Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Luke Warmwar

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Before talking about this triggering AR, it’s helpful to compare with where it sits in comparison with previous crises.

We aren’t even at the ‘live fire rounds into the ocean’ stage. We have some footage of weaponry moving around, and some pointed posts on Twitter.

If AR’s coming, it will be unambiguous.

edit: also, this is my first post here. You guys have done a great job. When I started reading this morning, this thread was a quarter of the size. Btw is there any way to increase the number of comments shown per page?
 

Nobo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do you have any idea what you are talking about ? Once full on naval engagement starts, you won't even know what hit you and from where. This type of overconfidence is suicidal. We Indians too don't want a unipolar world; but you are hellbent on giving the US a chance.

What is the hurry when you are fast closing the gap ? It is just arrogance coming from new wealth earned too quickly. Go on ! Take them on; then wait for another 50 years or more.

Go for it ! Actually I don't think you live in the China mainland - easy for you to send other people to their deaths.
The US a chance? There is no such thing as US. There is no need to know. We all know this utopia is run by their people. I propose full scale DF41 solution. There is no problem in earning wealth quickly. There is an utopia that popped up over native land.

Time fo purification is long overdue. Why dont you sayyou lil daddy fire & see what happens to OnlyFans people & their transgender boys in costumes?
 

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
If I may be allowed a short comment, my completely uneducated guess is that nothing is going to happen. Pelosi is -probably- going to visit Taiwan, we will see a lot of posturing and saber rattling from both sides, but nothing of actual substance.

Whether she lands, or not though, this debacle IS going to worsen relations, with long term repercussions.
 

Barefoot

New Member
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If I may be allowed a short comment, my completely uneducated guess is that nothing is going to happen. Pelosi is -probably- going to visit Taiwan, we will see a lot of posturing and saber rattling from both sides, but nothing of actual substance.

This IS going to worsen relations of course, with long term repercussions. Whether she lands, or not. Just my honest opinion.

Have you been keeping up with the messages coming from Chinese officials?
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
I am Taiwanese, and let me tell you most people just want to live in peace. Even the majority of the people that elected this moron voted for her because of her promise to tackle economic inequality, intergenerational wealth gap, and social issues such as womens' rights and gay rights. There is so few people that vote for her in order to have her start a war. In any case, it seems the RoC tried to rescind the invitation at the last minute, but Pelosi is stubborn and wanted to go anyway. If war does happen, it is inevitable that some hardliners in the military will start firing back, even if many would surrender. But any sign of RoC forces firing back will invite a retaliation, and the rest of us will just become collateral damage. But hey that is just life...
You live near any airport? Any flights out of Taiwan could you find?
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Do you have any idea what you are talking about ? Once full on naval engagement starts, you won't even know what hit you and from where. This type of overconfidence is suicidal. We Indians too don't want a unipolar world; but you are hellbent on giving the US a chance.

What is the hurry when you are fast closing the gap ? It is just arrogance coming from new wealth earned too quickly. Go on ! Take them on; then wait for another 50 years or more.

Go for it ! Actually I don't think you live in the China mainland - easy for you to send other people to their deaths.

I do not wish for death on any civilian... not Taiwanese civilians either.

From which Indian source did you get details on this lightspeed missile of the Americans? Won't even know what hit you and from where. Trust me, this is going to be very true for US bases and carrier (along with their submarines and other warships). They won't really know what hit them but they'll have general directions.

Full scale war is of course dangerous! I'm not saying China will win. I'm not saying it won't. We don't know. We do know that the US will continue provoking and disrupting China at any and every chance it gets. I think on this you are in agreement with it would seem based on what you've written.

Fast closing the gap is nice and all but if you're fast closing the gap and the adversary begins crossing one of your clearly iterated and mutually agreed on lines you do need to at least respond somewhat... even if just in non kinetic form. As things stand, kinetic war in the form of forced reunification may be on the table. FYI USA and India both recognise PRC China as legit China and therefore CCP as the legitimate Chinese government and both of those nations consider Taiwan aka ROC as a breakaway province but support it on the wishy washy self determination of peoples front mostly out of geostrategic convenience and utility rather than any genuine morality or empathy for Taiwanese people - who are ethnically a mix of southern and northern Chinese people from the mainland, mostly Han Chinese lol ... in other words, your kindness is fake and in your heart of hearts you know this to be true. Mainland Chinese people have more empathy towards Taiwanese Chinese people albeit with the political conflict issue and the unresolved Chinese Civil war.

So the situation is precarious and tricky but backing down without war may still be the path selected. Maybe war in coming weeks or months. Maybe another form of escalation e.g. coup or regime change conducted by PRC this time on the ROC. As things stand, both sides are mobilising in case of war.
 
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