The War in the Ukraine

[Biscuits]

I think Russia holds the air force in reserve and is (overly?) cautious because they are constantly expecting NATO to attack openly and if so, they need all their planes and solid defensive lines to hold until they can mobilize and recieve massive arms support from allies.

I was one of those who believed Russia should have held Kherson no matter the cost, because they need the land in order to strike towards Odessa direction in the future. But now I'm not so sure, Ukraine got back Kherson yet the situation for them seems worse than ever.

 

[sheogorath]

Based on what UVDL said, “over 20000 civilians were killed” in Ukraine. As sad as that it is, I expected much worse based on the daily reports in my news feeds. It’s probably too early at this point to come up with accurate figures.

This number conflicts with the UN's reports though. Civilian casualties sit at around 17.000, with +6000 dead and +10.000 wounded

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Your economy will reach a breaking point much sooner with incremental decreases in the working population. Who will farm the food? Drive the trucks? Maintain the utilities

Without electricity and and fuel being redirected to the war effort, there is no much work to do as it is.

 

[Tam]

Artillery bombardment by the LPR.

The subject matter of the video isn't as important as compared to where it was taken from. This looks like high ground, not from a drone, an indication that this LPR unit taking the video and shooting the artillery has taken a favorable high position that's exposed Ukrainian positions to artillery and mortar fire.

 

[sheogorath]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Apparently the Ukranians are facing a brutal onslaught just for fun as, the city is of little strategic value and the offensive in the area is just a vanity push. Because that's what you do.

Unlike Ukraine's retaking of Snake Island who has achieved so little most people forgot about.

Talk about how it could serve as staging point for a push towards Kramatorsk?. Nah, its just vanity.

 

[Tam]

And they say that war is won with logistics. The Ukrainians having a situation with supply.

From @milchronicles


The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Svatovo and Kreminnaya is stalling due to a shortage of ammunition: details of

the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed the offensive scheduled for November in the Kupyansky and Krasnolimansky directions due to an artillery crisis.

Checking the combat readiness of the 92nd and 80th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Svatov region showed that units armed with self-propelled and towed guns are experiencing serious shell starvation and cannot participate in major offensives.

According to the Military Chronicle, the greatest deficit is associated with artillery shells of 122 and 152 mm caliber, as well as with the delivery and use of NATO caliber shells (155 mm). A particularly difficult situation with ammunition is in units using 203-mm Pion guns. Shells for these guns were not produced in Ukraine, and their number was strictly limited.

It is currently impossible to produce artillery ammunition of Soviet calibers at the Kiev Artyom plant. The enterprise cannot work in conditions of energy shortage in Ukraine and constant missile attacks on the country's military infrastructure.

In the 25th and 95th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Novovodyanoe (35 km north of Kremennaya), the situation is different. The units are depleted due to high casualties and gun wear. About 30-40% of self-propelled and towed guns have been destroyed or require repair, another 30% have already been sent for repair and decommissioned. For the remaining shells of 155 mm caliber, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kremennaya do not have enough guns.

Due to the shortage of artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive not modern weapons, but foreign 105 mm M101 guns, produced since 1941. The shells for these guns do not have the required efficiency and are consumed 15 times faster than 152 mm ammunition, which only exacerbates the shortage of ammunition.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot promptly replenish ammunition from old depots in the nearest regions: most of the RAV depots in the Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv and Chernihiv regions were destroyed by high-precision weapons.

Shells that can be delivered to artillery units have expired storage periods. The newest long shelf life ammunition was produced in the late 1980s and shows signs of hull failure, leading to incidents. Since the beginning of October, in the howitzer division of the 25th brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least three fatal incidents with a shell explosion in the breech of a 122-mm D-30 gun have been recorded.

The November thaw, the shortage of heavy equipment for transporting ammunition, and the activity of Russian Orlan-30 drones, which aim rocket artillery and Su-25 attack aircraft at the surviving convoys of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depriving Ukrainian forces of the opportunity to form strike group.

 

[drowingfish]

sounds like battle of attrition is taking its toll. i imagine russia is likely doing a bit better in terms of having artillery tubes and shells available to their units. they are likely fairly self-reliant but i wonder how much help they are getting from DPRK?

if there is a constant supply of artillery tubes and shells, and with russian lines reinforced with fresh infantry and armor as a result of the 300k draft, ukraine will have to suffer many more casualties this winter. being constantly destroyed by fire on the front and in the rear, they will surely be pushed to conduct offensives to disrupt russia's rhythm, but if russian lines are no longer left undermanned then this would be a suicide mission.

 

[Atomicfrog]

And they say that war is won with logistics. The Ukrainians having a situation with supply.

From @milchronicles


The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Svatovo and Kreminnaya is stalling due to a shortage of ammunition: details of

the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed the offensive scheduled for November in the Kupyansky and Krasnolimansky directions due to an artillery crisis.

Checking the combat readiness of the 92nd and 80th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Svatov region showed that units armed with self-propelled and towed guns are experiencing serious shell starvation and cannot participate in major offensives.

According to the Military Chronicle, the greatest deficit is associated with artillery shells of 122 and 152 mm caliber, as well as with the delivery and use of NATO caliber shells (155 mm). A particularly difficult situation with ammunition is in units using 203-mm Pion guns. Shells for these guns were not produced in Ukraine, and their number was strictly limited.

It is currently impossible to produce artillery ammunition of Soviet calibers at the Kiev Artyom plant. The enterprise cannot work in conditions of energy shortage in Ukraine and constant missile attacks on the country's military infrastructure.

In the 25th and 95th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Novovodyanoe (35 km north of Kremennaya), the situation is different. The units are depleted due to high casualties and gun wear. About 30-40% of self-propelled and towed guns have been destroyed or require repair, another 30% have already been sent for repair and decommissioned. For the remaining shells of 155 mm caliber, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kremennaya do not have enough guns.

Due to the shortage of artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive not modern weapons, but foreign 105 mm M101 guns, produced since 1941. The shells for these guns do not have the required efficiency and are consumed 15 times faster than 152 mm ammunition, which only exacerbates the shortage of ammunition.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot promptly replenish ammunition from old depots in the nearest regions: most of the RAV depots in the Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv and Chernihiv regions were destroyed by high-precision weapons.

Shells that can be delivered to artillery units have expired storage periods. The newest long shelf life ammunition was produced in the late 1980s and shows signs of hull failure, leading to incidents. Since the beginning of October, in the howitzer division of the 25th brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least three fatal incidents with a shell explosion in the breech of a 122-mm D-30 gun have been recorded.

The November thaw, the shortage of heavy equipment for transporting ammunition, and the activity of Russian Orlan-30 drones, which aim rocket artillery and Su-25 attack aircraft at the surviving convoys of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depriving Ukrainian forces of the opportunity to form strike group.

But they still arbitrary spend ammunitons on civilian infrastructures in Donetsk... Clearly strange, it's like chain of command doesn't control all the decision or they have a high level of loathe that they prefer shoting at Ukrainians civilians than using their ammunitions where it counts.

sounds like battle of attrition is taking its toll. i imagine russia is likely doing a bit better in terms of having artillery tubes and shells available to their units. they are likely fairly self-reliant but i wonder how much help they are getting from DPRK?

if there is a constant supply of artillery tubes and shells, and with russian lines reinforced with fresh infantry and armor as a result of the 300k draft, ukraine will have to suffer many more casualties this winter. being constantly destroyed by fire on the front and in the rear, they will surely be pushed to conduct offensives to disrupt russia's rhythm, but if russian lines are no longer left undermanned then this would be a suicide mission.

They could ever push toward Belgorov at this rate... they have tried it this week in direction of Shebekino I think. It start to look like desperation ot maybe buying time for reinforcements to crawl to the front.


MOD EDIT: Merged 2 back to back replies into a single message. Please use the multi-qoute option going forward

 

[plawolf]

where you get this information? Ukraine itself admitted that there are about 450 aircraft and 430 choppers in the battlefield
This first battlefield where combat aircraft and combat helicopters given equal importance from the start.
among those 450 aircrafts most of them will be Su-25SM. its all part of low altitude attack pattern that no one has applied on this scale.
Ukraine has been unable to capture any number of Russian pilots relative to thousands of sorties.

the guided missile part is 7,000 by early October. since most of Su-25SM will be using rockets and unguided bombs that will be multiple of that numbers.


Su-25 have been given extensive training over the years.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, if the VKS was pulling its weight, Ukraine wouldn’t be an artillery war.

Take away the rocket pod attacks by Su25s and cruise missile strikes by naval warships, land launchers and bombers, what is the rest of the VKS doing?

Helicopters pulling equal weight as fixed wing fastjets is a sign of how badly the VKS is underperforming rather than how much the rotor wing helicopters are over performing.

Even for the helicopters, most of the time they are lobbing rockets from afar rather than using guided munitions due to the prevalence of western MANPADs on the frontlines. That limits the effectiveness of their fires massively. Hence why artillery is doing most of the tactical level heavy lifting. That’s just a fact plain for all to see.

 

[pmc]

Please, if the VKS was pulling its weight, Ukraine wouldn’t be an artillery war.

it has made NATO outside Ukraine borders, Ukraine airforce practically grounded on such large area with little investment.

Take away the rocket pod attacks by Su25s and cruise missile strikes by naval warships, land launchers and bombers, what is the rest of the VKS doing?

The point i am making this Su-25, Attack Choppers and cruise missiles were decisions made early on. This how they want to conduct this war. it is too early to judge the outcome of this strategy but it seem sound that not much loss of pilots.

Helicopters pulling equal weight as fixed wing fastjets is a sign of how badly the VKS is underperforming rather than how much the rotor wing helicopters are over performing.

Attack choppers are part of procurement and it will increase in quantity not withstanding that it need two pilots as compared to one pilot of a modern fighter. This is how much importance they give to attack choppers. it is part of doctrine.

Even for the helicopters, most of the time they are lobbing rockets from afar rather than using guided munitions due to the prevalence of western MANPADs on the frontlines. That limits the effectiveness of their fires massively. Hence why artillery is doing most of the tactical level heavy lifting. That’s just a fact plain for all to see.

only videos for the uninformed they only show rockets. i am sure plenty of ATGMs. there was Ka-52 test with some thing like 21 ATGMs.
western manpads are totally ineffective considering the sorties they are receiving. There is no data released of Attack chopper sorties but it will be more than combat aircraft of what they disclosed for combat fighter. as i saw one of interview of intensity of chopper operation.

 

[gelgoog]

Please, if the VKS was pulling its weight, Ukraine wouldn’t be an artillery war.
Take away the rocket pod attacks by Su25s and cruise missile strikes by naval warships, land launchers and bombers, what is the rest of the VKS doing?
Helicopters pulling equal weight as fixed wing fastjets is a sign of how badly the VKS is underperforming rather than how much the rotor wing helicopters are over performing.

Even at the current reduced tempo, if you believe the numbers Western think tanks are putting out, the VKS is doing like 200 sorties a day. Not that bad really. USAF did like 300 sorties a day in Iraq and that was with transport aircraft and everything not just combat jets.
The huge amount of MANPADS and SAMs in Ukraine mean the VKS is avoiding doing deep strikes. Ground strike aircraft like Su-34 also cannot perform at their best since because of the SAM threat they are forced to do low altitude attacks. At low altitude the enemy cannot spot them except when they are right on top of them, but the Su-34 also cannot spot the enemy at long distance easily. Because the Su-34 is mostly doing low altitude attacks at short ranges, they are using gravity bombs. If anything I think this conflict shows the dire need for a modern Su-25 replacement and longer range strike options for helicopters which they can use outside MANPADS range.

Even for the helicopters, most of the time they are lobbing rockets from afar rather than using guided munitions due to the prevalence of western MANPADs on the frontlines. That limits the effectiveness of their fires massively. Hence why artillery is doing most of the tactical level heavy lifting. That’s just a fact plain for all to see.

Well artillery will always have way more volume in dishing out damage than aviation that is just how things roll.