PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Satellite following the US carrier strike group.
I don't think anything major will happen here. It will be a lot of dog and pony show going on. I don't think America can at this point cancel Pelosi's trip, because that would imply US military is scared of PLA and would be terrible for America's anti-China hegemon efforts in Asia. So, the trip will go ahead. The problem is that these threats got too much into public notice. The longer it drags on, the harder it is for Pelosi to cancel it. So, we got a terrible situation.
On the other hand, PLA has to demonstrate some level of military activity around Taiwan it has not shown before in order deter Taiwan from getting close to red line.
Long term, it's a terrible precedence for US military to need an aircraft carrier close to Taiwan when this sort of stuff happens again, because that puts a huge bullseye on the carrier. If we get to a point where a conflict becomes likely, PLA would love nothing less than having a US carrier parked a couple of hundred pms of mainland. So, I think people within US military really needs to be careful about what they do here. It's not a great idea to get too close in a heightened environment over a geopolitical standoff.
On the other hand, PLA has to demonstrate some level of military activity around Taiwan it has not shown before in order deter Taiwan from getting close to red line.
Long term, it's a terrible precedence for US military to need an aircraft carrier close to Taiwan when this sort of stuff happens again, because that puts a huge bullseye on the carrier. If we get to a point where a conflict becomes likely, PLA would love nothing less than having a US carrier parked a couple of hundred pms of mainland. So, I think people within US military really needs to be careful about what they do here. It's not a great idea to get too close in a heightened environment over a geopolitical standoff.
Public stereotypes can also exacerbate the crisis.
I went to quora and saw some topics about the 5th generation fighter,the content made me very disappointed. Most people still stubbornly believe that China's technology cannot be better than that of the United States，some people don't even admit that the j-20 is a qualified 5th generation fighter,it's just a replica of MiG 1.44.
In view of this prejudice, it is inevitable to underestimate China's military strength.Ordinary people may think that letting the aircraft carrier go there will scare us.The worst thing is that these people who lack professional knowledge have the right to vote,even if the U.S. military is aware of this danger, they are afraid that they will have to carry out this highly dangerous mission under the pressure of the public and politicians.
This bold behavior is based on the self-confidence that "China dare not".After all, after years of propaganda, the public will only think that they are dealing with a large North Korea.They will only think that once China dares to attack the US Army, the US Army can destroy the enemy like killing ants.
Which is good, because it means the American virus can be neutralized with less danger, before its ready to adapt to real world conditions and becomes harder to remove from Asia.
As long as the lame fossil Biden is in power, the ability of America to reform and innovate will be near zero. So during either terms of Biden, or if an even less competent official takes the rule after him, would be a good chance to find a casus belli and end USA ability to threaten China, permanently.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
At this point, this is whistling past the graveyard. It's clear that they are both scared of China. China's economy is ahead of its technological growth, which is ahead of its military, at least it appears that way in the order that can be confirmed by solid results (since the US has already been defeated in the trade war, is currently finding that China's technological growth cannot be contained, but the military is something that leaves much to the imagination unless there is real hot conflict). So in the stages of grief, the US and its allies have advanced to depression and are moving to acceptance when it comes to China's economy, are at bargaining when it comes to China's tech, but are still on denial when it comes to China's military. But they know they're scared; confident countries grow themselves while scared countries act like asshole neighbors.
Yes and because they underestimate China they don't take warnings from the Chinese government seriously. This forces China to make much stronger threats to achieve the same result.
You can change the world's perception of Chinese military strength by fighting a war. But you can also display your own perception of yourself more forcefully. The US enjoys calling China a near peer adversary. China should do the same and call itself the prime superpower. China often says that the East is rising and the west is falling. It should be made clearer that the west has declined so much that it's behind the East. Being realistic makes China look weak in American eyes. But if the US believes that China believes it's the more powerful country, they'll be forced to take Chinese threats more seriously.
If China published its self assessment stating that it now considers itself able to defeat the US in a Pacific war, the US wouldn't provoke China as much and pelosi wouldn't visit, because even if the Americans think they're stronger, if they know China thinks that America is weaker, a provocation will cause war. If the Americans think that China agrees that the US is more powerful, then obviously they will consider Chinese warnings as empty threats. But of course maybe we want them to not take China seriously and keep deluding themselves, even if it's annoying
If you think this is ridiculous, I suggest you watch the video they just sent me and draw your conclusions, mine was a 1 minute laugh at the nonsense said by the author of the video who clearly has a tendency to be anti-China. I'm just not going to extend this conversation because it's on another topic, but it's clear how much the West underestimates China.
why is this Winston guy so popular on Youtube? He is clearly racist, which could be seen from the episode where he drove around Hollywood.
In some of his Youtube videos I remember he used to refer himself as he "trained" doctors, lawyers, and business people in China... But this guy was not even a Tony Robbins, he was just a half ass English teacher who tried to moonshine into IT but didnt even make the cut....
Guess he finally found his niche making videos on Youtube bashing China as his full time professional job now. He married a Chinese wife so that makes him an China expert or so he says