No one finds that hard to believe. The core question we're arguing over is whether Pelosi lives or dies.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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The dollar only retained 20% its value over span of 3 decades... America is "monetizing the debt" away .. anyone who thinks US was ever going to pay back China what it really owed regardless of anything else that happened or didnt happen I have a NFT image of a bridge to sell them...
This is with their Magic AAM though, which are several decades past expiration. I expect the sidewinders and AIM-120 to be fully functional.
Yep, whether or not they succesfully deter her/makes her plane change course and not land in Taiwan is another discussion.
But an attempt will 100% be made.
And also, the chance of the plane being directly shot down should be very low, although some accident (flares into engine, ROC plane shot down crashing into it etc.) happening resulting in the plane crashing? I give it a low chance as well, although higher than being directly shot down.
Let's talk about 2, on the idea of legitimacy. I'm very ambivalent on this front. CPC is chosen by the Chinese people, not through voting but through fighting, because this is the political entity that can provide a stable life to most Chinese. If you look at Chinese history, the destruction of each dynasty is caused directly by peasant/famer uprising since they can no longer live due to heavy taxes, wealth inequality, and natural disaster. People do care about national rejuvenation and all that big stuff, but what keeps you from protesting on the streets and overthrowing your government is whether you have a stable job that can feed your families' mouths. Ideology and pride cannot feed mouths. This is also why 1989 failed, because it was only the urban population protesting for ideological reasons, but the majority of the Chinese who are farmers, still supported the CPC since they are not starving and have roofs over their heads - or at least they did not care enough to rebel. My dad was in Shanghai where Jiang Ze Min was the mayor in 1989, they were on the streets protesting too and Jiang came over, gave a speech, and promised to have pork ribs for dinner in their universities, and everyone shut up and stayed off the streets lol.
Now is Taiwan issue an important one? Yes! But will being soft this time cause any turmoil within China? Unlikely for a couple of reasons. First because China's politics does not work through public awareness and protest, CPC pass policies based on what they think are ideal, not based on reactions from the people (many CPC policies are deeply unpopular among the Chinese but they still get passed) - going to the streets as a way to pressure the government is not exactly a Chinese way of doing things, this is why you rarely get peaceful protests in China, people either go batshit crazy or do nothing at all, I think its a cultural thing.. So I do not expect protests to emerge across China if China does soft this time around, things just don't work like that in China. What about legitimacy? I don't think that is a concern either. Chinese who like the CPC will like them regardless of what they do in this situation and justify their decisions, and Chinese who already dislike CPC will just find any reasons to bash CPC. Perhaps a few young people who held favorable attitudes to CPC over its perceived military strength may get disappointed if China does not act forcefully this time, but this will be quickly forgotten in a few weeks. China has endured much more hamulating taunts in the past and reacted surprising little and that went no where, I think this time may not be that different after all.
Look at this on the flip side, if US suffers from a military defeat, will Americans go onto the streets and protest since the entire American identity is about their invincible strength in military's? Not really right? America was able to get through Vietnam although with some trouble, but it got though. It withdrew from Afghanistan last year and no one really did anything.... A lot of Chinese on the internet is still hopelessly worshipping the US after all the hamulating defeats it had suffered in the past couple of years from Covid, Afghanistan, and more, but US government is still perceived as pretty legit by most Western folks.
Let's just put it this way, CPC and Xi's legitimacy is not built on top of Taiwan alone, so one single issue may cause some degradation, but unlikely going to lead to any significant or catastrophic loss of trust that will cause actual turmoil.
But that is just my personal opinion.... Please feel free to challenge me on this one...
What about 3? Honestly I have no real insightful analysis on this one, I think it is not a bad time window. In fact, quite a few PLA high ranking sources have openly stated that they are confident in PLA's ability to defeat the US in West Pacific in a Taiwan contingency for the past 2 -3 years, and PLA's recent behaviors towards the US seem to prove so as well, so if we take such words for granted that the PLA believes it is ready, then maybe it is a good-time window. Who knows.
Finally let's talk about 4. This is an assumption that I agree. I think China has pretty clearly drawn red lines on issues of sovereign safety, and past records do show that when these are crossed China will respond forcefully (Korean war, 1996, Zhen Bao Dao). And given the overall Chinese and PLA sentiment on the Pelosi trip in the past couple of days, I think Pelosi is very close to a red line and the Chinese will probably deliver on their threats, but how serious the threat is, we'll not know.
Finally based on all that, I think if PLA is going to respond forcefully, I don't think it is going to be about preserving Xi's legitimacy or ensuring the success of the congress later this year, but to have a shock and awe effect on the US, its allies, and the world that is serious enough to fundamentally alter US calculations on how they should be dealing with the Taiwan situation with China. But how serious is serious, is it kinetic? Honestly I am not so sure. Maybe we need to keep an eye on whether people in Fujian will be asked to do exercises evacuating to air shelters and general re-call of ex-PLA soldiers.
Well that's all my thought dump in a few posts, please do debate me on some of these..
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
So if you don't know what it is, or if it's real and you don't care if increases become official, how do you know that it went up and how much do you want it to go up by? This whole things reads like a child wanting a thing without knowing what he actually wants but he knows he's pissed off.
How is it limited by funding? Did PLA generals request more of this and that and the CCP denied it because they needed the money to go elsewhere? What part of China's spending is unimportant and should be diverted? It's my impression that the PLA is funded by as much as they can intelligently and beneficially use, with minimal glut or fat as seen in the US military.
Obsolete means that something else can do the job better/cheaper/with less risk. It does not mean useless so you can't evaluate this without knowing what is in the works and how soon it will arrive.
Yes, but the PLA isn't arguing for that rate. The PLA calibrated it to a good balance between being flooded with suboptimal designs and having nothing to protect yourself with. Without the data that they have, it's hard to believe that anyone else can calculate a better balance and incredibly arrogant and deluded to believe that someone here can.
The US has no urgency to defeat the USSR; it is reversed from now. The USSR was fading so the US wanted to bide for time. Now, it is China who wants to do that as China is outgrowing the US. The urgency is reversed.
But you presume to understand the lessons and you presume that they don't, or didn't or that they don't have a better analysis/conclusion.
Beijing already does flyovers occasionally, not even with fighters but bombers that are slow and vulnerable. Taiwan does nothing because they don't want to be wiped out for firing the first shot.
You forget that US has way more investment in China than vice versa. When war breaks out, that will all be Government property and every major US company that rely on Chinese market will get destroyed, their goods and facilities will be freely distributed to the people and to aid the war effort. China keeps US dollars but almost all are in its own accounts. US could void them, but nothing stops from China to just not care that they're voided and simply use them to pay various entities under the table.
If US defaults on debt, its just going to permanently ensure their economy will never rise above third world status. Especially if they gamble on invading Taiwan and lose.
The only actual cards US has is goodwill from CPC doves and mutual assured destruction. The former extensively help US prop up their economy, the latter is self explanatory, they could turn any conflict into a draw hypothetically with nukes.
US military itself acknowledges it likely doesn't have the power to invade Taiwan, and probably didn't have power to do so in a long time, given how they've never tried it since the 1990s. If they're trying something now and not in the 2010s, it's due to desperation.
"How dare you criticize God's will? He is all-knowing and wise."
That's not how the international bond market works. If you default on one, you default on the entire world. Bye bye to your economy, as the world's reserve currency, it hurts the US to default than it hurts China. It's also impossible to selectively default on any single country since most bonds are held by shell companies or shell entities.
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