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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
No but it mitigates the need for more explicit actions.
If by explicit actions you mean reclamation, then I disagree. The SCS is apparently being turned into an SSBN bastion, which of course has nothing to do with middling regional powers. It is also an outlying defensive perimeter against USN intrusion into Chinese littorals, again nothing to do with regional powers. Both of these require an eastern anchor for a triangle-shaped defensive perimeter in the southern reaches of the SCS.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Huangyan/Scarborough Shoal has had zero reclaimation work done..

I am not aware that China has done some massive land reclamation on Huangyan Island (Scarborough) .. when did it start ?
Work has been done at Scarborough...just not the major work was done on the seven major efforts in the SCS. The main reclamation efforts were at:

Chigua Reef (Johnson South Reef)
Dongmen Reef (Hughes Reef)
Huayang Reef (Cuateron Reef)
Nanxun Reef (Gaven Reef)
Yongshu Reef (Fiery Cross Reef)
Zubi Reef (Subi Reef)
Meiji Reef (Mischief Reef)

So, I retract the issue regarding it as one of the major reclamation islands (it was not, though work on it has been done), and also on whether it is just a shoal alone. It has enough land mass and height to not qualify in that instance.

USNI says this about the SHoal/ISland:

"
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It covers an area, including an inner lagoon, of 150 km2 (58 sq mi). The shoal’s highest point, South Rock, measures 1.8 m (5.9 ft) above water during high tide. Located north of it is a channel, approximately 370 m (1,214 ft) wide and 9–11 m (30–36 ft) deep, leading into the lagoon. Several other coral rocks encircle the lagoon, forming a large atoll."

IMHO, however, given what I just quote, the US should not press the12 mile limit on this island. It is clearly disputed by the Philippines, but it is clear as well that China occupies it, and has made a pretty nice place out of it.

The US and the Philippines have their issues with Chinese occupation there. Here's a fairly good article I believe that summarizes the Chinese points regarding how things got to where they are:

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Remember...the Philippines and the US differ from this version of events. I personally believe that the US and the Philippines are both concerned about the potential for that island actually undergoing much more major reclamation efforts and turning it into something like the other seven works...just 50 miles from the Philippines and that is the real issue here

de088-shoal.jpg


.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
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Edit: N/M read the article wrong.

I personally believe that the US and the Philippines are both concerned about the potential for that island actually undergoing much more major reclamation efforts and turning it into something like the other seven works...just 50 miles from the Philippines and that is the real issue here
I think the Philippines aren't nearly as concerned as the US is. China doesn't need Scarborough Shoal to attack the Philippines. It won't ever have a need to attack the Philippines in the first place. China needs Scarborough Shoal to complete its SCS defenses against the US, and that is what has got the US concerned far more than Duterte seems to be.
 
Last edited:

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Edit: N/M read the article wrong.


I think the Philippines aren't nearly as concerned as the US is. China doesn't need Scarborough Shoal to attack the Philippines. It won't ever have a need to attack the Philippines in the first place. China needs Scarborough Shoal to complete its SCS defenses against the US, and that is what has got the US concerned far more than Duterte seems to be.
There is concern in the Philippines...and it is pretty wide spread. But it is not on the front burner right now with that current admin.

And the US really, IMHO, has no need for such heavy concern.

The US, as I said above, should bot have made an issue of Scarborough from a 12 mile perspective. That is not the issue there. The issue is who controls the island and the right now the Chinese occupy it.

But that reef/island will not not amount to much in any major conflict in any case and so the US should not treat it (IMHO) like it would.

China clearly would like to maintain its occupation that close to the Philippines...but in terms of US military strategy, it would not make much of a speed bump if things went really bad...and we do not want things to go bad.

The US, IMHO, is within its rights for FON closer than 12 miles on the man-made/constructed reclamation on top of shoals and reefs that were not naturally that way in the SCS.

But Scarborough is naturally that way so the US, IMHO,should, for the sake of expediency, and since China occupies it, not make that the issue there. State that the US does not agree with the Chinese occupation and then make it an ongoing issue for international arbitration. Do not muddy the 12 mi issue with the 3 mile (or whatever the official distance is for man-made structures on tops of reefs and shoals that do not meet the continental or land mass limits).

Anyhow, as I said to antiterror and plawolf, the major reclamation essentially making an island out of something that did not already meet the limits did not occur there and that was my bad.
 

jobjed

Captain
The US, IMHO, is within its rights for FON closer than 12 miles on the man-made/constructed reclamation on top of shoals and reefs that were not naturally that way in the SCS.

But Scarborough is naturally that way so the US, IMHO,should, for the sake of expediency, and since China occupies it, not make that the issue there. State that the US does not agree with the Chinese occupation and then make it an ongoing issue for international arbitration. Do not muddy the 12 mi issue with the 3 mile (or whatever the official distance is for man-made structures on tops of reefs and shoals that do not meet the continental or land mass limits).

There is no difference in the UNCLOS between territorial boundary surrounding islands and shoals. Both are entitled to 12 nautical miles of sovereign waters. Scarborough shoal isn't entitled to EEZs like an island would but it is entitled to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters.

I don't know where you read 3 nautical miles or whatever but no such boundary exists.

Here's the relevant section on territorial waters, starting page 27.
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Last edited:
Yesterday at 11:42 AM
at first I noticed as it became News of [this] Hour at gazeta.ru (
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):
China vows 'necessary measures' after US warship nears Huangyan Island
Updated 2018-01-20 17:16 GMT+8
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now noticed there's a USN statement inside
China says US warship violated sovereignty near Scarborough
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:

“The United States conducts routine and regular FONOPs, as we have done in the past and will continue to do so in the future,” Lt. Cmdr. Nicole Schwegman, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, said after China’s claim. FONOP is the military’s term for freedom of navigation operations.

She said such operations are “not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements.” Instead they aim to “demonstrate our commitment to uphold the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations under international law.”
 
now noticed
China blasts new US defense strategy
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China has denounced the United States government for its Cold War and zero-sum mentality as reflected in its new national defense strategy.

The 2018 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) unveiled on Friday named China and Russia as top threats to the US, just like the US National Security Strategy did last month.

"We face growing threats from revisionist powers as different as China and Russia are from each other. Nations that do seek to create a world consistent with their authoritarian models," Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Friday.

The unclassified version of the NDS released to the public singled out China and Russia multiple times.

"China is a strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors while militarizing features in the South China Sea," the NDS said. "It is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model -- gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic, and security decisions."

The NDS claimed that China is leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage. "Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department," the NDS said.

A spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in Washington quoted a Chinese saying that one's mentality will determine how they see the world. "If someone is always wearing dark glasses, they will never see a bright world," the spokesman said in a statement to the press on Friday evening.

"Peace and development are the themes of this era, and are also the shared aspirations of mankind. However, if some people look at the world through a Cold War, zero-sum game mindset, then they are destined to see only conflict and confrontation," the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson said China and the US shoulder important responsibilities and have extensive common interests in upholding world peace and stability and promoting global development and prosperity.

"We hope that the US can align itself with the trend of the world and the will of the people, and put the world and China-US relations into the perspective of cooperation," the spokesperson said.

"The NDS appears to be a pastiche of slogans masquerading as a strategy," said Douglas Paal, vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He said many in the Washington establishment will welcome its endorsement of alliances, after Trump's earlier criticisms. "Beyond that, however, what I see is a wish list for ways to regain global dominance without a roadmap to get there," Paal said.

For years, the Pentagonhas used NDS to argue for a big defense budget from the US Congress. The US now spends more on its military than the spending of the next 10 countries combined.

Dov Zakheim, senior fellow at CNA Corporation and former undersecretary of defense from 2001 to 2004, said "if you don't come up with a strategy, you are never going to justify getting the money".

He noted that there is a nuanced difference between China and Russia when they are mentioned in the NDS.

"Russia is pretty much explicitly called an adversary. China, there is still a hedge to it. I think that there is a lot to do with the recognition that we are each other's huge trading partners," he said on Friday afternoon at a conference call organized by the Atlantic Council.

"We have a stake in each other's economy. Therefore, if their economy goes down, that doesn't help us. If our economy goes down, that doesn't help them. So it's a more nuanced relationship," he said.

Zakheim said both China and the US are powerful countries and both want to avoid mistakes. "We need to be as modernized and as capable as possible, just like China feels it has to be," he said.

He described the NDS language with Russia is tougher vis-à-vis China. "As long as China is willing to work with us, you are not going to see us being aggressive with China."

Christine Wormuth, director of Adrienne Arsht Center for Resilience at the Atlantic Council and former undersecretary of defense from 2014 to 2016, described the new strategy as largely a continuity of the various versions under the Obama administration, in particular its major focus on China and Russia as strategic competitors.

She noted that the unclassified version of the NDS emphasizes that the US continues to offer open opportunities for competitors and adversaries for cooperation but from a position of strength.

"I think this administration will seek to find opportunities to cooperate where it makes sense with China and even with Russia, but from a position of strength," she told the conference call on Friday.
just in case: Friday at 6:04 PM
Wednesday at 7:54 PM
now
SECDEF Mattis Unveils New ‘Lethal’ National Defense Strategy Focused on Great Power Competition
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EDIT
Summary of the
National Defense Strategy
of
The United States of America
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plus Friday at 8:14 AM
it's the SDF here so let's face it
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source is BreakingDefense
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duncanidaho

Junior Member
Work has been done at Scarborough...just not the major work was done on the seven major efforts in the SCS. The main reclamation efforts were at:

Chigua Reef (Johnson South Reef)
Dongmen Reef (Hughes Reef)
Huayang Reef (Cuateron Reef)
Nanxun Reef (Gaven Reef)
Yongshu Reef (Fiery Cross Reef)
Zubi Reef (Subi Reef)
Meiji Reef (Mischief Reef)

So, I retract the issue regarding it as one of the major reclamation islands (it was not, though work on it has been done), and also on whether it is just a shoal alone. It has enough land mass and height to not qualify in that instance.

USNI says this about the SHoal/ISland:

"
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It covers an area, including an inner lagoon, of 150 km2 (58 sq mi). The shoal’s highest point, South Rock, measures 1.8 m (5.9 ft) above water during high tide. Located north of it is a channel, approximately 370 m (1,214 ft) wide and 9–11 m (30–36 ft) deep, leading into the lagoon. Several other coral rocks encircle the lagoon, forming a large atoll."

IMHO, however, given what I just quote, the US should not press the12 mile limit on this island. It is clearly disputed by the Philippines, but it is clear as well that China occupies it, and has made a pretty nice place out of it.

The US and the Philippines have their issues with Chinese occupation there. Here's a fairly good article I believe that summarizes the Chinese points regarding how things got to where they are:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Remember...the Philippines and the US differ from this version of events. I personally believe that the US and the Philippines are both concerned about the potential for that island actually undergoing much more major reclamation efforts and turning it into something like the other seven works...just 50 miles from the Philippines and that is the real issue here

View attachment 44970


.


Part of the description and the picture of the island in your link is false, it describes and shows the Duncan island of the Paracel group.
The channel leading into the lagoon is located in the southeast and not north.

Chinese-ships-@-Scarborough.jpg
 
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