Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

[HighGround]

See this thread for deeper explanation of what I meant.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523791050313433088

Of all technology offered by the west, starlink is doing some heavy lifting by providing high bandwidth communication across the entire battlespace using minimal/extremely hard to disrupt hardware.

Once recon spots a concentration of units they can simply put the information into software after which nearby artillery units can pick it for a fire mission. This achieves an short kill chain regardless the source of Intel. With drone footage they can also provide live feedback.

That's super interesting. I knew that Starlink was pretty vital to Ukraine and is probably the most important system in the conflict, but that really puts it over the top. That's pretty neat software they got for artillery targetting. Combined with NATO ISR capabilities, it's an incredibly potent battle management tool.

Thanks for the share.

 

[Serb]

This is clearly yet another a propaganda piece from the NHK. Taiwan is just not Ukraine. There are so many differing factors. First, it is much easier to blockade Taiwan than Ukraine. Plus, the the average Taiwanese morale for war is much weaker than the average Ukrainians. The Taiwanese have never experienced actual war and hardship in recent memory. They do not yet have the extreme fascist haters, or the battle-hardened veterans. War is hell, so most Taiwanese will find out very quickly, that war with the PLA will be no fun. If the US and Japan directly intervenes, then the war is gonna become so much worse for the Taiwanese. I think it is actually easier to compel the Taiwanese into peace negotiations than the Ukrainians. Whatever we think about the Wanwanese, they are still not comparable to the Ukrainian Nazis in their appetite for bloodshed.

This is a great take. Anyways, what do you think is the chance for US and Japan to interfere against the blockade? I would say 100% US, and 50% Japan.

 

[Sardaukar20]

This is a great take. Anyways, what do you think is the chance for US and Japan to interfere against the blockade? I would say 100% US, and 50% Japan.

I just really don't know. But looking at the US war mongers, I think that they would view this as their opportunity to finally do something to bring China down. If the US acts, the current Japanese Nippon Kaigi government will follow. The Japanese people might not agree, but we cannot assume that they can stop their govt.

What I think the Americans might want to do first is to not directly shoot at China, but to lead a sizable naval force with multiple allies to confront China. A show of strength to compel it to open it's blockade of Taiwan. They'll try to test China's resolve first. See if China would shoot at any supply vessel coming to dock at Taiwan. Kinda like a reverse Cuban missile crisis. They will want China to fire the first shot at them.

Or maybe the US and Japan might just want to pull off a Pearl Harbour style surprise attack on the PLAN.

Whatever they want to do, there is time for China to see their naval force building up near it's waters.

Whatever China wants to do, it must take the initiative. Get the enemy react, not react to the enemy. Take control and dictate the battlefield to the enemy. During the early stages of the Trade war, HK riots, and Covid, China was reacting to US moves. Instead, China should follow the example of how it moved against India at Aksai Chin in 2020.

 

[zhangjim]

This is a great take. Anyways, what do you think is the chance for US and Japan to interfere against the blockade? I would say 100% US, and 50% Japan.

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In 1996, the Japanese leadership seriously considered the issue of military intervention.
The decision-making process is very strange. Almost all Japanese intelligence agencies are preparing for the worst - or exaggerating the seriousness of the situation.
Although the planned deployment of troops was intended only to evacuate expatriates, but we don't know whether Japan will take more radical action.

However, we can see that the hawks in Japan do not have much scruples about military intervention.
Add: From the article, we can see that the Japanese intelligence department seems to have a bad tendency of deliberately misleading decision-making.

 

[theorlonator]

Can anyone take a stab at explaining this? Maybe this is the wrong thread for it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635412366472138758

 

[HumanHDMI]

Can anyone take a stab at explaining this? Maybe this is the wrong thread for it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635412366472138758

Did you see his next tweet?

 

[theorlonator]

Did you see his next tweet?

Sorry I meant about the overwhelming superiority, not about the terms of conventional arms control.

 

[tankphobia]

Can anyone take a stab at explaining this? Maybe this is the wrong thread for it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635412366472138758

Is the PLA really conventionally superior though? In some domains (AD, MLRS, BM), sure. But in other domains (airforce, force projection, submarines) the West and its allies are still equal if not superior. I foresee as they catch up in equipment the West might begin moving to a blockade strategy rather than risk confronting PLA in its home turf, blocking commercial shipping through strait of Malacca in an attempt to economically strangle China, in which the AUKUS submarines will come in handy.

Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.

 

[HighGround]

Is the PLA really conventionally superior though? In some domains (AD, MLRS, BM), sure. But in other domains (airforce, force projection, submarines) the West and its allies are still equal if not superior. I foresee as they catch up in equipment the West might begin moving to a blockade strategy rather than risk confronting PLA in its home turf, blocking commercial shipping through strait of Malacca in an attempt to economically strangle China, in which the AUKUS submarines will come in handy.

Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.

I can see how the argument that "PLA is conventionally superior" can be made if you are specifically looking at the Pacific Theatre.

 

[tankphobia]

I can see how the argument that "PLA is conventionally superior" can be made if you are specifically looking at the Pacific Theatre.

I don't think it can be said that China and the US can 'win' right now if conflict were to break out, they will both just not lose so I don't think conventionally superiority means much in this context if it cannot guarantee victory.