Resumption of the civil war.... the ultimate American Tonya Harding move
What ever did happen to Tonya Harding?
Resumption of the civil war.... the ultimate American Tonya Harding move
Unlike Russia with Ukraine, there was an actual test of this: the flash drills near Taiwan in August 2022 around the Pelosi visits.Interesting article. Forget about strategic surprise.
If you actually read it, it's another version of this:Interesting article. Forget about strategic surprise.
Goes double for US since they have to invade China on the other side of the Pacific.Interesting article. Forget about strategic surprise.
They don't have the capability to deploy 8/12 CBGs in the near term, they will need 42 months to get to the 70% readiness required for deploying 8/12 carriers. Doctrinally, CBG readiness is 20-30% with surge capability up to 50% within 18-24 months.Goes double for US since they have to invade China on the other side of the Pacific.
China can call up defensive forces around its border on very short notice. Its much harder for US to get a force capable of taking over Taiwan Island without raising huge red flags everywhere.
If US actually attacks, then I don't think there's any doubt that China would undergo general mobilization.
China does not benefit as much from surprise as from just dragging out the fight so they can mobilize. For Americans, the war is at most a vague attempt at "defending hegemony", while for Chinese it is an issue of survival.
There is a question of what Americans can send. A mere special military operation with 2 CVBG + 200k troops? Declare war and send the whole US military? The former would probably just get run over by the PLA, even before China makes a draft. The latter means huge risk, and what if China avoids decisive battle with the US armada and merely engages using missiles and drones spewed out by its industries?
Plus, if US opts for the latter, the whole world will realize what they're doing the moment they prepare it. It would take months to transit all equipment to China's border, and unlike Russia who at least has the flimsy excuse of doing border drills, its hard to see how US could excuse collecting 8+ CVBGs in Asia as a routine exercise.
The problem with all these western analyses is the incorrect underlying assumption that China would attack on a whim. The most likely realistic scenario is China attacking in reaction to a move towards formal independence. That would involve a drawn out ratcheting up of preparations. But even if there's no preparation, a blockade can be implemented by the PLAN with no preparation, as has been demonstrated already. A bombardment of the island with missiles won't need any additional preparation. The air force is practicing flying into the ADIZ on a daily basis. So a shock and awe campaign could be started immediately. Whether it's worth it to attack with no preparation to deny the separatists the possibility of mobilisation or whether it's better to mobilize first I don't know, but I'd tend towards attacking immediately and mobilising while the US starts its own mobilisation.Interesting article. Forget about strategic surprise.
Isn't China already building missiles at a rapid pace?Modern war between great powers (and even not-so-great powers) consumes huge stocks of key munitions, especially precision-guided ones for high-intensity naval, air, and amphibious warfare. So China would have already started surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles; anti-air, air-to-air, and large rockets for long-range beach bombardment; and numerous other items, at least a year before D-Day.
Most of this has already partially been done because of zero covid or could be done immediately such as tightening currency controls and nationalising foreign assets. The only thing that can't be done already is selling China's reserves, some of them will likely have to be written off if China is forced to act.China also would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions. This would go beyond its current industrial policies and dual circulation strategy, which collectively aim to achieve technological and material self-sufficiency, or even its limited measures against increasing U.S. use of export controls, sanctions, and economic and financial pressure. As CSIS Senior Fellow Gerard DiPippo recently noted, near-term indicators of approaching conflict would include financial elements such as imposition of stronger cross-border capital controls, a freeze on foreign financial assets within China, and rapid liquidation and repatriation of Chinese assets held abroad. It would also include a surge in stockpiling emergency supplies, such as medicine or key technology inputs; a suspension of key exports, such as critical minerals, refined petroleum products, or food; measures to reduce demand or ration key goods, especially imports such as oil and gas; and prioritization or redirection of key inputs for military production. Chinese elites and high-priority workers would also face international travel restrictions.
America's actions are sufficient to create anti American sentiment in China. The US has never been this unpopular. And if war broke out but zero covid would be stopped, most people would probably benefit financiallyAnd China’s leaders probably would be preparing their people psychologically for the costs of war: austerity, tens of thousands of combat deaths, and civilian deaths from U.S.- and Taiwan-launched strikes.
That would be nice to have, but unnecessary. 2007 was a long time ago and the stop loss was probably more about signalling than preparation. In any case, recently demobilised personnel can easily be reintegratedPreparations within the PLA would also alert U.S. intelligence that preparations for war were underway. Six or twelve months before a prospective invasion, China probably would implement a PLA-wide stop loss, halting demobilizations of enlisted personnel and officers, just as it did in 2007 when it ratcheted up pressure as Taiwan prepared to hold elections
That would make sense for the US or Russian military that is mostly managing old hardware. The vast majority of PLA equipment is new so it won't need excessive maintenance before the warThree to six months out, the PLA would also halt most regular training and perform maintenance on virtually all major equipment. It would expand the capacity of the Navy and Air Force to rearm, resupply, and repair ships, submarines, and aircraft away from military facilities that the United States or Taiwan would likely bomb, including naval bases and military airfields near the Taiwan Strait. The PLA Navy would replace electric batteries on its non-nuclear submarines and intensify training in loading missiles, torpedoes, and ammunition on all vessels.
Once again the author is confusing American capabilities with Chinese capabilities. China can build a hospital in less than two weeksIn its Eastern and Southern Theater Commands opposite Taiwan, the PLA would take preparation steps rarely seen in mere exercises. Field hospitals would be established close to embarkation points and airfields. There likely would be public blood drives. Mobile command posts would depart garrisons and move to hidden locations. Units responsible for managing petroleum, oil, and lubricants would deploy with field pipeline convoys to support vehicle preparation at civilian ports being used to load transport ships embarking on an invasion.
None of these takes much timeThe PLA would place forces, including those far from the Taiwan Strait, on alert. Beijing has long feared chain-reaction warfare, either by the United States or encouraged by it, on China's other borders. Across the PLA, leave would be canceled and service members would be recalled to duty and restricted to their garrisons or ships. Hundreds of military air and chartered flights would carry key material and senior officers to inspect preparations in the Eastern Theater Command. Normal passenger and cargo flights would be disrupted.
That seems unlikely. More reasonably China would destroy the separatists as fast as possible and only start mobilisation after the resumption of hostilities and only if the US starts its own mobilisationAnd the CCP would order national mobilization at least three or four months in advance of planned combat
Russia's campaign is a masterclass in what not to do. The government is probably learning more from it than the separatists. Just use the American air war on Iraq as a templateEven if Xi were tempted to launch a quick campaign and hope that Taiwan’s will to fight would quickly collapse, Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine probably has induced more caution in Beijing.
Russia's campaign mainly shows US what to do and not do.The problem with all these western analyses is the incorrect underlying assumption that China would attack on a whim. The most likely realistic scenario is China attacking in reaction to a move towards formal independence. That would involve a drawn out ratcheting up of preparations. But even if there's no preparation, a blockade can be implemented by the PLAN with no preparation, as has been demonstrated already. A bombardment of the island with missiles won't need any additional preparation. The air force is practicing flying into the ADIZ on a daily basis. So a shock and awe campaign could be started immediately. Whether it's worth it to attack with no preparation to deny the separatists the possibility of mobilisation or whether it's better to mobilize first I don't know, but I'd tend towards attacking immediately and mobilising while the US starts its own mobilisation.
Isn't China already building missiles at a rapid pace?
Most of this has already partially been done because of zero covid or could be done immediately such as tightening currency controls and nationalising foreign assets. The only thing that can't be done already is selling China's reserves, some of them will likely have to be written off if China is forced to act.
America's actions are sufficient to create anti American sentiment in China. The US has never been this unpopular. And if war broke out but zero covid would be stopped, most people would probably benefit financially
That would be nice to have, but unnecessary. 2007 was a long time ago and the stop loss was probably more about signalling than preparation. In any case, recently demobilised personnel can easily be reintegrated
That would make sense for the US or Russian military that is mostly managing old hardware. The vast majority of PLA equipment is new so it won't need excessive maintenance before the war
Once again the author is confusing American capabilities with Chinese capabilities. China can build a hospital in less than two weeks
None of these takes much time
That seems unlikely. More reasonably China would destroy the separatists as fast as possible and only start mobilisation after the resumption of hostilities and only if the US starts its own mobilisation
Russia's campaign is a masterclass in what not to do. The government is probably learning more from it than the separatists. Just use the American air war on Iraq as a template
Americans thinkers are often clueless and can't stop saying America number one. A strategic surprise attack is possible today, but in 2027 it would be even easier. So it's better to wait for now