PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Biscuits]

Honestly (and if my thoughts are of similar to his), Patchwork's strategy is basically what I personally envisioned the PLA would do in a Taiwan scenario, coupled with amphibious assaults against outlying islands currently under ROC administration (i.e. Kinmen and Matsu) within the first week or two of PLA's military campaign against Taiwan.

However, I disagree with the "short air/rocket campaign" part. The PLA CMC should assume the worst in their planning, i.e. the ROC military and the ROC administration hunkers down and prepare to fight the PLA to the last Taiwanese men, women and children. That means the PLA should replicate the Operation Desert Storm on Taiwan, but on an even larger scale; swifter and greater intensity; and similar duration of time as the Coalition Forces did on Iraq in February 1991. This would require the coordination and effort across not just the PLAAF and PLARF, but also the PLAN (and most importantly, PLASSF) as well.

China only has one shot at this - there are no second chances.

Furthermore, anyone who still believe that the PLA would attempt outright amphibious assault on Taiwan itself on Day One of their military campaign against Taiwan should go just stand and face any wall nearby and repent.

Funny thing is, China doesn't have only 1 shot at this. Beijing's economy never depended even a little bit on having troops on Taiwan Island anyways.

As long as China has a large and innovative middle class driving a consumption based economy using mostly their own industries, they can keep pumping out cutting edge militaries at will. As an example, see Germany during the interwar years.
And of course due to nukes but also sheer size/geography, the mainland itself can never be defeated nor even attacked in an impactful manner. China as the world's core economy/industry is here to stay for centuries, just like even after repeated defeats and massive self sabotage wars, all the ex-Imperial Europe regimes still have relatively powerful industries in their own right.

Even if we say US does a perfect bloodless takeover of Taiwan ala what Russia did in Crimea 2014. China will spend some time building up, putting huge resources into the military and 5-10 years later, a counteroffensive will come, this time with a much larger military.

America's plan to steal Taiwan is an extremely shortsighted one. But US operates in electoral cycles of 4 years, and whoever manages to successfully invade Taiwan will probably be given the title of greatest US president ever, since or even including Washington and Lincoln. So the idea of invasion is irresistible for them.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

It has been known for a fairly long time that PLA is overall better equipped than RU army, in some sectors by far.

Tactical losses for Russia will make them more open to seeking improvements from China.

And Russia needs a truly multifaceted, 2020s era military, so it can help deter conflict from USA.

I've long thought that the PLA and RU military would benefit from projects using pooled resources similar to how US has made NATO follow them with the F-35. A common design between both militaries, integrating the best from late Soviet cutting edge research and China's new tech, using Russia's strength in resources and workers integrated with China's industrial expertise.

The goal of such projects would ostentibly be to shore up the Russian military into a formidable force in both quality and quantity, while ensuring the final works of the USSR in tech can have their development continued in China, where funding is abundant. It would also help boost the numbers of the PLA.

Some form of strategical "victory" is assured for Russia as long as they mobilize all their forces. But Russian shortcomings on the tactical level will hopefully shatter illusions of Russian military independence and make them pursue collective defense. China likewise should not have any reservations about sharing their latest developments (within reason) with Russia.

I wouldn't bet on Russian elites making this necessary and existential move since there's a very large chunk of it's leadership that are dismissive of China’s scientific and military capabilities. While they have begun to recognize China’s entrepreneurial skills they're still somewhat dubious of Chinese tech ingenuity not to mention the persistent belief in Chinese made deficiencies.

This latest loss of Russia in Ukraine should wake them the f...d up or they're going to be waking up in a rather worse situation that they'll come to regret sooner rather than later.

 

[Minm]

Honestly (and if my thoughts are of similar to his), Patchwork's strategy is basically what I personally envisioned the PLA would do in a Taiwan scenario, coupled with amphibious assaults against outlying islands currently under ROC administration (i.e. Kinmen and Matsu) within the first week or two of PLA's military campaign against Taiwan.

However, I disagree with the "short air/rocket campaign" part. The PLA CMC should assume the worst in their planning, i.e. the ROC military and the ROC administration hunkers down and prepare to fight the PLA to the last Taiwanese men, women and children. That means the PLA should replicate the Operation Desert Storm on Taiwan, but on an even larger scale; swifter and greater intensity; and similar duration of time as the Coalition Forces did on Iraq in February 1991. This would require the coordination and effort across not just the PLAAF and PLARF, but also the PLAN (and most importantly, PLASSF) as well.

I think everyone would agree that there'll be a shock and awe bombing campaign plus blockade for some time, the only question is how soon the invasion begins after the resumption of hostilities. My assumption is that the Chinese government wants to avoid having to fight the US (and Japan) if possible, because such a conflict would just be too destructive. If your goal is to avoid other countries getting involved in the conflict, then speed is necessary. Kinmen and Matsu on day 1, Penghu a few days later and the main island after 1-2 weeks or so. If you can destroy all targets in a week, why wait? By the way, after a week of nonstop shelling of the entire island, ROC soldiers are going to be severely sleep deprived.

The systems that the PLA has chosen to invest in can give us a hint on what they're thinking: thousands of type 05 and type 08 amphibious vehicles that can swim to Taiwan and hundreds of type 15 light tanks that can be airdropped. There's also the development of the PHL-16 rocket artillery that can provide direct fire support from the mainland to an invasion force plus thousands of ballistic missiles that can be launched against strategic targets from further away. China is clearly investing in the capability to land on Taiwanese beaches even in the face of ROC fighters trying to stop them. There's also huge investment in the navy, which gives China the capability to impose a blockade at the same time. Why would China invest in all these assets if they aren't considering a quick invasion?

It's also not as if the whole island needs to be taken. If only the northern half falls and the PLA can use the ports there, then the remaining defenders will know that they're fighting for a lost cause and are likely to surrender or attempt a guerrilla war (unless American invaders are pouring onto the island already).

Funny thing is, China doesn't have only 1 shot at this. Beijing's economy never depended even a little bit on having troops on Taiwan Island anyways.

As long as China has a large and innovative middle class driving a consumption based economy using mostly their own industries, they can keep pumping out cutting edge militaries at will. As an example, see Germany during the interwar years.
And of course due to nukes but also sheer size/geography, the mainland itself can never be defeated nor even attacked in an impactful manner. China as the world's core economy/industry is here to stay for centuries, just like even after repeated defeats and massive self sabotage wars, all the ex-Imperial Europe regimes still have relatively powerful industries in their own right.

Even if we say US does a perfect bloodless takeover of Taiwan ala what Russia did in Crimea 2014. China will spend some time building up, putting huge resources into the military and 5-10 years later, a counteroffensive will come, this time with a much larger military.

America's plan to steal Taiwan is an extremely shortsighted one. But US operates in electoral cycles of 4 years, and whoever manages to successfully invade Taiwan will probably be given the title of greatest US president ever, since or even including Washington and Lincoln. So the idea of invasion is irresistible for them.

Exactly, even if there are American troops on Chinese soil and an official mutual assistance treaty between ROC and the US that would still only be a reversion to the status of the 1960s. Taiwan is going move across the Pacific, if the PLA fails, they can always try again a few decades later

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It has been known for a fairly long time that PLA is overall better equipped than RU army, in some sectors by far.

Tactical losses for Russia will make them more open to seeking improvements from China.

And Russia needs a truly multifaceted, 2020s era military, so it can help deter conflict from USA.

I've long thought that the PLA and RU military would benefit from projects using pooled resources similar to how US has made NATO follow them with the F-35. A common design between both militaries, integrating the best from late Soviet cutting edge research and China's new tech, using Russia's strength in resources and workers integrated with China's industrial expertise.

The goal of such projects would ostentibly be to shore up the Russian military into a formidable force in both quality and quantity, while ensuring the final works of the USSR in tech can have their development continued in China, where funding is abundant. It would also help boost the numbers of the PLA.

Some form of strategical "victory" is assured for Russia as long as they mobilize all their forces. But Russian shortcomings on the tactical level will hopefully shatter illusions of Russian military independence and make them pursue collective defense. China likewise should not have any reservations about sharing their latest developments (within reason) with Russia.

Russians need to accept that their ambitions are on land and their navy is not going to be power projecting and give up on shit like Lider class battlecruiser and retire the Kirovs/Slavas/Kuznetzov. Sell the Lider plans to China, PLAN might actually have a better use for it, otherwise it is just a PowerPoint and CAD project. All Russian ambitions are on land, wtf they need a battlecruiser for? SSNs, frigates and ground aviation to protect shores are what they really need for the navy, otherwise they need to pour their money into ground and air forces.

In ground warfare and they need to learn from China on ground warfare since the PLA has actually been successful in ground warfare in the post WW2 era while Russia has been quite a bit less successful, including losing Zhenbao Island to China.

The fastest reforms they can make are

1. Navy: retiring Kirovs and Slavas to focus on SSNs, frigates, LHD (for antisub), keeping their Tu-22M and Tu-160 fleet operational

2. Ground Force: buying machine tools from China to improve production of modernized T-90s, T-14s, Terminators, etc, introduce wheeled APC based artillery like PLL-09, buying more recon drones from China and buying more infantry weapons from China like NVG, radios, etc.

3. Air Force: buying AESA radars from China, hiring the designers of the J-11B and J-16 to improve their Su-27s and Su-30s, buying KJ-200s from China

4. Strategic: sharing satellite comms and early warning data with China, promoting dual GLONASS-Beidou chips.

5. Economic: start buying Chinese machine tools and semiconductor instruments yesterday while paying for it in oil/gas through pipelines. They needed Power of Siberia 2 10 years ago.

 

[Minm]

I wouldn't bet on Russian elites making this necessary and existential move since there's a very large chunk of it's leadership that are dismissive of China’s scientific and military capabilities. While they have begun to recognize China’s entrepreneurial skills they're still somewhat dubious of Chinese tech ingenuity not to mention the persistent belief in Chinese made deficiencies.

This latest loss of Russia in Ukraine should wake them the f...d up or they're going to be waking up in a rather worse situation that they'll come to regret sooner rather than later.

I don't think China can trust Russia so easily. Putin will die at some point and if he keeps failing in Ukraine, he might even be removed and who knows who'll take over after him. A country like Iran or North Korea is a much more reliable partner. If Iran's supreme leader dies, a new one will be chosen but the system won't really change much. If the North Korean leader dies, his son will become the new party leader, but he'll still rely on the party, so the system won't change. If the Saudi king dies, the crown prince will take over and the heir will be known well in advance so that other countries can judge the likely future foreign policy.

Russia is a simple dictatorship that pretends to be a western democracy. There's no system, it all depends on one man. So China should exploit all the technology Russia still has to offer and offer them advanced export versions of Chinese hardware, but China should never depend on Russia or use pooled resources for military research. The Russians will only slow down Chinese projects, corrupt individuals in Russia will betray secrets to the enemy and if 20 years from now Russia becomes US aligned they'll be in possession of Chinese military technology. Only countries with a sustainable political system can be reliable allies

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Russians need to accept that their ambitions are on land and their navy is not going to be power projecting and give up on shit like Lider class battlecruiser and retire the Kirovs/Slavas/Kuznetzov. Sell the Lider plans to China, PLAN might actually have a better use for it, otherwise it is just a PowerPoint and CAD project. All Russian ambitions are on land, wtf they need a battlecruiser for? SSNs, frigates and ground aviation to protect shores are what they really need for the navy, otherwise they need to pour their money into ground and air forces.

In ground warfare and they need to learn from China on ground warfare since the PLA has actually been successful in ground warfare in the post WW2 era while Russia has been quite a bit less successful, including losing Zhenbao Island to China.

The fastest reforms they can make are

1. Navy: retiring Kirovs and Slavas to focus on SSNs, frigates, LHD (for antisub), keeping their Tu-22M and Tu-160 fleet operational

2. Ground Force: buying machine tools from China to improve production of modernized T-90s, T-14s, Terminators, etc, introduce wheeled APC based artillery like PHL-08, buying more recon drones from China and buying more infantry weapons from China like NVG, radios, etc.

3. Air Force: buying AESA radars from China, hiring the designers of the J-11B and J-16 to improve their Su-27s and Su-30s, buying KJ-200s from China

4. Strategic: sharing satellite comms and early warning data with China, promoting dual GLONASS-Beidou chips.

5. Economic: start buying Chinese machine tools and semiconductor instruments yesterday while paying for it in oil/gas through pipelines. They needed Power of Siberia 2 10 years ago.

Lol good luck with that recommendation. It'll sooner receive a Greta meme like response of

Than for the Russians to admit some humility which isn't their strong suit based on my perception and impression of that country’s history.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I don't think China can trust Russia so easily. Putin will die at some point and if he keeps failing in Ukraine, he might even be removed and who knows who'll take over after him. A country like Iran or North Korea is a much more reliable partner. If Iran's supreme leader dies, a new one will be chosen but the system won't really change much. If the North Korean leader dies, his son will become the new party leader, but he'll still rely on the party, so the system won't change. If the Saudi king dies, the crown prince will take over and the heir will be known well in advance so that other countries can judge the likely future foreign policy.

Russia is a simple dictatorship that pretends to be a western democracy. There's no system, it all depends on one man. So China should exploit all the technology Russia still has to offer and offer them advanced export versions of Chinese hardware, but China should never depend on Russia or use pooled resources for military research. The Russians will only slow down Chinese projects, corrupt individuals in Russia will betray secrets to the enemy and if 20 years from now Russia becomes US aligned they'll be in possession of Chinese military technology. Only countries with a sustainable political system can be reliable allies

There is no liberal opposition in Russia though. #2 in the polls by far is CPRF, #3 is a satellite party of United Russia designed to spoil CPRF lmao.

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and if it wasn't for Yeltsin stealing the 1996 election from him, China-Russia relations would be even better and Russia would be much further ahead. I don't worry about Russia turning on China at all.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Lol good luck with that recommendation. It'll sooner receive a Greta meme like response of View attachment 97373

Than for the Russians to admit some humility which isn't their strong suit based on my perception and impression of that country’s history.

it's easy enough to spin and hide. Nobody gives a shit about components or machine tools until they don't have them, they can quietly import them and what comes out of the factories are Yasens, T-14s, Terminators, GLONASS chips, Su-30s, etc.

If asked they can just say that "machine tools are easily replaced from anyone, the critical design IP and materials is all Russian" and Chinese companies don't care, they just get paid and help a friend. Chinese companies even agree to be humiliated by Apple which says "only assembled in China, actually designed in California US of A", because they get paid, and Apple isn't even a friend.

 

[gelgoog]

Russians need to accept that their ambitions are on land and their navy is not going to be power projecting and give up on shit like Lider class battlecruiser and retire the Kirovs/Slavas/Kuznetzov.

The Lider battlecruiser design is relevant because the Russians have issues building large advanced gas turbine engines. Russia has no such issues with marine nuclear reactors.

Russia took 6 years to build the Sibir nuclear icebreaker with 25k tons displacement. In comparison they have taken in some cases 9 years to build Project 20380 corvettes with 2k tons displacement. There have been lots of delays with marine diesels and gas turbines but the nuclear propulsion projects have not had any delays. Well at least none which you can attribute to the nuclear reactor itself. Russia has the RITM-200 in service and is building the RITM-400. So the reactor R&D is basically a sunk cost. The nuclear industry is one of the few industries in Russia which actually works well and is not dysfunctional.

A large marine gas turbine would have to be derived from the PD-35 or NK-32 engine cores. The NK-32 engine production is all back ordered for Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 upgrades. Current production is like 4 engines a year. And the PD-35 is still under R&D and might not enter production until the decade is over. Without the nuclear propulsion you are basically looking at a navy without any cruisers. And as is even regular gas turbine engine production, M90 engine, is not large enough for the frigate program. Let alone for building larger quad engine destroyers. The cruiser program is supposed to aim at solving that.

Navy: retiring Kirovs and Slavas to focus on SSNs, frigates, LHD (for antisub), keeping their Tu-22M and Tu-160 fleet operational

Russia is lacking ships to such a degree I doubt the Slavas will be retired soon. You would need to see frigate production increase a lot and the issue is not lack of building ships, it is lack of production rate for components like engines and reduction gear. Only like in the last couple of years did UEC Saturn start delivering the M90. And production of reduction gear for the frigates is a major stumbling block as well with production being done at a former private company which just recently went bankrupt.

it's easy enough to spin and hide. Nobody gives a shit about components or machine tools until they don't have them, they can quietly import them and what comes out of the factories are Yasens, T-14s, Terminators, GLONASS chips, Su-30s, etc.

Russian military industry has been under sanctions from the West since 2014 annexation of Crimea. The biggest hit was losing former parts of the Soviet MIC which were still in Ukraine. It took a really long time, like 5 years, to replace most products and the production rate still is not quite there yet in several product categories.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Lol good luck with that recommendation. It'll sooner receive a Greta meme like response of View attachment 97373

Than for the Russians to admit some humility which isn't their strong suit based on my perception and impression of that country’s history.

Just found this Tweet and some of its replies that basically confirmed the point:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568700926948683776

Unroll:

The entire question of China providing aid to Russia feels sort of fake, now that I think about it. Even if China wanted to, what weaponry could really make a difference? Russia's problem right now is a lack of manpower at the front.

Moreover, all the really big advances in PRC weaponry have been in hi tech aeronaval weaponry that would take a long time to integrate. Russian and Chinese Flankers are now as different under the hood as YF-16s and Block 60 and 70/72 Vipers.

Not that the Russians could even employ aerospace weaponry fully given that the RuAF has been MIA after like the first week of the war, engaging in these useless one/two ship Su-25 strikes that are just wastes of kerosene. It would be better to just ground the RuAF at this point.

One of the noteworthy replies under the post is this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568758301487431680

Unroll:

China was never going to materially aid Russia. The whole narrative is classic yellow peril: Chinese are always up to no good and the reason we're not doing bad things XYZ now is either we're incapable or the good guys (the West) have deterred us.

Why would China materially aid an invasion that violates the core tenets of our vision for international order? We (China) spent tremendous resources to keep Taiwan from international recognition. Russia just sent army to an UN member state across demarcated borders.

China had excellent relations with Ukraine before the Motor Sich debacle. The public might love Russia as an Internet meme, but Chinese defense industry long preferred dealing with Ukrainians.

Xi'an and Shaanxi learnt a lot from working with Antonov on Y-9 and Y-20. Russians usually just tell us to shut up and listen. Here's what a senior Chinese aeronautical engineer wrote about working with Russians:

"In our dealings with them, they often showed [...]ingrained great power chauvinism, and deep-seated contempt and disdain for us, all of which affected the advancement and successful conclusion of the collaboration."

This is not me hating on Russia, I understand why they acted the way they acted. But I think a lot of actors in the Chinese system would be dead set against materially supporting Russia even without Western sanctions.

Honestly, Russia still thinks and behaves as if herself is still the Soviet Union (and that herself is the only one in this world that could go toe-to-toe with th United States), and still views China as some kind of a junior partner (just like how the Soviet Union under Stalin and Khruschev viewed China under Mao).

Yet, China today resembles nothing of China in the 1950s or 1960s. Although I suppose many in Russia still choose to live in the time period when they were the "Big Brotha" in Sino-Soviet/Russo relations.

Meanwhile, it is clear to everyone now that Russia wants to behave like a world nuclear superpower, but without the necessary population size, economic prowess and the industrial scale to back that behavior.