Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Quick updates
- A bunch of flights tomorrow from Shanghai to Taipei cancelled (not exactly sure if caused by covid or current situations, but greatly reduced numbers planned compared to last Tuesday)
What about flights between other Chinese cities and Taiwan? Like Hong Kong-Taipei, which are one of the more popular routes, for example.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
There are many ways to make the US hurt. For example, China could turn this figure from 175 to 1750 if it so wished.

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If I was Xi I'd be looking into it. Get creative.
This is why China should just STFU and triple it's nuke stockpile or defence. If you wanna play drug-dealer as "revenge" against US, you already lost the game.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Does it count as a threat when you say that you plan to commit suicide?
Not really. If the Chinese does not give a nasty response (regardless of its type) to the US, then the EU has nothing to fear. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if more and more EU officials announce that they will go to Taiwan if the condition I mentioned isn’t met. This essentially would legitimize Taiwan as an international entity, which is one step closer to being recognized as a nation.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Seems like many posters are getting overly emotional, painting these stark choices between shooting down Pelosi's plane or face domestic unrest.

It reminds me of the HK riots, when emotions ran equally high. Like the riots have shown though, the Chinese government has a far better handle of the situation than we can imagine.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is why China should just STFU and triple it's nuke stockpile or defence. If you wanna play drug-dealer as "revenge" against US, you already lost the game.
I already suggested this:
Here's what China needs to do: publicly announce that it will increase its nuclear stockpile to at least 5000 warheads, and carry out that threat ASAP. Then immediately renounce adherence to no first use policy, and make it abundantly clear that China is willing to go to nuclear annihilation to recover Taiwan.

The only red line Americans understand is one that is backed up by the threat of guaranteed, utter, and unavoidable nuclear annihilation. This is why they have avoided a direct conflict with Russia, all the way through the Cold War to the collapse of the USSR to modern day Ukraine war.
I am just saying there are also more covert ways to make them feel the pain. Nothing is off limits. I do not see the downsides to secretly supporting the import of fentanyl to the US. You get to cripple american youth and boost the domestic chinese economy at the same time. There are no downsides.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Who said the Chinese military doesn't pay for its troops' healthcare?

The US produces multiple times more F-35s than China produces J-20s annually. The US navy still outmasses China's by at least three times. China is still constructing its first proper carrier, the US has eleven. China doesn't have a single nuclear submarine with performance above mediocre to its name.

For this and many other reasons, if China is spending more than America in real terms then it still isn't enough. China has a lot of ground to make up.

I don't huff copium about China having a vast and secret nuclear arsenal. The only arsenal that matters is the one your enemy thinks you have and if China has 1,000+ secret warheads somewhere, now would be a good time to announce their presence. Until then, it's Hans Kristensen's 350.
Regarding warheads, China has never divulged how many they have, the only certainty is that they exist, they'll not be used first in a war, everything else about the arsenal is deliberately kept ambiguous.

The only public estimate is from western state media sources that have a vested interest in spreading fake news, basing it off some Chinese politician who once said they had hundreds of active nukes, without elaborating on what he meant with active or even if that was an important official at all.

So, your claim is wrong. Its especially wrong when you consider that there should be around 20 DF41s at the absolute least, which have 10 warheads each. And most (almost all even) of the Chinese arsenal is on legacy platforms such as the DF5A, not ultra modern DF41s.
 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
maybe china really is reluctant but ready for war right now, but I find it quite incredible how taiwan completely removed itself from the equation, and now matters are solely between washington and beijing

after the ukraine conflict I thought "well, the usa is not gonna go to war against china for taiwan, they didn't against russia for ukraine, at least not openly"; but they managed to come up with a situation that at best erodes the once china policy and makes china take some kind of an L while at worst creates a causus belli for them to directly intervene
 
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