The War in the Ukraine

[Abominable]

Won't be that easy. At the minimum Putin will have to wave the nuclear stick a lot harder for that to happen. I'm talking Cuban Missile Crisis level where afterwards people will be glad they're still alive and not rapidly expanding cloud of plasma. When that happens then Ukraine will seem insignificant in comparison.

They don't need to force the Ukrainians to accept it, just put the offer on the table. Given the POW releases a week ago I'm sure some backchannel negotiations have been happening.

I personally think it's a bad deal for both sides. Ukrainians think they have the initiative right now and Russia has achieved too few of their goals to call this war a success.

 

[plawolf]

I never understood pushing for referendums in provinces where you have not established full-spectrum control (i.e. Donestk and Zaporizhzhia provinces). Doesn't sound representative if only half the population on these two provinces get to vote?

Russia should have established full military control over these two provinces before starting a referendum, just like they did in Crimea in 2014 referendum.

I’m sure that was the original plan. But they have failed on the battlefield so now needs to hold the vote with what territory they hold to allow them to deploy conscripts there.

I think the plan would have been to use professional soldiers and local militia to take those territories; then use referendum to annex them; then deploy conscripts to garrison them and free up the professional and militia soldiers to advance further west.

I think a key indicator of how well or badly Russia is doing in Ukraine would be to see what they use all their freshly mobilised conscripts for.

If they use them for garrison duty and defensive operations to help firm up their lines, then I would say the Russians are doing ok. Their plans are a little behind schedule, but overall on track to achieve their major strategic objectives in Ukraine.

If they use conscripts as support or even main force for offensive operations, then they are not doing so great and are at risk of failing in their strategic objectives since sending in the conscripts for such operations would likely result in significantly higher Russian military casualties and would not be something to do if they had better options. That’s basically throwing the proverbial kitchen sink in, and is dangerously close to needing direct military intervention from a certain friendly foreign power territory.

 

[Temstar]

They don't need to force the Ukrainians to accept it, just put the offer on the table. Given the POW releases a week ago I'm sure some backchannel negotiations have been happening.

I personally think it's a bad deal for both sides. Ukrainians think they have the initiative right now and Russia has achieved too few of their goals to call this war a success.

In order for that deal to work all supplies coming to Ukraine from Poland must be cut off. It's not sufficient that EU countries no longer provide aid to Ukraine because the majority of aid is actually coming from the US at the moment. So in order for the deal to materialize EU forces will have to physically shut the Polish border. I don't think Germans have the necessary strength and I don't think Macron have the balls.

That said, I strongly feel behind the scene something like this was being worked on and might not have been too far off, which is why the pipes were blown up. Now that the gas card was taken away chances for this deal is much lower.

 

[sheogorath]

Now that the gas card was taken away chances for this deal is much lower

Now instead of having the options between getting blackmailed by Russia or the US, they are forced to accept getting blackmailed by the US.

 

[Temstar]

Now instead of having the options between getting blackmailed by Russia or the US, they are forced to accept getting blackmailed by the US.

That's right, it was very much a threat from the US too. They're basically saying "oh so Russia threaten you with cut off gas and you fold like that? Well I can threaten you too and I can do it much more creatively".

Sad state of affairs, but that's the price of spending all your tax money on good social welfare and neglect your defense and leave it all up to someone else - when the time comes you won't be in charge of your own fate.

Particularly considering you have France in that mob who actually do have their own nuclear weapons. When Putin and Biden were waving their nuclear stick around at the start of the year Macron should have detonated a bomb on some uninhabited island somewhere just to remind everyone that he's got the bomb too and not afraid to use it.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Now instead of having the options between getting blackmailed by Russia or the US, they are forced to accept getting blackmailed by the US.

Blowing up the pipelines might have made things easier for the US and Russia because the Germans and the French are now cut from the negotiation/backroom talks.

Probably means the US and Russia will have to cut up the European energy market with the US probably now taking the biggest share of that market. Russia might decide to just cut its loses and focus on Afro-Asia given how Europe from now on will only shrink in size and importance. European Industry will move to US or China so either way Russia will get a share from that given both China and US are still buying energy products from Russia.

 

[baykalov]

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels:

 

[Temstar]

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels:

View attachment 98515View attachment 98516

Time to hold on tight, here comes the nuclear brinkmanship.

 

[baykalov]

Zelensky just said that Ukraine will not hold any negotiations with Russia while Putin is president.

Zelensky again spoke in Russian and called on Russians in Russia to oust Putin and "take the path of democracy and peace".

 

[Abominable]

According to pro-Russian Telegram channels:

View attachment 98515View attachment 98516

If they're talking about Ukraine joining NATO there's a good chance something has been agreed. Ukraine joining NATO if the fighting continued would make no sense.

I think Putin is making a mistake if he thinks taking only 4 territories of Ukraine makes up for Ukraine joining NATO. At the very least Kharkov and Odessa should be taken. The west will turn the Ukraine into an Israel, and it'll forever be a problem. Deal with the problem now and don't leave it for future generations.

Putin also specifically mentioned the people who died in Odessa in his speech today, it would not look good if he then abandons them.