Why did you take one month of 1978 as a reference to 2022? Do you just forget August 30, 2021 after 20 years? Your brain works very differently from most people.
I suggest you come back here in 2042 and comment about the impact of Ukraine war.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I suggest you come back here in 2042 and comment about the impact of Ukraine war.
If Afghanistan and Iraq are anything to go by, Ukraine will see very little of this. It'll all be absorbed by the MIC.
solarz
Brigadier
One issue I saw with your analysis is that you're assuming the change in number of BTG is only from combat casualty and reinforcement. You did not take into account the possibility that many BTGs may have simply rotated out.
solarz
Brigadier
The difference is that the Soviet Union was a failing economy when it went into Afghanistan. Russia today is an energy exporter with a solid relationship with China.
The relationship is non linear. Once the more experienced soldiers die the conscripts will be easier. Crash course infantrymen, tank crews and helicopter pilots are no match for experienced ones, even with better equipment.
Also, consider the amount of spending the west is doing to achieve the status quo. In Afghanistan the US spent $1 billion over the entire 10 years. That lasts about a week in the current conflict. It's insane.
We do you get that ~10000 for ~2.5 months lol?
Also is that all losses in man power, or just deads? (cuz if only deads, then wounded, captured, deserters etc. will probably make it about ~40000).
Anyways, from the stuff I've seen, for the last monthish at the very least, it seems like things have really grinded down to a very slow and steady moving frontline (for Russia), where it's probably even safe to say that Ukrainian losses > Russian losses (probably even greater than 2:1).
Actual losses for Ukraine probably some 100s of men at most a day (not all deads, but well wounded or captured/surrenders etc. will still effectively reduce your manpower and numbers).
It's possible that Russian lost a third of first committed troops. It's mostly possible that the Ukrainians lost most of their troops committed in the east...most of their aircrafts, most of their industries, weapons stockpiles, rely on reinforcements from the west and weapons from NATO...
A couple of notes about oryx and lost equipment.
First, some of the equipment is counted twice or even three times, photos made from different angles Didn't checked myself but saw estimates that Russian losses are actually 20-30% lower.
Second, abandoned equipment. For some reason everybody assumed all abandoned equipment ended up in hands of Ukrainians, but is it really so? I believe some of such equipment was photographed by locals and then successfully evacuated to Russia proper for repairs. There was even one case when storage for such equipment was attacked by Ukrainian artillery, but I am sure there were several such storages. Other abandoned vehicles were destroyed by locals later and thus counted second time.
First, some of the equipment is counted twice or even three times, photos made from different angles Didn't checked myself but saw estimates that Russian losses are actually 20-30% lower.
Second, abandoned equipment. For some reason everybody assumed all abandoned equipment ended up in hands of Ukrainians, but is it really so? I believe some of such equipment was photographed by locals and then successfully evacuated to Russia proper for repairs. There was even one case when storage for such equipment was attacked by Ukrainian artillery, but I am sure there were several such storages. Other abandoned vehicles were destroyed by locals later and thus counted second time.
