PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

gelgoog said:

They are already in the process of building two Project 23900 LHDs at Zaliv Shipyard.

I do not know why some people think Russia cannot afford carriers, when the UK has two. Russia just won't be building heavy carriers without having the escorts for them built. It is about as simple as that.


They are currently building two PAK-DA prototypes. And they need some sort of Tu-22M3 or Tu-95 replacement. The Tu-160 is just too bleepin expensive.


A-50 is being upgraded to A-50U. Which is pretty modern in terms of electronics. I talked about this before. They got like seven A-50Us.
A-100 is still under development.


Well Russia's Navy is way behind the other services so it is much necessary for investments to be made. As is Russia is already losing more ships yearly than the ships they build. And yes Russia does need some kind of fleet otherwise they can't escort their merchant fleet.

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Russian merchant fleet is relatively small, IDK if it's worth it. Russia has to pick and choose at this point, if they want to do everything, they can't do it on $60 billion USD and that's already 4-5% GDP, it's at the limit of sustainability. Since they actually use their ground forces and tactical air (and their strategic forces) that's what they should prioritize. Navy should be cut to bare bones. Yes it sucks but if you try to get everything half assed you get nothing in the end.

Based on what I've seen, they cut the ground forces for their prestige projects like Oscar class modernization, Kirov modernization and trying to repair Kuznetzov. Not even going into PAK-DA or Lider cost since I don't know. They only introduced low double digits of T-14s and Terminators, none of which are deployed in Ukraine, and they don't even have enough radios, 122 mm shells or NVGs. But their ground forces are what they actually use over and over again.

. That's 300 T-14s. and yet it did nothing in Ukraine. They could've purchased 10k radios and NVGs for 50k each and still have 500 million left for a few dozen CH-5 UCAVs and hundreds of DJIs.

What would be more useful, Kuznetzov still under repair and Admiral Nakhimov in the Arctic fleet, or 300 T-14s, everyone in the expeditionary force having radios and NVG, and half of all BTGs having Orlans to spot for them?

What if they just retired their Oscar class SSGNs? Painful but if they retired them - which can't fire Kalibrs anyhow - . That's 100 Terminators, 100 SMERCH and 50 CH-5 type drones.

Just from the savings of scrapping Kuznetzov, Admiral Nakhimov and 3 Oscar class subs, they could've had an additional 300 T-14s, 100 Terminators, 100 SMERCH, hundreds of DJIs, 50 CH-5s, and everyone having access to NVGs and encrypted radios. The Russian expeditionary force would've been ridiculously well equipped with tanks and IFV literally decades ahead of Ukrainian, every company having radios and NVG, more of a bigger better HIMARS, and more+superior drones than a few dozen TB-2s.

What about tactical air? (40 billion ruble, ~600 million USD) for Marshal Ustinov, and bought Su-57s. they could've bought ~20 Su-57s and scrapped Marshal Ustinov. Which is worth more to Russia, having a squadron of 20 Su-57s to shoot down Ukraine's air force on Day 1 or Admiral Ustinov being on vacation in an Arctic cruise?

None of these required any Ukrainian facilities: BMPT and T-14 are both diesel engine, they can buy radios/NVG/CH-5/DJIs directly from China, Su-57 engines are Al-41s made in Russia. Their surface navy - the least relevant part for the actual Ukraine conflict - required the Ukrainian facilities.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Just found this Tweet and some of its replies that basically confirmed the point:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568700926948683776

Unroll:


One of the noteworthy replies under the post is this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568758301487431680

Unroll:


Honestly, Russia still thinks and behaves as if herself is still the Soviet Union (and that herself is the only one in this world that could go toe-to-toe with th United States), and still views China as some kind of a junior partner (just like how the Soviet Union under Stalin and Khruschev viewed China under Mao).

Yet, China today resembles nothing of China in the 1950s or 1960s. Although I suppose many in Russia still choose to live in the time period when they were the "Big Brotha" in Sino-Soviet/Russo relations.

Meanwhile, it is clear to everyone now that Russia wants to behave like a world nuclear superpower, but without the necessary population size, economic prowess and the industrial scale to back that behavior.

Click to expand...

I don't really get the vibe that Russians widely consider themselves to be superior hence why they decided to fight alone. More like, they decide to do it because they want to show that they're a more useful and independent ally and so get bargaining chips later. Like how in Falklands war UK fought alone without having to call in USA. Of course there's a few people like that clown who thinks Russia doesn't need Yuan and only need ruble reserves (lmao what). But I don't think Putin is one of them and Putin is already relatively west friendly, being chosen by Yeltsin.

Manpower is Russia's main woe but that doesn't mean aid from China will be ineffective, just that aid should be chosen smartly tailored to the situation on the ground. China can deploy MLRS, drones, AEW, satellite network sharing, SRBM, mass NVG and suicide/spotter drones for the average Russian soldier. PLAAF pilots can fly the AEW themselves inside RU territory without involving RUAF, far out of reach from actual combat with plausible deniability.

China would set up a smaller version of the missile/artillery tyranny they have overlooking the Chinese straits and Sea of Japan. And as we have seen through a lot of analysis about how China can decimate the rebel army without even landing 1 troop, lack of manpower wouldn't matter.

While its massively jumping the gun to say that Russia can't win by itself, China cannot abandon them at any cost, this is absolutely vital if Beijing is to defend against American attacks. Russia secures and transfers resources through China's Northern land border, without which, US blockade will turn from a joke into a legit threat. If China turns away Russia in its hour of need, it will have difficulties getting help later. Its not even that the Russian military is needed to help guard against USA, although it would be strongly appreciated if only to pressure Japan and SK sector.

Biscuits said:

I don't really get the vibe that Russians widely consider themselves to be superior hence why they decided to fight alone. More like, they decide to do it because they want to show that they're a more useful and independent ally and so get bargaining chips later. Like how in Falklands war UK fought alone without having to call in USA. Of course there's a few people like that clown who thinks Russia doesn't need Yuan and only need ruble reserves (lmao what). But I don't think Putin is one of them and Putin is already relatively west friendly, being chosen by Yeltsin.

Manpower is Russia's main woe but that doesn't mean aid from China will be ineffective, just that aid should be chosen smartly tailored to the situation on the ground. China can deploy MLRS, drones, AEW, satellite network sharing, SRBM, mass NVG and suicide/spotter drones for the average Russian soldier. PLAAF pilots can fly the AEW themselves inside RU territory without involving RUAF, far out of reach from actual combat with plausible deniability.

China would set up a smaller version of the missile/artillery tyranny they have overlooking the Chinese straits and Sea of Japan. And as we have seen through a lot of analysis about how China can decimate the rebel army without even landing 1 troop, lack of manpower wouldn't matter.

While its massively jumping the gun to say that Russia can't win by itself, China cannot abandon them at any cost, this is absolutely vital if Beijing is to defend against American attacks. Russia secures and transfers resources through China's Northern land border, without which, US blockade will turn from a joke into a legit threat. If China turns away Russia in its hour of need, it will have difficulties getting help later. Its not even that the Russian military is needed to help guard against USA, although it would be strongly appreciated if only to pressure Japan and SK sector.

Click to expand...

Russia is nowhere near loosing the war in Ukraine. Unless and until they are at actual risk of that happening, I seriously doubt you will see material Chinese military support from China to Russia.

Both Russia and China wants Russia to fight and win alone for different reasons.

One thing that I find very interesting is the absence of much of the Russian modern fighter fleets during this offensive.

The Russians are reported be to throwing in their bombers but where are their fighters? Only picture I have seen of Russian tacair was a su24 with iron bombs and videos of Su27s doing CSA at ultra low altitudes.

If China was to provide Russia with military aid, one of the early signs I would look out for is much of their best TacAir disappearing from the frontlines for weeks or even months.

What I would consider to be very strong proof is if Russian TacAir returns to the fight and suddenly they are dropping PGMs like NATO and can do proper SEAD and DEAD against Ukrainian air defences and doing effective deep strikes.

The irony is that if this was to happen, you will find almost all of the equipment and munitions that allows Russian TacAir to perform these missiles would be of Russian origin. They just didn’t buy enough of them or give their own pilots enough training to make good use of them.

Biscuits said:

While its massively jumping the gun to say that Russia can't win by itself, China cannot abandon them at any cost, this is absolutely vital if Beijing is to defend against American attacks. Russia secures and transfers resources through China's Northern land border, without which, US blockade will turn from a joke into a legit threat. If China turns away Russia in its hour of need, it will have difficulties getting help later. Its not even that the Russian military is needed to help guard against USA, although it would be strongly appreciated if only to pressure Japan and SK sector.

Click to expand...

Yes, China will not abandon Russia.

1. At a minimum, China should prevent the collapse of the Russian economy.

No matter what government is in charge in Russia, they will appreciate Chinese efforts to prevent a Russian economic collapse.
That applies whether it is Putin, a successor who is more hostile to the West, or even a successor who is pro-Western.

Given that Russia-China trade is mutually beneficial, it's a no-brainer to continue trading as much as possible.

2. A secure stable border with Russia, along with good relations, is critical to China's strategic competition against the USA.

Way OT, guys.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Just found this Tweet and some of its replies that basically confirmed the point:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568700926948683776

Unroll:


One of the noteworthy replies under the post is this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568758301487431680

Unroll:


Honestly, Russia still thinks and behaves as if herself is still the Soviet Union (and that herself is the only one in this world that could go toe-to-toe with th United States), and still views China as some kind of a junior partner (just like how the Soviet Union under Stalin and Khruschev viewed China under Mao).

Yet, China today resembles nothing of China in the 1950s or 1960s. Although I suppose many in Russia still choose to live in the time period when they were the "Big Brotha" in Sino-Soviet/Russo relations.

Meanwhile, it is clear to everyone now that Russia wants to behave like a world nuclear superpower, but without the necessary population size, economic prowess and the industrial scale to back that behavior.

Click to expand...

Reading their history pretty much confirms this sort of unfortunate "superiority traits" that they can't seem to excised out of their stupid existence. The Czar thought they could walk over the lowly Imperial Japanese and his naval force got walloped leading to the demise of his empire and the death of his family. Stalin made a couple of mistakes during WWII based on hubris; Nikita Kruschev thought less of China let alone Mao even dismissed Mao as crazy nutbar which allowed the deterioration of the relationship of then two allies thereby allowing the U.S. to take advantage of that enmity by allying with China in the 1970's thereby solidifying the end of Soviet Union. Gorbachev thought he knew economics and politcal reform better than Deng when he visited China at the height of Tiananmen demonstration assumed ironically that Deng and the CPC were on it's last legs not realizing it was Gorby that was about to be replaced thereby ending the Soviet Union. I mean, there was this Russian fellow Antony Martinov who's written two books bragging about Russia awesomeness and it's supposed autarkic system and has a definite dismissive tone against China. In fact, on his Youtube Channel he sort of dismissed China's apparent barking during Pelosi's recent visit as useless since China didn't exercise the use of force making China's threat hollow and made her looked weak. Unlike Russian actions in Ukraine....

As an example of Russian arrogance, why didn't Russia import any drones from China knowing that drones is an integral part of todays 21st century modern military? These folks are too high on their non-existing superiority especially in today's context.

plawolf said:

Yes and no. They already have a more than credible nuclear retaliation force from their silo and road mobile ICBM inventories. If they had zero subs, you think the Americans would be brave enough to even think about using nukes against Russia? Subs doesn’t really change much for them other than prestige.

The best argument in favour of their nuke sub development would be to retain the knowledge and skills it took so long and cost so much to accumulate. Which would be fair, but they could have been smarter and less proud. China would have paid for their entire military modernisation had the Russians been willing to sell and share its nuclear sub secrets. That would have turned their cash black hole into the biggest cash cow for them.

Putin may have offered that now, but it’s questionable just how much China is now prepared to paid since it has already gone through the pain of developing the 095 and 096 class.

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No doubt that China would pay for Russian nuclear submarine tech if Russians were willing to sell at a reasonable price. However, no way would China pay that much money (enough to make a long-lasting material difference in Russia's military modernization) for Russian nuclear sub secrets. Nuclear attack submarines are nice-to-haves for China given its geography, not something critical. As for SSBNs, until recently China didn't even bother to build up its ground ICBM force for much less costs (and as you pointed out re Russia, a large ground ICBM force is enough for deterrence).

By the time Trump turned full anti-China and China got serious about nuclear deterrence, China immediately started to build more ICBM silos. SSBN takes way too long to build and become operational, even with technical assistance from Russia, to be a valid option to meet China's urgent deterrence need. China would be more interested in Russia's stockpile of weapon grade nuclear materials.

plawolf said:

The irony is that if this was to happen, you will find almost all of the equipment and munitions that allows Russian TacAir to perform these missiles would be of Russian origin. They just didn’t buy enough of them or give their own pilots enough training to make good use of them.

Click to expand...

In one of Shilao's podcasts, the guys mentioned that only elite Russian pilots got chance to familiarize themselves with PGMs and Russian PGM manufacturers actually benefited more from Chinese feedback because Russians just don't play with those enough.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Reading their history pretty much confirms this sort of unfortunate "superiority traits" that they can't seem to excised out of their stupid existence. The Czar thought they could walk over the lowly Imperial Japanese and his naval force got walloped leading to the demise of his empire and the death of his family. Stalin made a couple of mistakes during WWII based on hubris; Nikita Kruschev thought less of China let alone Mao even dismissed Mao as crazy nutbar which allowed the deterioration of the relationship of then two allies thereby allowing the U.S. to take advantage of that enmity by allying with China in the 1970's thereby solidifying the end of Soviet Union. Gorbachev thought he knew economics and politcal reform better than Deng when he visited China at the height of Tiananmen demonstration assumed ironically that Deng and the CPC were on it's last legs not realizing it was Gorby that was about to be replaced thereby ending the Soviet Union. I mean, there was this Russian fellow Antony Martinov who's written two books bragging about Russia awesomeness and it's supposed autarkic system and has a definite dismissive tone against China. In fact, on his Youtube Channel he sort of dismissed China's apparent barking during Pelosi's recent visit as useless since China didn't exercise the use of force making China's threat hollow and made her looked weak. Unlike Russian actions in Ukraine....

As an example of Russian arrogance, why didn't Russia import any drones from China knowing that drones is an integral part of todays 21st century modern military? These folks are too high on their non-existing superiority especially in today's context.

Click to expand...

Speaking of Gorbachev, I read somewhere that before taking the trip, Gorbachev in 1989 was debating whether it was even useful to talk to Deng since clearly there was no use in negotiations so close to a new regime taking power...

FairAndUnbiased said:

Speaking of Gorbachev, I read somewhere that before taking the trip, Gorbachev in 1989 was debating whether it was even useful to talk to Deng since clearly there was no use in negotiations so close to a new regime taking power...

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He was right though. A new regime did take over and dissolved a Super Power to boot.

Let’s get back on topic please.

Resumption of the civil war.... the ultimate American Tonya Harding move