The War in the Ukraine

[SolarWarden]

The Russians only confirmed the loss of a single Mi-8 and Su-34. Not two Mi-8s, a Su-34, and a Su-35.

I personally consider it was more likely that it was a system like NASAMS. The Patriot just isn't mobile enough to be there and the damage inflicted on the aircraft is not nearly large enough.

The launcher is very mobile especially the German one.

NASSAM is a very static system.

 

[gelgoog]

NASAMS can be vehicle mounted. Some are even mounted on HMMVs. This is a Norwegian NASAMS 2 for example.



It is basically an AMRAAM on rails. Not that complicated.

 

[baykalov]

They finally finished the deal. Another 1/2 million shells to Ukraine.

WSJ: South Korean Artillery Supply Allows U.S. to Delay Decision on Cluster Munitions for Ukraine

White House considers sending weapons banned by more than 110 nations.

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South Korea is proceeding with the transfer of hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds for Ukraine, a move that U.S. officials said would make Kyiv’s planned offensive against Russian forces effective and allow the White House to delay a fraught decision about whether to supply cluster munitions banned by many countries.

The decision marks a turnabout by Seoul, which had pledged the artillery in November but then balked at providing lethal assistance, following months of U.S. pleas for help as the Pentagon’s own supply of artillery dwindles.

Under the confidential arrangement, South Korea is transferring the shells to the U.S., which in turn has arranged for them to be sent to Ukraine. The White House declined to comment, as did a South Korean government spokesman in Seoul.

The Pentagon declined to say how the shells are being sent or when the transfer is to be completed, but acknowledged that it has been in discussion with Seoul on buying its ammunition.

South Korea’s contribution of rounds has enabled the Biden administration to delay for now a decision on whether to send cluster munitions—the “dual-purpose improved conventional munition” in Pentagon parlance—to the Ukrainians.

“Cluster munitions would provide a missing piece for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to complement their precision medium-range missiles, tanks and troops,” said Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, an independent Washington research organization. “But for those in the administration unready to make that leap, unitary 155 shells would meet some of the same requirements.”

The breakthrough on South Korea’s ammunition supply comes soon after Washington and Seoul issued a joint declaration on security issues during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to Washington last month, another move to strengthen ties.

Washington first approached the Seoul government last year and asked it to provide artillery for the war in Ukraine. The two sides worked out an initial confidential agreement, but the South Koreans got cold feet after it emerged in the media, according to U.S. officials.

The U.S. has provided more than two million 155mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022, and its remaining supply has begun to dry up, forcing the U.S. on a global hunt for ammunition. The Pentagon has raided its own stocks of artillery shells at sites in Germany, Israel, Kuwait and South Korea to make up for the shortfall, U.S. and congressional officials said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has large supplies of cluster munitions, from which the Pentagon could draw if its stocks of regular 155mm shells were to run low, or to augment South Korea’s combat power.

Ukraine has asked for cluster munitions and senior Republican lawmakers have pressed the administration to provide them. U.S. military and defense officials have been sympathetic to Ukraine’s request.

But officials in the White House and State Department have resisted, citing the international opprobrium long attached to the use of cluster munitions.

Fired from an artillery gun or rocket launcher, cluster munitions disperse bomblets that can fall on and kill multiple targets at once.
“It’s very effective against mixed targets, of personnel and equipment, especially when those targets are gathered into dense formations,” Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander, told Congress last month.

 

[gelgoog]

If the US uses cluster munitions in Ukraine, they will be causing huge trouble for themselves in the future. Russia, much like the US, never signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions. So they also have cluster munitions. And they have much more rocket artillery capability than Ukraine by volume like I just said to deliver them. I also have a pretty good idea on who has the worse medical facilities in the field from what I have seen thus far and my knowledge of Ukraine's lackluster medical system. Their medical system was terrible even back in peace time. If they start using cluster munitions the amount of casualties will become more lopsided towards heavy injured and dead rather than lightly wounded. It will also impact civilians since the bomblets can fail to detonate and be spread around basically everywhere.

Contrary to what the US thinks, it would be advantageous for Russia if they could use cluster munitions against NATO in a conventional conflict. And they are opening up the door to that.

 

[SolarWarden]

NASAMS can be vehicle mounted. Some are even mounted on HMMVs. This is a Norwegian NASAMS 2 for example.

View attachment 113228

It is basically an AMRAAM on rails. Not that complicated.

Which ones are the ones Ukraine got? We know Ukraine aint getting the latest and the SU34 that got shot down in Bryansk was at least 40+kms inside Russia out of range of ground launched aim-120.

 

[gelgoog]

NASAMS has 50 km range with AMRAAM-ER. But I never heard of those being delivered to Ukraine.

 

[Tam]

Hmm I don't know about this claim. Maybe it's the way the slow motion makes the missile look but the missile that hit the Mi-8 looked small or at least much smaller than a PAC2

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661345904467533827

How does the "Russian affiliate" even know? If this is true that would mean a PAC 2 launcher carrying 4 missiles was able to be deployed much further distance from the radar than the publicized 10-15 kms.

The Su-34 and the Mi-8 are the only confirmed kills. 'Common knowledge' among Russian commentators, even Prigozhyn himself, says it's friendly fire. But there are some who can't accept that "we can't be that incompetent" that it's friendly fire and hatch the story that there was an enemy SAM waiting for them. I am more likely to think it's friendly fire because this happens all the time --- the Ukrainians shot their own multimillion dollar drone and the decorated commander of an Su-25 squadron stationed near Kiev. In the Russian case, there is heightened alertness following the Storm Shadow attacks. The Mi-8 could be shot down by a Ukrainian MANPADS but the Su-34 is more likely friendly fire from a Russian air defense system.

 

[baykalov]

From Russian Telegram channels:

Governor Gladkov said that 7 territorial defense battalions with a total strength of 3,000 people had been created in the Belgorod Region.

A significant problem is the lack of decisions on the legal status of these battalions, which prevents the issuance of the necessary weapons to volunteers.

The region is considering legal options for arming them, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said during a live broadcast on VKontakte.

"We have them (self-defense units). Almost 3,000 people, 7 battalions along the border. They have been training since November last year. Already combat-ready units, dressed in uniform, equipment provided. The only thing that, in accordance with current legislation, the issue has not yet been resolved with weapons.

When invading the territory of the Grayvoron District, enemy saboteurs did not have to involve self-defense forces. There were enough military personnel, and this issue did not need to be resolved, but we are now looking for legal grounds (to arm self-defense) in order to repulse the enemy if necessary,"- Belgorod Governor V. Gladkov

 

[gelgoog]

It would hardly be the first time that the Russians shot one of their own aircraft down in this conflict either. They shot a brand new Su-34NVO down for example. So, yes, that is also possible.

 

[Phead128]

If the US uses cluster munitions in Ukraine, they will be causing huge trouble for themselves in the future. Russia, much like the US, never signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions. So they also have cluster munitions. And they have much more rocket artillery capability than Ukraine by volume like I just said to deliver them. I also have a pretty good idea on who has the worse medical facilities in the field from what I have seen thus far and my knowledge of Ukraine's lackluster medical system. Their medical system was terrible even back in peace time. If they start using cluster munitions the amount of casualties will become more lopsided towards heavy injured and dead rather than lightly wounded. It will also impact civilians since the bomblets can fail to detonate and be spread around basically everywhere.

Contrary to what the US thinks, it would be advantageous for Russia if they could use cluster munitions against NATO in a conventional conflict. And they are opening up the door to that.

Does Russia currently use cluster munitions in Ukraine? I saw some reports from

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(not really trustworthy) claiming it was used in Kharkiv offensive, but

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is not really trustworthy and known to fabricate lies.

Also, if Russia has an overwhelming advantage in firepower and cluster munitions, why can't it use it in greater frequency to quickly win the war? Does it fear international condemnation or conserving it's stockpile in a future hypothetical matchup against NATO?