short term yes, but once that card is used, its gone. US/aussie and other all have rare earth, they import from china because price and processing. So rare earth card should not used easily.
Can the US derail 2025?
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
But they don't have the technology and even the mine in US send their ore to China for processing
It will at least take 3 years to built mine and the processing plant from the ground up Then China can flood the world with Rare earth and repeat the 80's when "China price" bankrupt those mine and close the mine
Extracting rare earth from rock is dirty business and China has the latest technology and the chemical China hold the patent, chemicals production. BTW the mountain pass ore is light rare earth and not heavy one
Rare earth from mountain pass belongs to a category called "light rare earth elements". the most critical, useful elements for industry are "heavy rare earth elements". rare earth itself and products are not toxic, but the process itself is very toxic, using all of kinds of toxic chemicals in order to extract those elements from the rare earth. some of toxic chemicals for this process are only patented and produced in china. so cost of environmental protection and cleaning up facilities are enormous.
Increasing mining operations is easy but increasing processing of the raw material is hard. If you believe the solution is simply to reopen a single mines in the US you are completely missing the point.
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the mine in US and other place already open, its just they still rely on china for processing, but if china stop rare earth, MP said they can get the process etc up in about a year. Just like Huawei, its one time use card, once used it US will subsidized the industry and decrease its reliance on China rare earth. Its upto china when and how to used it.
aussie also have rare earth mining operation.
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Engineering project is fraught with delay and delay I think those people with no engineering background can talk what they want but the reality is any engineering project normally has delay Plus as I said China control and hold patent on the chemical that is used for those process
Good luck finding substitute
Plus most of the american mine are light rare earth and not the heavy one One single mine is not going to resolve the shortage overnight. good luck finding substitute for the heavy rare earth
China Has Rare Earths Plan Ready to Go If Trade War Deepens
Beijing has readied a plan to restrict exports of rare earths to the U.S. if needed, as both sides in the trade war dig in for a protracted dispute, according to people familiar with the matter.
The development follows a flurry of threats this week from state media and officials, highlighting the potential use of the strategic minerals as a . China produces about 80% of the world’s rare earths, and an even higher proportion of the elements in their processed forms.
“Currently, it’s still just a possibility that China may ban or do some kind of restrictions,” Racket Hu, a researcher at Shanghai Metals Market, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “But if it does happen, then we believe prices of rare earths will surge,” he said, citing what happened in 2010 when China curbed shipments to Japan.
The National Development & Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment on the plan.
Shares in rare earths companies rallied on Friday, with mainland-listed rising as much as 5.9% to the highest level in a year, while ’s stock gained as much as 4.4%. In Sydney, stock in took gains this month to 51%.
Heavy rare earths include dysprosium, used in magnets commonplace in almost all cars and many consumer goods. The group also has yttrium, used in lighting and flat screens, as well as ytterbium, which has applications in cancer treatments and earthquake monitoring.
Any action on rare earths would deepen a confrontation that’s roiling markets and damaging global growth. The effect of any restrictions would be significant, and clearly signal that trade tensions are escalating, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Beijing will firmly defend its national interest, and can’t accept its own rare earths supply being used “to crack down on China’s development,” commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at a briefing on Thursday, adding that the nation is willing to meet “the legitimate needs” of the rest of the world.
The elements are also in weaponry, amid a host of applications key to U.S. supply chains. Rare earths are divided into two main categories, heavy and light, corresponding to atomic weight. Heavy rare earths are less common, and important for lasers, sonar and strengthening steel, among other uses.
For heavy rare earths, “China definitely dominates supplies, and if China abandons those exports, I don’t think the U.S. can find alternatives,” SMM’s Hu said. Dysprosium may be one of the more critical elements because of its use in permanent magnets, he said.
It isn’t clear what conditions would need to be met to trigger the restrictions, nor precisely how the curbs would be imposed, according to the people familiar with the plan. Separately, the government is taking account of how the U.S. might object to the measures at the World Trade Organization, they said.
Magnets account for about a quarter of rare earths consumption
A blockade on the supply of rare earth magnets could have a across swathes of the U.S. economy, according to Technology Metals Research LLC. China produces 95% of the world’s output.
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like i said rare earth will provide short term victory for china, but long term probably not , there are still other company mining those material and can processed in the future. Its like huawei situation, it can only use once.
America’s trade war with China has been quietly escalating for years, but this week it took a turn for the disastrous. Huawei, once the rising star of China’s tech industry, has been from US suppliers, leaving the company effectively stunted. China is likely to respond somehow, but with a multitude of options on the table, many in the tech industry are now considering nightmare scenarios.
America’s dependence on Chinese rare earths “an ace in Beijing’s hand.” President Xi Jinping hinted at that possibility when he visited a rare earth facility at the . (As a ministry spokesperson commented with what seemed like a nod and a wink: “It is normal that the top leader investigates relevant industrial policies. I hope everyone can interpret it correctly.”)
Rare earth elements are sometimes described as the “vitamins of chemistry,” as small doses produce powerful salutary effects. A sprinkle of cerium here and a pinch of neodymium there makes TV screens brighter, batteries last longer, and magnets stronger. If China suddenly shut off access to these materials, it would be like rewinding the tech industry back a few decades. And no one wants to ditch their iPhone and go back to a BlackBerry.
Experts in the field, though, are much less concerned about such a chilling scenario. They say that while a restriction on rare earth exports would have some immediate adverse effects, the US and the rest of the world would adapt in the long run. “If China really cuts off supply entirely then there are short term problems,” Tim Worstall, a former rare earth trader and tells The Verge. “But they’re solvable.”
Far from being an ace in the hole, it turns out rare earths are more of a busted flush.
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China currently dominates the world’s supply of rare earth elements.
Credit: USGS
The reasons for this are numerous, and span geography, chemistry, and history. But the most important factor is also the simplest to explain: rare earths just aren’t that rare.
A group of 17 elements, rare earths are what the USGS (United States Geological Survey) describe as “moderately abundant.” That means they’re not as common as oxygen, silicon, and iron, which make up the vast majority of the Earth’s crust, but some are on a par with elements like copper and lead, which we don’t consider exotic or scarce. Significant deposits exist in China, but also Brazil, Canada, Australia, India, and the United States.
The challenge with producing rare earths (and the reason they were given their name) is that they’re rarely found in concentrated lumps. These are chemically sociable elements, happy to bond with other compounds and minerals and tumble about in the dirt. This makes extracting rare earths from common earth like convincing a drunk friend to leave a raucous party: a lengthy and harrowing procedure.
As Eugene Gholz, a rare earth expert and associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame puts it: “Once you take it out of the ground, the big challenge is chemistry not mining; converting the rare earths from rock to separated elements.”
Unlike convincing that drunk friend, though, this process involves a series of acid baths and unhealthy doses of radiation. This is one of the reasons that countries like the US have been more or less happy to cede production of rare earths to China. It’s a messy, dangerous business, so why not let someone else do it? Other factors also helped, including lower labor costs and the existence of Chinese mines that produce rare earths as a byproduct.
China’s sway in the rare earths market is a fairly recent state of affairs. Between the 1960s and the 1980s, the majority of the world’s supply was actually produced in America, from the Mountain Pass mine in California. The mine’s processing plant was shut down in 1998 after problems disposing of toxic waste water, and the whole site was mothballed in 2002.
It’s only from the 1990s onward that China has shouldered the bulk of production, along with the associated environmental costs. (In 2010, the Chinese government estimated that the industry was producing 22.05 million tons of toxic waste each year.) An oft-referenced figure is that China now produces some 95 percent of the world’s rare earths, but Gholz says this statistic is “wildly out of date.” The USGS China’s part as closer to 80 percent.
That’s still a substantial chunk of the world’s supply, though, and with no doubt that these are important commodities, the question is: what happens if China does cut off the US?
Luckily, we have a very good idea of what would happen next because it’s already happened before. Back in 2010, China stopped exports of rare earths to Japan following a diplomatic incident involving a fishing trawler and the disputed Senkaku Islands. Gholz wrote a in 2014, and found that despite China’s intentions, its ban actually had little effect.
Chinese smugglers continued to export rare earths off the books; manufacturers in Japan found ways to use less of the materials; and production in other parts of the world ramped up to compensate. “The world is flexible,” says Gholz. “When you try to restrict supplies to politically influence another country, people don’t give up, they adapt.”
He says that although his report examined the rare earth industry as it was in 2010, the “conclusions are pretty much the same” in 2019.
If China did turn off the rare earth tap, there would be enough private and public stockpiles to supply essential sectors like the military in the short term. And while an embargo could lead to price rises for high-tech goods and dependent materials like oil (rare earths are essential in many refining processes), Gholz says it’s highly unlikely that you would be unable to buy your next smartphone because of a few missing micrograms of yttrium. “I don’t think that’s ever going to happen. It just doesn’t seem plausible,” he says.
Even though a ban on rare earth exports is just speculation at this point, companies have begun to preempt any new Chinese restrictions. American chemical firm Blue Line Corp and Australian rare earth miner Lynas have already proposed in the US, and rare earth stocks around the world have in response to the threat.
In the event of a ban, one of the most important backstops would be America’s Mountain Pass mine. Although the mine was closed after Chinese rare earths drove down prices, the facility is intact and resumed production last January. Recent suggest it’s already supplying one-tenth of the world’s rare earth ores (though not their processing), and in the event of an embargo, it would be possible to bring Mountain Pass back up to speed.
“By far the cheapest and fastest way to bring more material into the market — if there was a disruption — is just sitting there in California,” says Gholz. “It’s not like starting from scratch.”
Worstall agrees: “Producing rare earth concentrate is near trivially simple,” he says. “I, or any other competent person, could produce that from a standing start within six months in any volume required.”
The kicker, both say, is how much that process might cost. Especially as any refining and separation plants built in the US would have to meet far higher environmental standards.
As we’re seeing with Huawei and other casualties of Trump’s trade war, the real question isn’t whether adaptation is possible in the future, it’s how much pain you can stomach in the present.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
All those analyst must be living in dream world like just snap your finger and voila you have a plant running. Typically It take 1 year to design a plant and more time to do the environment assessment. Specially in very strict environment conscious California you have all kind of study , meeting, protest , court challenge, injunction and delay lucky if you can pass it in a year
The state will demand expensive pollution abatement equipment and processes
You forgot that you need license to operate mine good luck getting one in California
If everything goes well it take another year to built the plant the you start debugging and commission another half year goes by
While at the same time money keep flowing in very thin margin business.
There is reason why rare earth industry never take hold in California
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the processing plant are in ASEAN for example malaysia, they can just bypass CA environment and move process plant to some 3rd world. MP did mention their process plant can be up and running in a year. the ore mining will be in aussie/US and other place. beside we are talk about long term solution, short term there will be issue, but its just like Huawei card, once used, its gone.
as for $$$ if china stop rare earth, they can sell it whatever the price they want, government might also subside too. All i'm saying is dont think it as Ace in the hole card like what trump do to huawei.
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
And you think Malaysia will gladly take the dirty ore processing for the US ? Are you living in parallel universe. Malaysia is small country and highly dense population. Even assuming Malaysia is willing they still have to buy process, equipment and chemical, engineering from China. With the new entity list you think China is willing to do that?
I think Huawei case is easier China has large talent pool they graduate 3 million engineer every year. Right now they have excellent university and research lab And a nascent semiconductor equipment manufacturer founded by sea turtle who once worked for the like of Applied Material, lam research etc
What they don't have are client who prefer the american brand because they trust more But now they don't have alternative they just have to buy local product. And false believe in free trade of good and lulled into complacency Now they got "sputnik moment" and rude wake up call
So this ban is actually propelling Chinese semiconductor industry
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Malaysis just an example there are other place, Aussie already have process facilities there. my point is ppl tend to overestimate rare earth card. if rare earth only exist in china sure, its ace in the hole, but other place has it too. short term there will be issue just like huawei, long term country will adapt to it.
The rare earth card is certainly something which can be used. Sure, the US would eventually come up with alternative supply sources, but it would likely take 1-2 years.
Much like China could design its own CPUs in 2 years.
But I think it would be much easier for China to directly hit companies like Qualcomm to be honest. Just make every vendor switch from Qualcomm to either MediaTek or one of the Chinese mainland SoC vendors and you would be killing off one of the major US telecoms companies. Same deal with Apple. China could simply ban the phone from sale there and off goes a third of their revenue.
Does China really need $8 per phone for manufacturing these iDevices? I doubt it. Would not be surprised if the iPhone was a net negative business for China when you consider their sales in there at vastly marked up and inflated prices. Just kill their Chinese sales entirely. Nothing of value would be lost.
Much like China could design its own CPUs in 2 years.
But I think it would be much easier for China to directly hit companies like Qualcomm to be honest. Just make every vendor switch from Qualcomm to either MediaTek or one of the Chinese mainland SoC vendors and you would be killing off one of the major US telecoms companies. Same deal with Apple. China could simply ban the phone from sale there and off goes a third of their revenue.
Does China really need $8 per phone for manufacturing these iDevices? I doubt it. Would not be surprised if the iPhone was a net negative business for China when you consider their sales in there at vastly marked up and inflated prices. Just kill their Chinese sales entirely. Nothing of value would be lost.
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