PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[tch1972]

Hualien airforce base is the largest and most fortified airforce base in Taiwan. It is about 4km X 4km in parameter, made up of two separate airfields (including dual use military-civilian Hualien airport) linked by a broad taxiway which could be used as an emergency runway. In total it has 2 main runways, and 3 taxi ways that can be used as emergency runway.

There are more than 100 fortified hangars, including tunnels dug into mountains.

To disable this airbase, at least 100 cruise missiles are need for the hangars, and at least another 30 or more for control towers, radars, sam sites, fuel tank farm and runways etc.

First wave attacks is not likely to destroy all intended targets, and run ways could be repaired within hours. Second wave and third wave might be needed to make the airbase completely un-usable for the duration of war.

If 3 waves of missiles attacks are needed, then no less than 250 cruise missles might be needed for this air base..

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This guy provide a very detail analysis

 

[tphuang]

Hualien airforce base is the largest and most fortified airforce base in Taiwan. It is about 4km X 4km in parameter, made up of two separate airfields (including dual use military-civilian Hualien airport) linked by a broad taxiway which could be used as an emergency runway. In total it has 2 main runways, and 3 taxi ways that can be used as emergency runway.

There are more than 100 fortified hangars, including tunnels dug into mountains.

To disable this airbase, at least 100 cruise missiles are need for the hangars, and at least another 30 or more for control towers, radars, sam sites, fuel tank farm and runways etc.

First wave attacks is not likely to destroy all intended targets, and run ways could be repaired within hours. Second wave and third wave might be needed to make the airbase completely un-usable for the duration of war.

If 3 waves of missiles attacks are needed, then no less than 250 cruise missles might be needed for this air base..

I think it's important to not think of China as Russia or at least not think of a PLAAF attack like a RuAF attack. I think PLA will need to lob over at least 1000 ballistic/cruise/stand off missiles/PGMs/MLRS on day 1. The goal of the day 1 attack is not to take out all Taiwanese capability, but rather to ensure PLAAF has full control of air space.

After which point, you can safely carry out re-attack with mostly PGMs/dumb bombs and with UCAVs. They need to blanket the air space with GJ-2 or similar UCAVs. That means when people come out to repair runways, you start to attack them. When aircraft start to come out of their hangars, you attack the aircraft. Over time, your manned aircraft sorties should be destroying the remaining hangar and such.

If there is anything the Ukraine conflict told us, it's that even simple UCAV can completely control battlefield when not facing air pressure. Taiwan has a pretty small airspace. 50 GJ-2s over the top would be able to completely cover all of Taiwan. If there is any ground troop movement, you send the nearest UCAV over to attack it. If tanks are moving out of cover and trying to get into position, you attack them. If artillery units are coming out and revealing themselves, you attack them. Of course, you will also need full range of ISR assets and EW/ELINT assets to properly assess ground situation and make quick decisions. You need ELINT aircraft to know exactly what Taiwan army is trying to do and EW aircraft to jam up and confuse them from each other. Thankfully, PLAAF has all of that with all the UAV and Y-8/9 special mission aircraft they've acquired in the past decade.

you might need tactical nukes for this base

No, please do not ever suggest such stupid idea again.

 

[PhSt]

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So the US has commanded another one of its chihuahuas (the other being Lithuania) to bark and piss on China.

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And now Taiwanese separatists are in the process of Nazification. If China doesn't liberate Taiwan now, things will only get more complicated in the future.

 

[Jingle Bells]

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So the US has commanded another one of its chihuahuas (the other being Lithuania) to bark and piss on China.

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And now Taiwanese separatists are in the process of Nazification. If China doesn't liberate Taiwan now, things will only get more complicated in the future.

LOL. what Mongoloid honorary Aryan?!? hahahahaha, that's just crazy!

 

[Blitzo]

Was listening to

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summary video on PLAN by China Aerospace Studies Institute. They think the PLAN marine brigades are not expected to play a major role in the Taiwan contingency because they are not equipt for such a task. I am curious to why they think that.

Because PLAGF amphibious brigades have a more appropriate TOE for the mission than PLAMC brigades.

 

[Riddle]

Will china be able to build and launch new ships in a conflict in a Taiwan involving the japan and the us?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Will china be able to build and launch new ships in a conflict in a Taiwan involving the japan and the us?

Depends on duration and scale of the conflict (if US and Japan intervenes).

As for how things will develop, who really knows.

 

[Riddle]

Depends on duration and scale of the conflict (if US and Japan intervenes).

As for how things will develop, who really knows.

yes, I was thinking if japan and the us got involved. would china's shipbuilding advantage be completely annulled?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

yes, I was thinking if japan and the us got involved. would china's shipbuilding advantage be completely annulled?

In a shorter conflict, yes (since modern ships and subs needs quite a lot of time to make).

In a longer conflict? Eh, who knows (maybe it would transition into a low tech war), although a longer war probably means total war as well (so full mobilization of the country) which, no matter how I look at it, is likely to end with nuclear exchange.

 

[Abominable]

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So the US has commanded another one of its chihuahuas (the other being Lithuania) to bark and piss on China.

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And now Taiwanese separatists are in the process of Nazification. If China doesn't liberate Taiwan now, things will only get more complicated in the future.

This is what happens if you fail to punish Lithuania properly.