'Murica Fuck Yeah! + Jai hinds + Falun gong types probably.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
He is a opportunist that sees China-Bad makes money with views.
That's why.
escobar
Brigadier
Nothing new. I will believe when I see
You can't hide a carrier anymore in today's times.
Interesting to see how PLA react to Pelosi trip which will happen. I don't see US backing down now because it will bad on the PR spectrum for them if they do.
I made a series of response from PLA which will be in the form a snap drill for their forces. The higher the grade number, the more serious it is.
Grade 1: No response.
Grade 2: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS or SCS.
Grade 3: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ with 200+ aircrafts all together in a span of days. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS and SCS
Grade 4: PLAAF crossing the median line coupled with unknown number of ADIZ intrusions from South or encirclement around Taiwan.
Grade 5: Snap drill in Taiwan strait itself for all PLA branches with PLARF launching ballistic missiles. If ballistic launches are directly over Taiwan, it might generate a 4th Taiwan strait crisis.
Grade 6: Extreme reaction which combines Grade 3-5 with possible ballistic flight over Taiwan.
Grade 7: PLAAF launches intercept drills around ECS and North of Taiwan ADIZ at the exact moment Pelosi flight is heading towards Taiwan. Her flight path will originate from Japan and head towards north of Taiwan. I think this one is the most dangerous and might actually spark an incident.
Grab your popcorn, it's going to be interesting for the next couple of weeks.
I made a series of response from PLA which will be in the form a snap drill for their forces. The higher the grade number, the more serious it is.
Grade 1: No response.
Grade 2: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS or SCS.
Grade 3: PLAAF flyby in south Taiwan ADIZ with 200+ aircrafts all together in a span of days. Possible snap drill by PLAN in ECS and SCS
Grade 4: PLAAF crossing the median line coupled with unknown number of ADIZ intrusions from South or encirclement around Taiwan.
Grade 5: Snap drill in Taiwan strait itself for all PLA branches with PLARF launching ballistic missiles. If ballistic launches are directly over Taiwan, it might generate a 4th Taiwan strait crisis.
Grade 6: Extreme reaction which combines Grade 3-5 with possible ballistic flight over Taiwan.
Grade 7: PLAAF launches intercept drills around ECS and North of Taiwan ADIZ at the exact moment Pelosi flight is heading towards Taiwan. Her flight path will originate from Japan and head towards north of Taiwan. I think this one is the most dangerous and might actually spark an incident.
Grab your popcorn, it's going to be interesting for the next couple of weeks.
antiterror13
Brigadier
What do you think the seriousness of the situation now compare to the one when Lee Teng-hui visited the US in June1995?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You only seem to focus on American motivations and thinking with scant regard for how China is taking this. You just take it for granted China is bluffing and assume it will just do some sabre rattling and call it a day. But Beijing’s credibility is also on the line here. With Xi getting ready for his 3rd term and the PLA funding on Aug 1st, all very important dates and events that Pelosi’s trip is purposefully designed to piss on just to flip her middle finger at China.
The problem is Pelosi has way overplay her hand and bitten off way more than she can chew as neither Xi or China can be seen to just take such an almighty slap in the face like that without response. With tensions already at near historic highs, there isn’t much of the salami sausage left to slice before armed reunification (AR) is all that is left. She has created a situation where neither side can easily back down and worse, she and the Pentagon has now made AR that much more tangible and attractive for Beijing by getting the Reagan involved with her escort.
The PLAAF absolutely has incentive to go for a maximum aggression move against Pelosi now because that would force the carrier to directly engage the PLAAF in a shooting war on China’s doorstep, overextended, exposed and incredibly vulnerable, all but guaranteeing it will get taken out as the opening move of the war.
Without the Reagan, US Pacific forces will be fundamentally kneecapped and won’t be in any position to directly intervene until at least two replacement and reinforcement carriers arrive. Which might as well be never as the PLA would have taken Taiwan way before then.
In the meantime I think China will declare a no fly zone and no sail zone covering Taiwan and much of the second island chain. It won’t actively attack regional US bases, but any US assets that breeches those zones will be fired upon without further warning.
That’s about as favourable a starting position for AR as China could reasonably hope for.
In addition, the war in Ukraine leaves the EU in an uniquely vulnerable position. America was always going to be a lost cause in terms of trade and investment when it comes to AR time, but China absolutely now has leverage to make the EU stay neutral or else their economies and societies will simply collapse if deprived of all Chinese manufacturing and markets on top of Russian raw materials. That’s not even needing to make any threats about Chinese arms or even troops entering the war on Russia’s side.
There is never a perfect time for a major war, but Pelosi has managed to pick near the worst possible time for America and Europe. That makes things extra dicey has it makes it all the more tempting for China to call their bluff and absolutely crush them when they bet so heavily on such a shitty hand.