The War in the Ukraine

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
At least 9,311 Russian soldiers have died since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nine months ago, according to an independent investigation conducted jointly by the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian news outlet MediaZona.
...
The number of Russia’s irreversible losses, a figure that includes the severely injured and the missing, could be as high as 100,000 people, the BBC said.
MediaZona was founded by Pussy Riot which are sponsored by US NED and George Soros OpenSociety foundation.
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So much for "independent". Also there is no way Russia lost like 2/3rds of its initial invasion force in irreversible losses.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
You go to warm up, you get a "bonus" - a summons. A cunning plan of the Ukrainian authorities!


According to Rybar, AFU 65th Brigade being transferred from the Zaporizhia direction to Bakhmut. This confirms the AFU's critical situation in the Bakhmut direction. But also, if confirmed, this puts serious doubts on a near-future offensive on Melitopol.

Funny how Russians claim Ukraine is sending troops from this region after Ukraine made the claim a day before that Russians from this region are pulling out...


Hmm... I wonder who is right
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
"Early this morning, information appeared about the Russian Armed Forces striking an energy facility in Zaporizhzhia. In reality, the strike hit the ZaporozhTransformator plant in the right-bank part of the city."

"The missiles struck Facility No. 1, where the final assembly of products was carried out. There were also finished transformers waiting for delivery: judging by the images, they burned up in the fire."

"The missile strike on the enterprise was clearly intended to deprive Kyiv authorities of the opportunity to replace the electrical equipment destroyed during the mass missile strikes on Ukrainian power system facilities by the Russian Armed Forces."
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Again today arrivals on Donetsk by the AFU. As usual - against civilian targets. Ukrainian Army shells peaceful areas of Donetsk again — heavy strikes in central districts. In particular, the Krytoy Market area and Voroshylovskyi district came under fire from Ukrainian militants.







Military and civilian casualties in the Donetsk People's Republic:




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Donetsk Republic (DPR) head Denis Pushilin says Russian forces continue to advance on Avdeevka, DPR. Ukrainian battalions are pulled out of Orekhov, Zaporozhye, will be sent to reinforce Ukrainian defenses in Artyomovsk-Bakhmut, DPR as Russian forces take control of nearby settlements in Artyomovsk-Bakhmut area. Russian Defense Ministry confirms Russian-led forces take control of Kurdyumovka, Donetsk Republic.

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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
There is no deadline. The Russian government announced a couple days ago they canned the state arms program and will be redoing it all over taking into consideration the demands of the SMO. This means they are into it for the long haul since the state arms program basically defines weapons purchases on the level of like 5 years or even 10 years. If this was going to be a short term affair then they wouldn't cancel a long horizon program like that.


I agree with you that it will become more difficult the more time passes. Russia should have started mobilization shortly after the invasion. But you get what you get.
Clarification.

For me the definition "there is no deadline" doesn't means that they have plenty of time, orthere is no need to finish it as soon as possible.

It means that the timeline depends on a cost / benefit analysis.

Originall plan was to make peace and an agreement about Ukraine netrality back im march/April, but Boris the Clown made it impossible.

Now, if we can make few edcuated guess.

1. Ukrainan military condition NOW , compared to the past year - I think it is safe to say it is the lowest. Due to ammunition, manpower, equipment , electrictiy , fuel and so on shortage.
2. At say summer 2023, the Ukrainan military/ NATO condition would be better than now ? Yes.
3. At summer of 2024, the condition of Ukrainan military / NATO will be better than at summer 2023 ? Yes.
What is the earliest time to start the ammunition porduction of USA,could it be at say begining of 2023? low chance, but not impossible. At begining of 2024 ? high chance. At and of 2024 ? 100 % sure.


So, we can say if the Russian : NATO units losses are say 1:5 , then it will be less favorable for Russia in the future. Means any offensive will have less favorable outcomes regards of losses after the winter of 2022 than any time later.


Means Russia has to start an offensive NOW, or the commutative losses over tiem could be higher than the losses with an offensive now.

I think this weekend is the ideal time. But if they don't do it until january then it could means seriuos trouble for Russia.


IT is a decision tree, with all branche reduced to expected cost regards of loss of lives.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
General interview only gave out over 7,000 guided munition from combat aircraft. now this looks small relative to sorties of combat aircraft but in over all context this is big number. how you are going to find so many fixed targets?
it does not include anything related to guided strikes by attack choppers.
this in addition to strike drone targets which most probably used guided weopons.


This indicate the heavy use of attack choppers that new system first to implement for measuring airframe life is on Ka-52. the point is this firstconflict where importance of attack chopper is equal or surpassing fighter aircraft. similar case is happening with overhelming use of bombers for cruise missile strikes that also may surpass fighter aircraft combat utility.
Russian fighter aircraft have played an important role in the war, inflicting significant damage on the Ukrainian Air Force in BVR combat. In particular, the Mig-31 with its long range R-33 missiles which it can fire at virtual impunity. Ukraine flew its fighters at ultra low altitudes to avoid Russian SAMs, but that still left them vulnerable to Russian high altitude fighters and interceptors.
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
Russian fighter aircraft have played an important role in the war, inflicting significant damage on the Ukrainian Air Force in BVR combat. In particular, the Mig-31 with its long range R-33 missiles which it can fire at virtual impunity. Ukraine flew its fighters at ultra low altitudes to avoid Russian SAMs, but that still left them vulnerable to Russian high altitude fighters and interceptors.
yes but that is expected. what was not expected was so many attack chopper/Su-25 in the battlefield from Belarus in North to Crimea in South. when you look at pics of Su-30/Su-34/Su-35 they rarely carry any external fuel tanks and lightly loaded relative to there total payload. while Su-25/Attack chopper carry external fuel tanks most of time and are more loaded to there limit. they are carrying more the weight burden.
this video of 2014 from Crimea. that gives idea how long they are preparing for this kind of approach.
 
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