Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
My 2 cents:
US is trying to goad China into a violent/kinetic response, in order to unite its allies and otherwise would-be neutral countries to contain China.

In my opinion, China should not be goaded. China will be depicted as the bad guy anyway in media, no matter how justified they are. Heck, even the U.S. went to war to stop separatism. I don’t think it is in the _best_ interests of China in the long run to give a kinetic response due to the Pelosi visit. The punitive measures imposed by the other countries would lead to high costs to the Chinese. That would be detrimental to the rejuvenation of China. China should win by other means. Look, China is set to have the world’s biggest economy within a decade, perhaps even faster due to access to cheaper energy compared to Europe and RoW. China will be the market with highest tech products. Just look at the electric vehicles. 5G. High speed rail. This kind of provocation from the U.S. shows how desperate they are to fight China earlier and also to deflect the US government’s poor performance.

The difference between the Korean war and now, is that the opportunity cost is much higher for the Chinese. Paradoxically, the higher income a person has, the higher opportunity cost. That’s why some high-earning persons have harder time to take more time off compared to a below average-earning guy.

As for the legimacy of CCP and Xi Jinping, I believe the Chinese trust the government and Xi Jinping enough, looking back at how China handled corona compared to other countries, the economic growth and technological and infrastructure upgrade of the last decades. Look how the US tried to humiliate China by fanning the HK 2019 riots. They wanted HK Police or the PLA Garrison to give the world a “Tiananmen incident” #2. Who won in the end by keeping it cool?

China should however, definitely do something that shows strong assertion of its sovereignty – for example an armed overflight of Taiwan. However, it should not fire the first shot/missile, which is exactly what the U.S. wants. China, should it ever come to an armed unification, optimally a peaceful unification, is the one who chooses the exact timing when she is ready.

China already is the bad guy. If it does nothing then it would just be a weak bad guy.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Taking Kinmen, Lianjiang and Penghu is defintely an assymetric option, which could be better because it doesn't cause direct risk of conflict with USA.

Then again, who says US will go to war over 1 dead Pelosi if she flew over someone else's territory and was warned several times to leave? US people are willing to be conscripted into the largest war ever seen just because 1 idiot didn't obey instructions? In a time era where people are standing in bread lines and the economy is diving?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Exactly. You can't have your cake (low GDP % spending) and eat it (successfully cower a peer rival without firing a shot), then bitch and moan about it when you can't have it all. Rather China just STFU and grow it's defence and nuke stockpile exponentially.
But while all you said is true, that doesn't mean all of that actions would not have been met with an equal or greater reaction from the west led by the U.S. noting that nothing China does post 2012 would be seen or interpreted as innocent or a right for the country to develop it's defence, it's economy, trade etc...Heck the Chinese goal of Made in China 2025/BRI trade expansion precipitated an unprecedented action from America that led to the trade, economic, tech war that's been exacted against China with it's measly 1.5% of defense spending.

What data do you guys have to support the assertion that if only China had explicitly issued a raise in defense spending to 3-5% that such proclamation wouldn't have pushed an even greater escalation from her enemies?

Regardless of strategy employed by China, her enemies do get a vote with their every action and that's just the reality of geopolitics.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, exactly that. If you don't like it, support increased military spending so China gets stronger sooner.

Defense spending was never a part of my posts in this entire thread, but I'll give you on that point to some extent, given the unfolding events.

And starting a war you won't win is the good take, right?
And how exactly do you definitely know about "starting a war you won't win"? You went up a hill and talked to a voice?
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
That's so empty and shallow.
Chinese Government, and by extension, entire Chinese citizenry, are not your servants.
They don't serve your so-called capital L Logic, whatever that is.
I wouldn't talk on behalf of the Chinese government if I were you, they're very Logical with a capital L. They're not hyperventilating like hormonal teenagers like a lot of the supposed adults in this thread are doing. They have an excellent idea what the balance of power is today and what they need to do to get it where it needs to be. They're not going to let some fading power's antics deviate China's rise one iota.

You and the other emotional simpletons here can watch "Where on Earth is Carmen Sandiego Nancy Pelosi?" all you like. As far as I'm concerned, this matter is finished and I can only hope that China draws the correct lesson from it: 1.4% isn't enough. Whatever theatrics it puts on for the peanut gallery don't really interest me.
And how exactly do you definitely know about "starting a war you won't win"? You went up a hill and talked to a voice?
If you think China is ready today to expel the US from the western Pacific at acceptable military and economic cost and impose a peace favourable to itself on the US, then it isn't me hearing voices in his head.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top