Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Brainsuker

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I think the reason why F-35 production can outpace J-20 is because F-35 is the only new Jet Fighter production for the United States. They focus their budget entirely to ramp up F-35 production. You shouldn't only look at their Jet Fighter production. But also their navy etc. Because at the moment, USA doesn't produce anything massive beside F-35 and some missiles. They may produce several Gerald N Ford class Carrier, but the production seems relaxed.

While China don't focus their procurement budget entirely to procure J-20. Their budget is basically split into J-16, warships, etc. That's why their J-20 looks slower than the United States.
This is basically the different between US and China right now. For US, they don't have to split their budget to procure several product. For example, the procurement of F-35 is basically a bad news for industries beside Lockhead Martin. Because of that choice, Boeing, etc have to eat bitter pills and wait for another chance to get new order. That's why, their number of industries are decreasing. For example, McDonnell Douglas who made F-15 now have to merge with Boeing.

It is different to China, who split their budget to both Chengdu and Xiangyang, also Xian, etc. Just because they want those industries to keep exist. And that's why the number of procurement of Chengdu J-20 can't be that many; simply because they have to share their cake to Xiangyang and others.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
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I expect the Shenyang J-16 production to be eventually replaced with a twin-seat Chengdu J-20 variant. And Shenyang will likely switch focus to J-31 production.

I still expect China to eventually develop a single engine stealth fighter aircraft design to replace the J-10.
 

CMP

Senior Member
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This is basically the different between US and China right now. For US, they don't have to split their budget to procure several product. For example, the procurement of F-35 is basically a bad news for industries beside Lockhead Martin. Because of that choice, Boeing, etc have to eat bitter pills and wait for another chance to get new order. That's why, their number of industries are decreasing. For example, McDonnell Douglas who made F-15 now have to merge with Boeing.

It is different to China, who split their budget to both Chengdu and Xiangyang, also Xian, etc. Just because they want those industries to keep exist. And that's why the number of procurement of Chengdu J-20 can't be that many; simply because they have to share their cake to Xiangyang and others.
China is using a superior military industrial development strategy. You want to keep all the domestic MIC competitors thriving and competing with each other. Monopolies are just as bad for domestic MIC as it is for any other industry.
 

tankphobia

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The West is giving mostly ancient weapons to Ukraine you say? Do you consider Javelin, NLAW, Stinger, HIMARS, Leopard II, Challenger II, M777, M109, etc as ancient? They don't look that ancient to me.
Yeah all of those weapons are ancient and developed quite a while ago , same age as most Russian gear basically. The only high profile new equipment the west provided is MRAP, NLAW and UAV systems, note that age does not mean they are incapable, ultimately the west is still in a fully peace time economy.
Well the Europeans seem to consider the Russia-Ukraine war as an existential crisis for Europe, akin to WW3 itself. The Europeans in general, don't seem to mind America blowing up the Nord Stream. They don't mind their industries closing down, moving to the US and elsewhere. Many have even volunteered to fight and die in Ukraine. As far as I can tell from the Europeans, they are doubling down on defeating Russia in Ukraine. It's looks to be quite personal for a lot of them.
I keep seeing people repeating that Europe is getting deindustrialised but there is little evidence of it, in fact this is almost just as bad as people repeating that Russia will economically collapse any minute now. The truth is that most nations are more resilient then naysayers on the internet realise.
The West, as far as I'm concerned, cannot mobilize into a proper war economy like in WWII. Their general populace could not accept any further hardship. Especially if they're government-mandated. Just look at how they behaved with Covid. Even today, there are Europeans on the streets, protesting their economic hardships. Europe today, is miles away from implenting a war economy. Imagine a war with China, where the world's supply chain as we know it is essentially FUBARed. There will be scarcity in all sorts of stuff that the average Westerner takes for granted. Can the average Americans and Western Europeans today go back to WW2-era rationing?
Can new generation Chinese used to the new prosperity suddenly go massively backwards in standards of living in the case of AR, if so why can't the West?

Again and again people keep assuming that people in the west are some how balloon that pop at the sight of a slight breeze and extrapolating the behaviour of a very minor subset of the population to entire countries, look at the level of support for the war in Iraq post 9-11. The vast majority supported the war despite initially expecting tens of thousands of casualties.

Another point is that the US government has never cared about public opinion when going to war, not in Korea, not in Vietnam and not in the Middle East, why would you think the public will have any sway when the hegemony is at risk?
The F-35 production run is much further down the road than the J-20. Plus, there is that big international order book for Lockheed Martin to fulfil. The J-20 production run is not there yet, but China has massive capacity for ramping it up. China can buy the J-20 cheaper than the US can buy F-35s. Because Chengdu Aerospace Corporation is state-owned, while Lockheed Martin is a private corporation that co-owns the US government.

The US appears to be pretty much in a war economy already. What little heavy industrial capacity in the US is now focused heavily into its MIC. The US does not produce railcars like before, but can produce new military vehicles. The US shipyards don't build large commercial vessels anymore. But it can build aircraft carriers. There is not much more potential for the US to ramp up military production. Not like the potential that China has.
What does cheaper mean in this context? In a contest of nations the monetary value of system means little, only the numbers. Tha absolute number of planes, submarines and even large UAVs (reaper/predator) available to the US is still greater than Chinese stocks.

In terms of industrial capacity of course China is going to be greater, but the gap is not so insurmountable that anyone can draw conclusions like 10x out produce the West or that the US will drown in missiles.

Interestingly the Qinghai-tibet railway use all American manufactured rolling stock of Diesel electric rail cars.
 

Chevalier

Senior Member
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Another point is that the US government has never cared about public opinion when going to war, not in Korea, not in Vietnam and not in the Middle East, why would you think the public will have any sway when the hegemony is at risk?
A long drawn out war in the manner of the war of attrition that we're seeing in Ukraine could well mean unrest and civil revolt in the US and i draw from the example of Tsarist Russia. When WW1 started, there was an outpouring of nationalistic fervour that quickly died as the war dragged on and allowed German intelligence services to send Lenin in to take advantage of simmering social unrest in Russia at the time. Similarly in the US, there are barely contained spasms of violence between racial and other groups that could devolve into rebellion if enough stress is applied to the US.
 

Serb

Junior Member
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I keep seeing people repeating that Europe is getting deindustrialised but there is little evidence of it, in fact this is almost just as bad as people repeating that Russia will economically collapse any minute now. The truth is that most nations are more resilient then naysayers on the internet realise.

You are funny, 10% inflation in the EU and 0.2% GDP growth in Germany for 2023, and it's resilient to you?

Even Russia will grow more than Germany in 2023.

Do you want 15 examples of mega-corporations that started relocating to either China or the US, because of the cost of energy?

Just look at the manufacturing indexes of the EU, and you will see it is industrialized. You have no idea about anything.


Can new generation Chinese used to the new prosperity suddenly go massively backwards in standards of living in the case of AR, if so why can't the West?


Hahahahhahaha, maybe because the Chinese are fighting for their own territory, the 23rd province of Taiwan, 100km from the mainland, while the US would be fighting 10000km against another superpower for preserving hegemony.

I already gave you polls that show 50% of Americans consider secession, 30% think it's okay to pick arms against the government, how they hate one another, Biden has a 20-30% approval rating, etc... They are not ready for that kind of war mentally.


Another point is that the US government has never cared about public opinion when going to war, not in Korea, not in Vietnam and not in the Middle East, why would you think the public will have any sway when the hegemony is at risk?

You are not an economist, stop embarrassing yourself, how can you even compare those instances to China?

It would be like the US went against the SSSR, but China has 2 times relative GDP than the SSSR, 30% of world manufacturing output, and is the factory of the world.

Meanwhile, 80% of the US economy (GDP) is consumption or buying Chinese resold goods. Stopping that = 500% hyperinflation.

What does cheaper mean in this context? In a contest of nations the monetary value of system means little, only the numbers. Tha absolute number of planes, submarines and even large UAVs (reaper/predator) available to the US is still greater than Chinese stocks.

In terms of industrial capacity of course China is going to be greater, but the gap is not so insurmountable that anyone can draw conclusions like 10x out produce the West or that the US will drown in missiles.

US "stocks" are done in the first few weeks, from them it's production that matters.

And the US is a joke in any kind of production in 2023.

They lived off printing money out of thin air and buying Chinese goods for decades.

They have 10 times fewer factories than during the Cold War.

One Chinese shipyard is bigger than all of its combined.

They have a nearly 1 trillion trade deficit, mostly with China.

Today they don't produce shit, and what they produce, they use Chinese parts.
 
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Biscuits

Major
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Yeah all of those weapons are ancient and developed quite a while ago , same age as most Russian gear basically. The only high profile new equipment the west provided is MRAP, NLAW and UAV systems, note that age does not mean they are incapable, ultimately the west is still in a fully peace time economy.

I keep seeing people repeating that Europe is getting deindustrialised but there is little evidence of it, in fact this is almost just as bad as people repeating that Russia will economically collapse any minute now. The truth is that most nations are more resilient then naysayers on the internet realise.

Can new generation Chinese used to the new prosperity suddenly go massively backwards in standards of living in the case of AR, if so why can't the West?

Again and again people keep assuming that people in the west are some how balloon that pop at the sight of a slight breeze and extrapolating the behaviour of a very minor subset of the population to entire countries, look at the level of support for the war in Iraq post 9-11. The vast majority supported the war despite initially expecting tens of thousands of casualties.

Another point is that the US government has never cared about public opinion when going to war, not in Korea, not in Vietnam and not in the Middle East, why would you think the public will have any sway when the hegemony is at risk?

What does cheaper mean in this context? In a contest of nations the monetary value of system means little, only the numbers. Tha absolute number of planes, submarines and even large UAVs (reaper/predator) available to the US is still greater than Chinese stocks.

In terms of industrial capacity of course China is going to be greater, but the gap is not so insurmountable that anyone can draw conclusions like 10x out produce the West or that the US will drown in missiles.

Interestingly the Qinghai-tibet railway use all American manufactured rolling stock of Diesel electric rail cars.
China is far less mobilized than any major Western economy, even Japan. That's simple percentage maths.

Why would reduced living standards for Chinese citizens matter when they're defending themselves from a war of aggression by the US? How much did that matter for Ukrainian citizens? When the other guy is coming to your home, you have to do anything to get rid of him.

Russians going to Ukraine have the excuse of defending ethnic Russians, of the legacy from the Great Patriotic war, yet as we see, these motivators are not strong enough to cause a massive wave to rise up. Even the sporadic attacks on civilians inside Russia are not enough.

What will be the motivators for Americans to get drafted?

I don't agree with any assertation that attempts to play morale above any other factor, but realistically speaking, a war of aggression will mean a lessened amount of participants on the aggressor side.

For America, which must win a rapid decisive victory and achieve the unheard of feat in capturing territory from a nuclear power, having difficulty in drafting comparer to China which has no choice in drafting is yet another deterrent.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Comparing Vietnam, the Middle East, and Korea to today's China which has around the 2-3 times relative GDP of the USSR is a kindergarten-level argument. US attacking China would be like attacking USSR, but the one-two times stronger and on steroids.

Americans can't even point Afghanistan and Iraq on the map, but a war with China would bring hyperinflation of a couple of hundred points on a monthly basis, empty shelves since 80% of their GDP is the consumption of mostly Chinese-made goods, or goods with Chinese parts.

It would bring massive casualties as China is near-peer overall competitor fighting 100km from their shores, etc.

And it would happen in 2023 when 70% of voters of both parties consider the voters of the other party not to be good people and hate them. When government approval ratings are constantly 20-30%.

In 2 months maybe the maximum after the US launch such a war, I expect a civil war inside if they don't stop, not just civil unrest. The whole country burned down for 1 black man recently, I think for such hyperinflation and depression the whole country would collapse on its head.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Yeah all of those weapons are ancient and developed quite a while ago , same age as most Russian gear basically. The only high profile new equipment the west provided is MRAP, NLAW and UAV systems, note that age does not mean they are incapable, ultimately the west is still in a fully peace time economy.
Those weapons are today's standard. The West have still not moved on beyond Challneger IIs, Javelins, M777s, HIMARs etc. If you say that those are ancient, then most of the West is running on ancient stuff. So is the British Army ancient by your standards? Because they are issued Challenger II, HIMARS, and Javelins?

I keep seeing people repeating that Europe is getting deindustrialised but there is little evidence of it, in fact this is almost just as bad as people repeating that Russia will economically collapse any minute now. The truth is that most nations are more resilient then naysayers on the internet realise.
Take your head out of the sand and pay attention to the European economies. Have you not seen what is going on?

If you ever think that deindustrialization just won't happen to the West. Go and ask the British who lived through the Thatcher era. Deindustrialization doesn't happen overnight. But the process has already started. And the end result will be sorely felt by the Europeans.

Can new generation Chinese used to the new prosperity suddenly go massively backwards in standards of living in the case of AR, if so why can't the West?
Yes the current generation of Chinese can take the economic hit in AR. Because it's a war for the defense of the motherland.

The Westerners are used to seeing war away from home over some small nation that they can stomp on, while they can sip on Starbucks and wine. They thought that Russia can be stomped on like Afghanistan, just because they sided with Ukraine. When Russia cannot be stomped on, they are going into copium mode. Many Europeans claimed that they can take the economic hit, as long as it helps Ukraine win. Bullshit! They are not happy with their politicians. They are not happy with the inflation. They are not happy about losing jobs. All those strikes, and street protests. They are happening, but the Western MSM is underreporting it, and suppressing them with riot police.

The West is taking Russia as an existential threat. They are doing everything short of direct war to bring Russia down. They do the dirtiest things to Russia. But they want to do all of that without pain. They want their internet on, so that they can gloat to the Russians about being inferior to them. They still want their Starbucks and their cocktail bars. They still want to watch their sports. You tell me, that such a society can endure wartime economy and general mobilization?

If you still say yes, just look at how they handled themselves during Covid. It was a life and death situation. How well did they follow the rules? How well did they accept the science? How well did they accept reality?

Again and again people keep assuming that people in the west are some how balloon that pop at the sight of a slight breeze and extrapolating the behaviour of a very minor subset of the population to entire countries, look at the level of support for the war in Iraq post 9-11. The vast majority supported the war despite initially expecting tens of thousands of casualties.
Yeah, and? Support for a war doesn't equate to the ability to ensure the war.

BTW, they were not expecting thousands of casualties in the Middle East. They expected to wipe the floor with the Afghans and the Iraqis. They expected another 1991 Gulf War. But when the body bags start coming home by the thousands. When the war dragged on long after Bush Jr declared 'Mission Accomplished'. That's when they start to get upset. That's when they start to question the politicians. And you think this kind of society can endure WW3?

Another point is that the US government has never cared about public opinion when going to war, not in Korea, not in Vietnam and not in the Middle East, why would you think the public will have any sway when the hegemony is at risk?
If the US government had never cared for public opinion. They wouldn't have gotten out of Vietnam and allowed North Vietnam to overrun South Vietnam to win the Vietnam War.

Most of the Western public are used to imperial wars in other people's shores. They are part of the imperial hegemony. They always liked their wars, until they find out that they're not winning. Then the wars become unpopular. Yeah, they do like a WW3 now. But let's see how they like WW3 when it really happens.

What does cheaper mean in this context? In a contest of nations the monetary value of system means little, only the numbers. Tha absolute number of planes, submarines and even large UAVs (reaper/predator) available to the US is still greater than Chinese stocks.
Yeah the Chinese can procure their jets, ships, and missiles cheaper than the Americans. What is so insignificant about that? The Chinese can buy two Type 055s for the price of 1 Burke. You do the math.

When you talk about numbers, understand the bigger picture. The US have more warplanes, heavy surface combatants, CVNs, and SSNs than China. But can they all be at China? What about Russia and Iran? What about their homeland? Their world empire still needs to be maintained.

China has less of the big ticket stuff, but they have numerous frigates, corvettes, and SSKs. These things matter when war is being fought on China's doorstep. Their airforce is not as big as the USAF, but they can overwhelm the USAF forces stationed near China. Should China build a bigger force now to deal with the US? Absolutely, and China is doing all it can to stay out any war to buy time for that.

In terms of industrial capacity of course China is going to be greater, but the gap is not so insurmountable that anyone can draw conclusions like 10x out produce the West or that the US will drown in missiles.
China's industrial capacity is bigger than the US and Europe combined. No one have said that China can produce 10x the arms production of the West. 2x to 5x is already bad enough for the West.

Col. McGregor, not a fan of China, had once said that China has the war production capacity that is 2x the capacity of the US in WW2. Take that with a pinch of salt. But no one can deny that China has significantly larger war production capacity than the US.

The ability to outproduce and outnumber your enemy is a winning formula. That's how WWI and WWII were won by the Allies.

Interestingly the Qinghai-tibet railway use all American manufactured rolling stock of Diesel electric rail cars.
Yeah. And the Boston subway is using Chinese rolling stocks. And many of the electric buses in the US are Chinese-made. And practically all consumer drones in the US are Chinese-made. China produces more ships than the US and Europe combined. Try harder.
 

Serb

Junior Member
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Maj. Gen. Cameron Holt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Air Force for Acquisition, recently issued a severe warning in response to China’s outstanding achievements in defense acquisition, resulting in its military obtaining new equipment “five to six times” faster than the U.S.

The U.S. defense official’s warning is the latest that the country has received regarding an antiquated procurement and modernization process that has allowed China to overtake the world’s most powerful military in the race for acquisition.

Holt stated that the Chinese are not only getting new weapons at a phenomenal rate, but they are also operating far more efficiently. In terms of purchasing power parity, he informed his audience that they pay roughly one dollar compared to twenty dollars in the United States to get equivalent skills.


This is in a time of peace. And in a time of war, I think that the Chinese would be way more likely to work inside the factories to produce more military equipment for their countries than the westerners. Therefore I think it won't be 5-6, but 10-12 times then. It is my opinion after knowing some sociological stuff about these 2 countries.
 
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