In December 2010, Molycorp announced that it had secured all the environmental permits needed to build a new ore processing plant at the mine; construction would begin in January 2011, and was expected to be completed by the end of 2012. On August 27, 2012, the company announced that mining had restarted.

The processing plant was in full production on June 25, 2015, when Molycorp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with outstanding bonds in the amount of $US 1.4 billion. The company's shares were removed from the NYSE.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
You know, as a computer guy, I think China can survive on the 2nd hand market alone in the case of a desktop/server CPU embargo. Those older generation server chips go for cheap and perform relatively similarly.

There is nothing wrong with or shame in using recycled computer hardware. Probably save more money in the end.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Even the MP has chinese partner that act as consultant
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, a Chengdu-based rare earths producer that is listed on the Shanghai exchange, owns less than 10 per cent in MP. It provides technical advice and acts as the main distributor of MP’s products in China.
Now china levy 25% tax on ore processing because they don't have refining capacity
As I said before
“Our high ore grade and quality gives us significant competitive advantage in the ease and cost of processing, but we face different cost pressures from environmental compliance, labour, waste water processing and transport,” Rosenthal said.
“It is worrying times for Shenghe and the other US consortium members as there is little capacity to process materials outside China,” said Merriman.

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Caught between Trump and its biggest market, America’s sole rare earths mine is an unusual victim in the US-China trade war
  • MP Materials, which runs the Mountain Pass rare earths mine, said it will kick-start its own processing operation by the end of 2020
  • China last week more than doubled the import tariffs on ores and concentrates to 25 per cent, effective June
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Published: 10:30pm, 26 May, 2019

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when US census data began. Mountain Pass lost its two-decade dominance of the world’s rare earths supply in the mid-1980s when China began to exploit, extract and process the nation’s vast reserves, ending up with a stranglehold of about 90 per cent of global supply today.

US President Donald Trump, who ordered his administration to more than double US duties on US$200 billion worth of Chinese products to 25 per cent, had wanted to slap a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese rare earths in July, but dropped it from a long list last September.

“This trade war, and the fact that the US has not retaliated against the unilateral tariff on our products highlights [America’s] reliance on Chinese rare earth products supply,” Las Vegas-based MP Material’s chief executive, Michael Rosenthal, told the South China Morning Post. “It focuses American manufacturers’ and government officials’ attention back on what we are trying to do and can do.”

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A front loader in the open pit mine at the Mountain Pass Rare Earth facility in Mountain Pass, California on June 29, 2015. The mine lost its two-decade dominance of global rare earths supply in the 1980s when China exploited the nation’s vast reserves. Photo: REUTERS
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The deposits at Mountain Pass, discovered in 1949, contain cerium, lanthanum, neodymium and europium. It was exploited by Molycorp for more than half a century until the company filed for bankruptcy in 2015, as tight environmental laws in California made the processing of
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– a highly polluting and potentially radioactive process – commercially non-viable
.
China’s rare earths miners and refiners, based primarily in Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi province, had been catching up with Mountain Pass since the mid-1980s, taking advantage of the country’s lax environmental laws and lower labour cost.


“Our high ore grade and quality gives us significant competitive advantage in the ease and cost of processing, but we face different cost pressures from environmental compliance, labour, waste water processing and transport,” Rosenthal said.

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Still, modifying and completing the downstream processing facilities at Mountain Pass had always been a key part of MP’s business plan since it bought the mine in 2017 from Molycorp. The strategy was given added impetus last year when China imposed a 10 per cent tariff on imported ores, leaving MP in a hard place between Trump and its largest market.

MP, which sells its output primarily to Chinese processors, was able to offset the initial China tariff by reducing its fixed cost per unit of output through raising production, Rosenthal said.

Some of Molycorp’s strategic “mistakes,” such as the investments in expensive processes and facilities to extract the low-value cerium, can also be corrected with adjustments to the production lines at Mountain Pass, Rosenthal said.

“Molycorp went on the wrong path. Neodymium magnet materials should have been the focus. Cerium prices five to seven years ago were four times today’s prices. I don’t think Molycorp anticipated prices would fall so fast and for so long,” said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of rare earth and electric battery metals consultancy Adamas Intelligence.

f5bd83d8-7df0-11e9-8126-9d0e63452fe9_972x_090330.JPG

Rare earth oxides (clockwise from top centre): praseodymium, cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, samarium, and gadolinium. Photo: AP/US Department of Agriculture
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The vast majority of the project’s downstream processing facilities for separating materials and extracting out the useful minerals has been built by Molycorp at a cost of around US$1.5 billion.

Rosenthal declined to divulge the spending required but said no fresh financing needs to be raised to complete the work.

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, a Chengdu-based rare earths producer that is listed on the Shanghai exchange, owns less than 10 per cent in MP. It provides technical advice and acts as the main distributor of MP’s products in China.
“It is worrying times for Shenghe and the other US consortium members as there is little capacity to process materials outside China,” said Merriman.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
The deposits at Mountain Pass, discovered in 1949, contain cerium, lanthanum, neodymium and europium. It was exploited by Molycorp for more than half a century until the company filed for bankruptcy in 2015, as tight environmental laws in California made the processing of
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– a highly polluting and potentially radioactive process – commercially non-viable
.

American lawyer sharks will have a field day if some workers involved in the mining and processing of these highly pollutant stuffs get stricken with cancers!!
the lawsuits and compensations would bankrupt any company !!
Lawyers and labour unions are the obstacles to American would be enterprises.
 

Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not sure about that. Even if they invest significant amount of time and money to build the infrastructure to mine and process rare earth. Most of these institutions will be uncompetitive and fail once rare earth again becomes readily available from China.

Mining resources and infrastructure are not an issue. Refining and waste management is. As others have pointed out, much of China's competitive edge stems from the disregard for worker safety and environmental damage. However, there is also a degree of technological edge in the refinement process. It will likely take several years to catch up to that.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mining resources and infrastructure are not an issue. Refining and waste management is. As others have pointed out, much of China's competitive edge stems from the disregard for worker safety and environmental damage. However, there is also a degree of technological edge in the refinement process. It will likely take several years to catch up to that.

Horsefeathers!
That's a really ignorant remark. Whose disregard is worse, China's or the developed West?
Developed countries already knew this fact and they encourage the processing there anyway, and blame the Chinese for doing it? You enjoy the product and pooh pooh the producers. You love the food but look down upon the kitchen staff.That's the Western hypocrisy and horsefeathers of morale high horse that we the Easterners really love to hate your guts out to the bone. Your hypocrisy is so thick you can cut it through with a knife.
 
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