The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Looks like the U.S capability to supply Ukraine with weapons is diminishing pretty fast. The U.S. has a lot of quality weapons but quality also means more complex to make, quantity has a quality all its own, so is a problem for the Ukrainians if the Russians grind their forces faster that can be replenish. In the good ol days you would have China flooding Ukraine with cheap affordable easy to made weapons in large quantities, I say Ukraine only because the Russians are to proud to procure Chinese weapons. But thanks to the Americans the Chinese are providing to no one.

Seems like a really verbose way of saying "we are not really sure if we want to keep running low of our own stockpiles should we keep antagonizing China and we don't have the industrial capacity to produce them fast enough either".

The HIMARS entered into service in 2010, with around 540 of them made since then(according to the sourceless claim in wikipedia), so that leaves you with around 4 HIMARS a month. Of course, this is all just baseless ballpark speculation but if NATO can only produce between 30.000 to 70.000 rounds per year of something as basic as 155mm munition, big ticket items probably aren't that high on the output list either.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Looks like the U.S capability to supply Ukraine with weapons is diminishing pretty fast. The U.S. has a lot of quality weapons but quality also means more complex to make, quantity has a quality all its own, so is a problem for the Ukrainians if the Russians grind their forces faster that can be replenish. In the good ol days you would have China flooding Ukraine with cheap affordable easy to made weapons in large quantities, I say Ukraine only because the Russians are to proud to procure Chinese weapons. But thanks to the Americans the Chinese are providing to no one.
China can never trust Ukraine after they sent fascist agitators to aid terrorists in Hong Kong, support Taiwan independence and stole billions from Chinese investors. All this was unprovoked, China did nothing to Ukraine.

Ukrainians are also just as proud as Russians, don't be fooled. Actions, not words.

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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
China can never trust Ukraine after they sent fascist agitators to aid terrorists in Hong Kong, support Taiwan independence and stole billions from Chinese investors. All this was unprovoked, China did nothing to Ukraine.

Ukrainians are also just as proud as Russians, don't be fooled. Actions, not words.

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That is why I say the good old times, like when they sold weapons to both Iran and Iraq. Those days are gone.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
The U.S. military planners are not risking it.

US Denies Ukraine’s Request for Long-Range Missiles in Latest Arms Gift​

Ukraine can reach the “vast majority” of targets with what they already have, a Pentagon official says.​


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On the contrary, I see it as a great humiliation for Russia, they are openly saying that it does not need to send more sensitive equipment and longer-range missiles because they are satisfied with the results according to what has already been sent, that is, old Soviet bodywork and some modern missiles. This is the declaration by NATO and the US that they "are not taking the war seriously" emulating Putin himself who also declared in these same words.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
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Top Russian MP blasts Defense Ministry over Ukraine​

Russians should receive more information about what is actually happening at the frontlines of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, insists Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) Defense Committee.

Speaking on Soloviev Live on Wednesday, the Colonel General said the Russian Ministry of Defense should stop hiding information from citizens and be more truthful in its reports.

“No more lies. We’ve talked about this before. [RT Editor-in-Chief] Margarita Simonyan has spoken about this in length but, apparently, this has not reached the ears of some individual leaders,” Kartapolov said, noting how reports from the Soviet Information Bureau during the early months of the Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941 provided more information than what is being said in Russia’s Ministry of Defense reports today.

“In every report they said that somewhere we are retreating, somewhere we are stubbornly repelling the attacks of a superior enemy, somewhere we have left settlements,” the politician said, stressing that when people read the Soviet reports, they gained an understanding that the situation was difficult and that the country was in danger.

Kartapolov said that Russia is also in danger today and that the enemy is already on Russian land, referring to Belgorod Region, where, he claims, nearly all villages bordering Ukraine have been destroyed, while the city of Valuiki is under constant fire from Kiev’s forces.

The chairman lamented the fact that none of this information is being reported by official sources and people learn about these things from governors, telegram channels and military correspondents.

“The reports from the Ministry of Defense practically do not change their content,” Kartapolov noted, warning that Russians “are not stupid” and can see that they are not being allowed to learn even a portion of the actual truth.

“This can lead to a loss of credibility,” the deputy warned.

While the Russian Defense Ministry releases daily updates on its Telegram channel, reporting on the number of enemy combatants or equipment destroyed, it rarely indicates how many Russian service personnel are killed or injured, or how much military equipment is lost in the fighting.

The last time Moscow officially announced its losses was on September 21, when Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated that the Russian military had lost some 6,000 fighters since hostilities broke out in late February. According to the Ukrainian side, about 55,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.
Kartapolov said, noting how reports from the Soviet Information Bureau during the early months of the Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941 provided more information than what is being said in Russia’s Ministry of Defense reports today.

That’s interesting. He is saying the Soviets gave more information during the Nazi invasion than what the MOD is doing today. I don’t think this has been reported or mentioned anywhere yet in regards to Belgorod.

Kartapolov said that Russia is also in danger today and that the enemy is already on Russian land, referring to Belgorod Region, where, he claims, nearly all villages bordering Ukraine have been destroyed, while the city of Valuiki is under constant fire from Kiev’s forces.

Just what exactly are the Russians planning. We haven’t really heard much of anything on reserves being moved or any troops movement from the Russian side doing literally anything. There doesn’t really seem to be any troops in Ukraine either.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
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That’s interesting. He is saying the Soviets gave more information during the Nazi invasion than what the MOD is doing today. I don’t think this has been reported or mentioned anywhere yet in regards to Belgorod.



Just what exactly are the Russians planning. We haven’t really heard much of anything on reserves being moved or any troops movement from the Russian side doing literally anything. There doesn’t really seem to be any troops in Ukraine either.
If the report a few pages back about them getting annihilated in past exercises with PLA and they still seem to have the same problems today, it's possible that Russia in fact just never learned anything and successfully managed to integrate nothing useful from China at all.

Russian "pride" is an interesting thing. As an example, Russia has won every single tank biathlon, except as some videos of past events show, Chinese tanks are not focused on rough driving, but are very accurate on the move unlike any tank Russia has sent to the biathlon. So what does Russia do for future biathlons? Buy better FCS and stabilisers from China? Or simply dock points from the event about firing on the move until its irrelevant when it comes to scoring?

This mentality, people have mostly assumed it is limited to ceremonial events only, but maybe it wasn't.

Is it not a damning indictment to Russian tech when the most battlefield signficant donations of the whole war so far, was not NATO's IFVs nor artillery nor MLRS to Ukraine, but drones from IRAN to Russia, Iran, a country that is 2 generations behind America and 3 behind China when it comes to drones, was able to significantly increase Russian capabilities. Yet some Russian officials think they are military equals to China and torpedo their own military's ability to improve.

Russian economy is similar sized to Germany. At this level, they can't maintain a fully independent army that still managed to be cutting edge. The tech integration level Russia should have pursued vs China should have been on a similar level as UK or Germany vs USA.

Small wonder then that China is with 99% probability not borrowing any of its ISR to Russia right now either, because it would just be a band aid solution to an innate problem.

The clownery of attritional warfare against a neighbor with gdp/c literally worse than the poorest areas in Xinjiang will almost surely continue until the Russian perspective changes from an arrogant one to one focused on serving the people - which means maximum military efficiency, I.e. importing PLA platforms and roughly following PLA doctrines.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know if this is allowed to be posted here but the by the guy talking is they were left there with no CO fully geared and no training. Also @0:09 the translator says 50 when it should have said 500.

If you look closely one of the patches is a Wagner patch so this could be a stunt by Wagner mercs themselves maybe?
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
If the report a few pages back about them getting annihilated in past exercises with PLA and they still seem to have the same problems today, it's possible that Russia in fact just never learned anything and successfully managed to integrate nothing useful from China at all.

I know you already mentioned something similar further down your comment… but it’s hard to learn anything when you spent half your existence hitching your economy to the West.

Then 2014 happened and now you are spending the other half trying to preserve whatever remains. Then they finally ditched it 6 months ago. They basically wasted like 20-30 years of economic development.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
That’s very interesting. According to @siegecrossbow , Russia doesn’t do force on force training for large scale joint training.
I understand that Russian exercises has a lot of military theater going on when the Russians act out a pre-planned maneuver over several days, but it seems indeed Vostok 2018 is different:
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The two PLA armored battalions – one integrated heavy armored battalion (重型合成营) and an integrated medium-heavy battalion (中型合成营) with wheeled fighting vehicles – formed the bulk of the Chinese forces. Augmented by elements of helicopter, long-range artillery, Special Forces, and engineering units, the two PLA battalions were simulated as two brigades, which constituted the framework for an integrated army (军级架构). Both battalions belonged to the 78th Army of the PLA headquartered in Harbin, according to Chinese military
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.


In Tsugol, the PLA “army” was one of the six “armies” deployed in the field, all being represented by brigade-level forces (each of the five Russian “armies” was represented by a brigade of about 5,000 men). The PLA units were positioned as
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at the heart of the “red” triangle of the 29th and 35th Armies at the front and the 36th Army in the rear (see map below). This enabled the PLA “army” to engage in initial defensive maneuvers in coordination with the “red” armies (29th and 35th) against two “invading” “blue” armies (2nd and 41st), as well as for the final counterattacks together with the “red” 36th Army and “red” paratroopers.


Despite the asymmetry in the forces involved in Tsugol (five Russian corps and one PLA corps), the Tsugol exercises were directed by a
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consisting of staff members of Russia’s East Military District and PLA’s Northern Theater. PLA’s Joint Staff Department (联合参谋部), too, sent its staff to Tsugol. “The PLA is not a junior player (解放军不是配角),” claimed a Shanghai-based Chinese
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outlet as it referred to the joint command and the centrality of the PLA deployment in the “red” formation.

On this occasion force on force training did seem to occur. One of the PLA battalion was a medium combined arm battalion standing in for a medium combined arm brigade. As a lot of us here on this site knows a PLA medium combined arms brigade has Type 08 wheeled IVF and Type 11 wheeled assault gun to form the spearhead. Hence why this exercise came to mind when I was thinking how to explain the recent Russian weakness against the AFU counterattack and hence why I was interested in how much of AFU's vehicles in the counterattack are technicals vs how many are MRAPs. Technical mounted troops would be conceptually similar to PLA light combined arms brigade or US infantry BCT equipped with Mengshi/Humvee (and we don't have good data on how Russians can stand up to those). Where as MRAP being better protected could be thought of as discount medium combined arms brigade or Stryker BCT and we know from this Vostok 2018 result that Russians have trouble dealing with them.

While yes, it would have been politically easy to dismiss that result as "well yeah, of course the blue OPFOR was meant to lose, they were out numbered 4 to 2". Nevertheless if indeed the PLA medium combined arm battalion ended up wiping out a whole blue mechanized infantry regiment by themselves in 24 hours alarm bells should have been ringing.
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
That’s very interesting. According to @siegecrossbow , Russia doesn’t do force on force training for large scale joint training.

Yes, this is a myth. Joint exercises with Russia like Vostok and Qintongxia are not force on for exercises ala the Stride Exercises in Zhurihe. The news of Russian units getting obliterated in Vostok are a myth invented by military enthusiasts writing for Sina. In the actual exercise, Russian and Chinese troops were fighting on the same team against pre-arranged targets.
 
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