The War in the Ukraine

[Phead128]

Your economy will reach a breaking point much sooner with incremental decreases in the working population. Who will farm the food? Drive the trucks? Maintain the utilities. Ukraine has and needs over 256,000 to maintain its utilities alone. The fact that millions already left the country is the nation's by far the biggest economic damage. Its telling that the biggest refugee recipient is Russia. Plus there is a good fraction of the population that is for the Russian side, even fighting for it and has or planning to move to it. Do not forget the DPR and LPR are Ukrainians fighting a civil war.

A proper analysis would account for the active male population necessary for capitulation due to severe economic degradation.

France in WW1 had a comparable population (40M) and lost 10% of active male population (1.3 Million male deaths) and still kept on fighting.
At the current Ukrainian death rate loss of 60-70K per 9 months, and Ukrainian population of 30M, it would take 12.2 Years to match WW1- French-level deaths, and they will keep on fighting.

So in conclusion, any strategy predicated on the aspirational capitulation of Ukraine based on attrition of lives/economic activity alone is a losing strategy, and mathematically doesn't hold up. You are much more likely to be successful if you just conquer the damn country, than to attrite it to surrender via economic collapse.

 

[Zichan]

Even at the current reduced tempo, if you believe the numbers Western think tanks are putting out, the VKS is doing like 200 sorties a day. Not that bad really. USAF did like 300 sorties a day in Iraq and that was with transport aircraft and everything not just combat jets.

In the Gulf War, the Coalition flew over 116,000 sorties in a six week period. That comes out to slightly over 2,700 sorties per day. It's a night and day comparison.

Source:

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[gelgoog]

The battlespace in the Gulf War has no comparison whatsoever. That was being fought over tiny Kuwait. A place smaller than Kherson Oblast.

 

[baykalov]

"NATO is studying the issue of resuming the production of Soviet-era shells in the Czech Republic,Slovakia and Bulgaria to assist Ukraine"-Antony Blinken

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U.S. newspaper the New York Times earlier reported that small NATO member states have exhausted their potential to supply arms to Ukraine. According to the publication, NATO countries are discussing investments in old factories in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria to resume production of Soviet-era shells for Ukraine’s Soviet-era artillery arsenal.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg previously called on the alliance to increase production of weapons to support Ukraine, as NATO has exhausted most of its stockpiles of weapons and ammunition.

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From another article in the New York Times:

One of the Pentagon’s frequent concerns is that the Ukrainians are firing ammunition at an unsustainable rate — especially in places like Bakhmut — under the false assumption that the West’s supply of ordnance is unlimited, said the U.S. defense official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

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France admits unofficially that it can no longer supply weapons to Kyiv due to problems with its own stocks" - Politico

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598248205527183361

 

[Abominable]

The battlespace in the Gulf War has no comparison whatsoever. That was being fought over tiny Kuwait. A place smaller than Kherson Oblast.

So bigger country equals less sorties?

If Ukrainians SAMs are the problem why not utilise su-57s?

 

[gelgoog]

So bigger country equals less sorties?

Most of the deep strikes into Iraq in the Gulf War were back when the war started. But most air combat operations were close to Coalition airbases. So you are telling me you find it hard to comprehend that the closer to the airbases you are the faster you can do the combat mission and launch again?

If Ukrainians SAMs are the problem why not utilise su-57s?

What all four of them? What good would that do. A single artillery howitzer can probably dish out more damage. Again with regards to the Gulf War, Iraq had way worse air defenses than Ukraine has, they had 1960s era S-125, S-75, and their most modern systems were the export grade Kub and Osa in small numbers. Ukraine has huge numbers of Soviet Union S-300, Buk, Osa, Tunguska, etc. There is some evidence they had help from the West upgrading the electronics on at least some of these air defenses including radars. And they are getting data on the location of Russian air assets from US AWACS and ELINT aircraft flying around their border. A lot of the time they operate with radars turned off and only enable them when Russian aircraft are flying above. They hide SAM TELs inside buildings. The Buk and Osa also have optical target tracking so you cannot detect their radar emissions in that mode. Because there are none. Good luck trying to fight with your hands tied behind your back like that. If it was a war against NATO then those AWACS and ELINT aircraft would be dead meat, R-37M fodder, and the reconnaissance satellites would be fair targets for ASAT.

 

[pmc]

So bigger country equals less sorties?

If Ukrainians SAMs are the problem why not utilise su-57s?

these SAMs are not the problem thats why Su-25 and attack chopper exist. I will not be surprized that Russia deliberately not want to destroy these medium range batteries as it want to see the human supply chain that interact with these batteries. only after this utility is done they are picked up. its really 5D chess type war.
most videos of attack choppers carrying atleast one external fuel tank that reduce there payload.
so we can conclude want that they want to put safety of airbase as priority.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

Take away the rocket pod attacks by Su25s and cruise missile strikes by naval warships, land launchers and bombers, what is the rest of the VKS doing?

VKS is doing this here:

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Su-35 dropping dumb bombs at altitudes less than 100 meters. A third world air force would do better than the VKS.

In the Gulf War, the Coalition flew over 116,000 sorties in a six week period. That comes out to slightly over 2,700 sorties per day. It's a night and day comparison.

Source:

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I think he meant the 2003 invasion and not the Gulf War.

And they say that war is won with logistics. The Ukrainians having a situation with supply.

From @milchronicles
The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Svatovo and Kreminnaya is stalling due to a shortage of ammunition: details of

Due to the shortage of artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive not modern weapons, but foreign 105 mm M101 guns, produced since 1941. The shells for these guns do not have the required efficiency and are consumed 15 times faster than 152 mm ammunition, which only exacerbates the shortage of ammunition.

The image of the M101 appearing with the AFU on the front line is absolute proof that the Ukrainians are without the M777, this proves the losses and claims of recent Lancet attacks by the Russians that you yourself posted here and some doubted it, in addition to showing that the Ukraine is not this fully-supplied NATO army with effective weapons.

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[gelgoog]

You guys see people taking pictures of low flying Su-35 and assume all strikes are like that. Even RUSI says Russia is using Kh-29 and Kh-59.

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"Throughout the war, most Russian airstrikes have been against pre-designated targets with unguided bombs and rockets. The Su-34 fleet has regularly also fired stand-off missiles such as the Kh-29 and Kh-59 against fixed targets, and Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters have regularly fired Kh-31P and Kh-58 anti-radiation missiles to suppress and target Ukrainian SAM radars."

 

[Sinnavuuty]

You guys see people taking pictures of low flying Su-35 and assume all strikes are like that. Even RUSI says Russia is using Kh-29 and Kh-59.

I can answer you using your own comment with the source you mention. The answer:

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"Throughout the war, most Russian airstrikes have been against pre-designated targets with unguided bombs and rockets.

Next point:

The Su-34 fleet has regularly also fired stand-off missiles such as the Kh-29 and Kh-59 against fixed targets, and Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters have regularly fired Kh-31P and Kh-58 anti-radiation missiles to suppress and target Ukrainian SAM radars."

Regular can be set to any sustained rate of fire, whether it be 1 guided missile strike per day up to 50 guided missile strikes per day. The source itself claims that most sorties are with bombs and unguided rockets, which means that stand-off attack with bombs and guided missiles are a small portion of all the actual sorties that the VKS conducts in Ukraine. If the VKS conducts one sortie with guided munitions and the rest of the 199 sorties with unguided munitions during 100 days in a war, the VKS will be attacking regularly with guided munitions, but at a very small rate, derisory.