Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

[Ringsword]

97% of antibiotic in US comes from China. Now some idiot congressman said they want a war with China.

Hope he steps on a rusty nail and needs those China antibiotics-hahaha
And I believe when the Middle East blows up the China can move -Timing is everything and a longer Russo-Euro war will deplete NATO mil stocks and even now western economies are barely holding on-interest and inflation wise and China needs Russia to win because the next target of a victorious west is China.

 

[Brainsuker]

Is the PLA really conventionally superior though? In some domains (AD, MLRS, BM), sure. But in other domains (airforce, force projection, submarines) the West and its allies are still equal if not superior. I foresee as they catch up in equipment the West might begin moving to a blockade strategy rather than risk confronting PLA in its home turf, blocking commercial shipping through strait of Malacca in an attempt to economically strangle China, in which the AUKUS submarines will come in handy.

Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.

I think it is the core idea of Belt and Road Initiative to avoid the Malacca Blockade that the United States side has planning. This program have two purposes. 1st, to build a land road from China to Europe and Africa so the blockade won't harm China's trade so much. And the sea pearl of trade route means that the blockade won't only harm China, but also many countries inside the BRI project. Because if this initiative get disturbed, not only China will get harmed economically, but also the ASEAN countries who live around the Malacca Strait. So it will give the countries around Malacca strait a huge reason that they have to prevent the blockade at all cost.

I think China should also think and plan, that if the blockade is really happen, it won't be only them that will be harmed economically, but also everyone in this world. With that in mind, China should give Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia some signal that it is in their core interest to prevent so that US and their allies blockade won't ever happen in Malacca strait. Because it means that the blockade will also kill those countries economy immediately. This is a smaller kind of MAD that China should really begin to plan and develop, after BRI.

 

[Brainsuker]

I've noticed that during Russian offensives, despite the overwhelming preparatory artillery fire, Ukrainian defenders have not been suppressed, much less destroyed.(It's a good, relatively unbiased channel, it tell of both success and failures of Russian forces in equal measures)

It's easy to miss, but the video mentioned underground bunkers and positions. Which I believe might be the most under appreciate part of the war(or any war in general) and would explain the mystifying ability for Ukrainian positions to survive artillery barrages.

It reminds me alot of the Korean War, the Anglo Coalition forces have an absolute superiority in long range firepower yet was unable to push even an inch once the front stabilised because of the extensive overground fortification and underground shelters/tunnels.

PVA soldiers would descend into their underground fortifications during bombardments and then emerge to stop the Anglo coalition dead in their tracks. IE: Battle of Shanggangling/Triangle Hill

I hope the PLA have not neglected the tradition of building earthworks. Those with firepower superiority have a tendency of overestimating their effects, when in reality, it usually produced less than the desired result. Desert Storm/Iraqi Freedumb are the few instances where fire superiority have produced the desired result.

I think, this kind of situation is very hard to prepared or anticipated. Because the tactical decision in both operation and tactical level depend entirely to the soldiers in the battlefield. No countries can prepare their soldiers to handle everything. This situation is similar to a football match between... let say, Russia vs Ukraine. When both teams already enter and play in the field, everything is depend on their skill, experience and determination. What the high command can do is only providing them with information, tools, and supports.

I can also said that attacking a fortress like that is a very complicated problem. Because everything depend on the leadership in the field. If the commander is ignorant, even if you give them the best Artillery support in this world, they won't help so much. Even if the Russian Commander is a brilliant strategist, he still will face difficult situation like what the Russian Marine face.

Remember history, even a general with the level of Zhuge Liang and Li She Min faced similar difficulty in one of their campaign. Zhuge Liang failed in taking a small town with only 3000 garrisons in one of his northern campaign; Li Shemin had difficulty taking a small Koguryo Fortress in his campaign to Korea.

 

[Serb]

If the amount of missiles in the stockpile is tens of thousands, and hundreds are expended every day, then yeah, I don't think it'll make a huge difference.

Unless of course, like I said, the war lasts many years. Ammo expenditure is likely to vastly outpace production capacity.

You don't get it, US spends entirety of its missiles in 1st week of Taiwan scenario (those missiles that weren't already gifted to Ukraine).

Wartime production not only matters, but it’s one of the fundamental things that matters.

US can't compare to China in any way shape or form, from missiles, rockets, shells, other ammo, to large aircraft in production.

Ukraine war showed us how western wartime weaponry manufacturing is a joke, and how we all understimate just how much weaponry needs to be used in modern wars on daily.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I don’t think US is weak willed, the blood and money spent on (mis)adventures like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan say otherwise.

Same thoughts.

As much as I despise Imperial Japan and what they did to the innocent populace in China, Korea and across the Asia Pacific, there are many important lessons to learn from - One of which is never underestimate your enemy.

The IJA thought they can easily wipe the floor with the Soviets - That's why they got a bloodied nose in Khalkin Gol.
The IJN thought they can easily sweep Western forces out of the IndoPac - That's why they got pretty much all of their warships resting at the bottom of the Pacific + two suns.
The IJAAF and IJNAF thought that they could easily rule the skies over their empire - That's why their fighters got turned into manned missiles in the end.

Of course, we know that the dynamics and scenarios involved are very different today than it was 80 years ago. But the message remains the same - China must never underestimate the US and her "allies", China must be ready to toil and bear with the hardships and challenges of war, and China must be prepared to shed lots of tears, sweat and blood for many years in order to achieve the ultimate goal of Chinese national and civilizational rejuvenation.

 

[Serb]

United States today has blacks, whites, mulattos, Hispanics, liberals, conservatives, communists, capitalists, republicans, democrats, 50 states, most weapons per citizen on the planet, and one of the highest crime rates in the world, 30% of them think it's okay to raise arms against the government, in various states 50% of the population supported secession at some point in their lives, 70% members of both Democrats and Republicans think that members of the other party are not good people and avoid each other at a social gathering. United States today is tens of times more divided than it was in WW2 for example. And there was no internet and social media then.

I think it's safe to say that they are not ready to face the 500% per month hyperinflation, and possible massive conscription that a war with China could bring. It's fundamentally different from Iraq, and Afghanistan, which they don't even know how to show on a map, and that had practically no importance on the world economy.

If the US government and its elites don't finish that war in Taiwan victoriously before even the slightest inflation kicks in, that's maybe under 2 months at most, and force China to capitulate and the trade to return to normal, there would be no more war. American population with start social unrest and maybe even civil wars and secessions.

You think that the US is a normal country, but it's not a normal country. It's a place where they hate each other more than they hate China. They hate each other more than all African tribal states. Only money keeps them altogether from falling. 2.5 trillion of the freshly printed dollar the US government needs to give in social spending per year in order to keep them happy. However, if the standard of living starts falling down, expect them to be the ones to read of American elites and their government themselves.

I understand your points, however, I followed the deteriorating social situation in the US for years now, and I personally think that they are mentally miles ahead from being ready to face the factory of the world of China just because of some imaginary concept of the past like American imperialism. They hate America today themselves. Their elites are living in the past when that was a united, patriotic, strong, country.

 

[Biscuits]

Same thoughts.

As much as I despise Imperial Japan and what they did to the innocent populace in China, Korea and across the Asia Pacific, there are many important lessons to learn from - One of which is never underestimate your enemy.

The IJA thought they can easily wipe the floor with the Soviets - That's why they got a bloodied nose in Khalkin Gol.
The IJN thought they can easily sweep Western forces out of the IndoPac - That's why they got pretty much all of their warships resting at the bottom of the Pacific + two suns.
The IJAAF and IJNAF thought that they could easily rule the skies over their empire - That's why their fighters got turned into manned missiles in the end.

Of course, we know that the dynamics and scenarios involved are very different today than it was 80 years ago. But the message remains the same - China must never underestimate the US and her "allies", China must be ready to toil and bear with the hardships and challenges of war, and China must be prepared to shed lots of tears, sweat and blood for many years in order to achieve the ultimate goal of Chinese national and civilizational rejuvenation.

Honestly speaking, since both forces have rough parity on paper, which force is more likely to underestimate the other?

Despite how American state propaganda fully embraced the dubiously truthful at best line that Russia expected to win in Ukraine in 3 days, America has yet learnt absolutely nothing from the failure of Russia to win in 3 days.

The nationalists among America seem to believe that they can just send a smaller attack, let the rebels take the brunt of the casualties, and China will surrender in a week while only using the ETC. Their thinking is ironically the exact same as the one they're mocking Russians for supposedly having.

Many elements within the Japanese military were in fact not overconfident. They were realistic about being unable to win either in the Chinese or American direction, trying to hope for quick tactical victories to buy time against an overall unfavorable situation.

However, it was the politicians, the Imperial Rule Association, that insisted on war, because they were completely brainwashed by ideological delusions.

America is flirting with a very dangerous line, because many of their politicians have taken up similar stances as the IRAA. Instead of making decisions based on facts, they make interpretations based on ideology first and then twist facts to fit their ideology. And like those values from Imperial Japan, their ideologies are founded in militarism, nationalism and expansionism.

So therefore, despite whatever professionalism the American military or intelligence units have in realising it is not smart to directly war with a larger economic and industrial power that has the resources of most of Eurasia at its disposal, it may not matter because many prominent American politicians unironically believe they have a divine right to rule the world.

 

[zhangjim]

The IJA thought they can easily wipe the floor with the Soviets - That's why they got a bloodied nose in Khalkin Gol.
The IJN thought they can easily sweep Western forces out of the IndoPac - That's why they got pretty much all of their warships resting at the bottom of the Pacific + two suns.
The IJAAF and IJNAF thought that they could easily rule the skies over their empire - That's why their fighters got turned into manned missiles in the end.

Japan's problem is not to underestimate its rivals, but the chaotic internal political environment. It has become Japan's main strategy to "attack and hit the opponent heavily, and then sign a favorable agreement". However, during the Russo-Japanese War, this strategy had not reached the expected goal. The radicals in Japan are not satisfied with the outcome of the negotiation: why didn't we get war reparations? Can't we continue to fight?

"Defeating the white people" aggravated Japan's conceit. The failure of the Mongol invasion made the Japanese have the wrong idea of "their country is protected by God", so that when Perry's fleet arrived, the Japanese prayed for the "Kamikaze" to come again.
The victory of the two successive wars made Japan feel proud of its own victory, so that the whole manic society refused to accept defeatism.

After the 918 incident, the Japanese army has been completely out of control. Several officers can stir up military conflicts at will, and then expand into wars that the whole country has to participate in, and can also force the government to recognize their "achievements".

The senior management of IJN is well aware of the power gap between Japan and the United States, but the entire Japanese society cannot tolerate the voices of opposition. Crazy soldiers will eliminate all those they dislike.


The whole of Japan has lost its normal decision-making ability, leaving only "conquering others" and "being conquered by others is unacceptable" in their minds. Their thinking is still the Japanese samurai in the "Sengoku Jidai": expand in order to obtain more fiefs, and if they fail, the whole family will commit suicide.

Speculationism occupy the main decision-making process of the Japanese, Japan is an extreme case, because you can hardly find such a crazy and chaotic irrational regime.

 

[Sardaukar20]

The West is currently not willing to eat into their domestic civilian industrial capacity to build military equipment. They don't see Russia-Ukraine as existential as such the stuff they are giving Ukraine are mostly ancient. In the case of basically WW3 they will all go into war economy.

The West is giving mostly ancient weapons to Ukraine you say? Do you consider Javelin, NLAW, Stinger, HIMARS, Leopard II, Challenger II, M777, M109, etc as ancient? They don't look that ancient to me.

Well the Europeans seem to consider the Russia-Ukraine war as an existential crisis for Europe, akin to WW3 itself. The Europeans in general, don't seem to mind America blowing up the Nord Stream. They don't mind their industries closing down, moving to the US and elsewhere. Many have even volunteered to fight and die in Ukraine. As far as I can tell from the Europeans, they are doubling down on defeating Russia in Ukraine. It's looks to be quite personal for a lot of them.


The West, as far as I'm concerned, cannot mobilize into a proper war economy like in WWII. Their general populace could not accept any further hardship. Especially if they're government-mandated. Just look at how they behaved with Covid. Even today, there are Europeans on the streets, protesting their economic hardships. Europe today, is miles away from implenting a war economy. Imagine a war with China, where the world's supply chain as we know it is essentially FUBARed. There will be scarcity in all sorts of stuff that the average Westerner takes for granted. Can the average Americans and Western Europeans today go back to WW2-era rationing?

When it comes down to it the West can build plenty of equipment, f-35 production is still substantially higher than j-20 for example. The weapons that will be used in a confrontation in the Pacific is not those that you can simply scale up, it will take years and years just to build capacity even during peace time, in the domains that are most important for a confrontation away from home needed for long war (subs, aircraft, force projection) China still trails the US. Once the shooting starts I doubt the US will leave coastal ship building intact.

The F-35 production run is much further down the road than the J-20. Plus, there is that big international order book for Lockheed Martin to fulfil. The J-20 production run is not there yet, but China has massive capacity for ramping it up. China can buy the J-20 cheaper than the US can buy F-35s. Because Chengdu Aerospace Corporation is state-owned, while Lockheed Martin is a private corporation that co-owns the US government.

The US appears to be pretty much in a war economy already. What little heavy industrial capacity in the US is now focused heavily into its MIC. The US does not produce railcars like before, but can produce new military vehicles. The US shipyards don't build large commercial vessels anymore. But it can build aircraft carriers. There is not much more potential for the US to ramp up military production. Not like the potential that China has.

The US struggled to ramp up production for even 155mm artillery ammunition. The Pentagon wants to ramp up production, but it needs to give more money to the MIC. Because the defence corporations won't invest their own money into building up their own capacity. Why not just lobby the US government for that money instead. In addition, the defence corporations have, and will massively markup their products, because they love big fat profits. The US defence spending will go through the roof. This is not the FDR era. The American economy is extremely unhealthy. Its capacity for massive deficit spending is not the same as in WW2.

China can easily outproduce the US when it transitions into a war economy. The way China mobilized so rapidly during the early days of Covid gives us a hint as to how readily it could transition in times of war.

China's war doctrine is not about power projection into the far seas, but to the near seas. They don't need to outproduce the US in SSNs, bombers, and CVNs. They can focus on the cheaper stuff, like missiles, drones, fighters, SSKs, etc.

Yes the US forces near China can attack the Chinese shipyards. That is why China extended its A2AD coverage relatively far away from its coasts. Extending into the SCS, ECS, and Taiwan. The US and its allies will have to go through the island bases, PLAN, PLAAF, PLARF, and PLA shore defences just to get to the Chinese shipyards. That's gonna cost a lot of missiles, drones, aircrafts, ships, and skilled personnel. And even if the Chinese shipyards are struck, its not gonna take too long for China in wartime mode to rebuild and repair them. China's production sites for munitions, SSK, fighter and land systems are located much deeper inland. Those are even harder to reach. China is a vast, continental country that also happens to have a modern military. The US is gonna exhaust it's long-ranged precision munitions in the Pacific theater much quicker than it thinks.

What I'm trying to get at is that the US can target Chinese ship building easily because Korea and Japan is so close, but for China to target the collective West is extremely difficult because they are all over the world.

It doesn't matter that the US can strike China's shipyards, while China cannot do the same to US shipyards. China's warplan is primarily defensive. Its main objective is to defeat the enemy's threat of power projection near its territory and to keep China safe. Preferably at greater cost to the enemy. That is the priority. China can think about striking US shipyards later, when it is able do so.

 

[Brainsuker]

The F-35 production run is much further down the road than the J-20. Plus, there is that big international order book for Lockheed Martin to fulfil. The J-20 production run is not there yet, but China has massive capacity for ramping it up. China can buy the J-20 cheaper than the US can buy F-35s. Because Chengdu Aerospace Corporation is state-owned, while Lockheed Martin is a private corporation that co-owns the US government.

I think the reason why F-35 production can outpace J-20 is because F-35 is the only new Jet Fighter production for the United States. They focus their budget entirely to ramp up F-35 production. You shouldn't only look at their Jet Fighter production. But also their navy etc. Because at the moment, USA doesn't produce anything massive beside F-35 and some missiles. They may produce several Gerald N Ford class Carrier, but the production seems relaxed.

While China don't focus their procurement budget entirely to procure J-20. Their budget is basically split into J-16, warships, etc. That's why their J-20 looks slower than the United States.