PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

In4ser

Junior Member
This should be really easy to understand. The old Chinese saying goes, "There cannot be two tigers living on the same mountain." This has nothing to do with ideology or how anybody conducts themselves. If any country in the world begins to gain power at a rate that can end American dominance, America will find a reason to turn it into the enemy. It could be the most liberal democracy in existance but America's only care is to be the world's ruler and any nation that stands in its way it must justify to the American people why that nation is evil. If China decided to do the easy life of farming and gave all its assets and tech to Canada tomorrow, Canada would be enemy number 1 for America instantly. It's not America-specific either. If America collapsed today, China and Russia would be rivals instead of allies tomorrow because then, they would be the 2 tigers inhabiting the same mountain. It's human nature.
I think a humbled but strong America can be helpful. Provided Taiwan is reunified with the Mainland, better a threat far away across the ocean unifying China and Russia together than against each other as neighbors. Neighboring India's aspirational behavior to be a superpower is annoying enough but competing against two direct neighbors for dominance (who might be potentially working together against you) would not be fun.
 
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bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
This should be really easy to understand. The old Chinese saying goes, "There cannot be two tigers living on the same mountain." This has nothing to do with ideology or how anybody conducts themselves. If any country in the world begins to gain power at a rate that can end American dominance, America will find a reason to turn it into the enemy. It could be the most liberal democracy in existance but America's only care is to be the world's ruler and any nation that stands in its way it must justify to the American people why that nation is evil. If China decided to do the easy life of farming and gave all its assets and tech to Canada tomorrow, Canada would be enemy number 1 for America instantly. It's not America-specific either. If America collapsed today, China and Russia would be rivals instead of allies tomorrow because then, they would be the 2 tigers inhabiting the same mountain. It's human nature.
Not a good long term strategy and it leaves a lot of fertilized fields full of the bones of young men. Lets say china surpasses us because just population wise they can have half our gdp per person and have a much higher national gdp. What changes?? China makes things we buy and trade of course the petro dollar dies but i am sure friendly negotiating ahead of time can get some favors for economic intigration. China stays in china we stay in the usa same for japan and korea.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not a good long term strategy and it leaves a lot of fertilized fields full of the bones of young men. Lets say china surpasses us because just population wise they can have half our gdp per person and have a much higher national gdp. What changes?? China makes things we buy and trade of course the petro dollar dies but i am sure friendly negotiating ahead of time can get some favors for economic intigration. China stays in china we stay in the usa same for japan and korea.
That's really not how the 'elites'/the people who actually controls the US sees things.

Not to mention, you also need to get a proper deep dive and look into how the US actually operates and it's neo-imperialism/neo-colonialism as well as its history of actions it has done all over the world.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I am always confused by our hatred of china. They helped us in world war 2, the sino soviet split helped us in the cold war . They have been a decent trade partner . Overall while they conduct sophisticated covert ops they are within norms. I do not agree with everything they do but i do not see any behavior that stands out as violating any particular norm.Would i like china to be more liberal? Yeah but shit overall the folk seem happy with it and it ain’t my country . If this is just a war of values i think america should just open a resettlement program that gets housing and work in the usa for folks who do not want to be in china.
The problem is the US government does not operate like a normal country should. They are invaders that always look for more and more, never satisfied until they achieved some form of "new order" that they themselves brainwashed themselves into thinking is their birthright... In reality, other people's lives are no one's birthright. But American regime officials don't think like civilized human beings.

America is always doing many fucked up things domestically and also in their client states, but China always (and still does mostly) ignore them and let them do their own things, because meddling wouldn't necessarily make things better.

If there's anyone who can save US its their own people. The Soviets helped Germans get rid of nazis but China will not be able to help Americans get rid of American ultra nationalists, due to risk of nuclear war.

Say no to starting new invasions, disband rogue government organizations, get rid of the oligarch influences. Ironically if US did that, they might actually be able to compete China in education, industry and healthcare. Which are the factors that actually matter. How many normal Americans actually benefit from your government stacking "wins" by massacring innocents in their own third world colonies?

Sad truth is, your government pumped your gdp per capita to like 4x higher than the average Chinese yet on average you live shorter lives and as a group, experience far more poverty, homelessness and hunger. So how much of that big gdp actually goes to normal people and how much sits in the bank of some oligarch?

With those fat pigs gone, maybe there will be enough to share both sides of the Pacific. But peace is impossible as long as US is led by people who only want to take take and take, from their own citizens, from foreigners, more and more without end.
 

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
There was that one big wargame done in the US (not sure by whom) where the conclusion was that us victory would come at a tremendous cost. I remember it was said a detailed rundown of the wargame would be published by december. So the question is: does anyone know if any big wargame paper was recently published?
pretty sure it was and we did not win we lost hard
 

ironborn

Junior Member
Registered Member
There was that one big wargame done in the US (not sure by whom) where the conclusion was that us victory would come at a tremendous cost. I remember it was said a detailed rundown of the wargame would be published by december. So the question is: does anyone know if any big wargame paper was recently published?
If you mean the one done by CSIS, which Kurt Campbell has some interests in it.
It is an utter pile of steaming dog poo of war game by any standards.
It pit Japan and US combined forces against PLA ETC, ETC only. The result is PLA liberated southern Taiwan island, but did not held the northern part, which is where the capital city is at. The US and vassal lost 900+ planes and 2 carriers. But they still declared a victory, since PLA did not occupy Taipei city.

Let that sink in for a moment.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
So... Is there a detailed pdf document of a/the wargame out there?


I managed to find the PDF report of the war games held by another prominent think tank in the U.S. Center for New American Security (CNAS) headed by former Deputy SecDef Michelle Flournoy. But I couldn't find the Pdf report on the wargames held by CSIS.

In any case, I embedded all the links I could find pertinent to what you have been asking for, or at least the most relevant.

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