PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Godzilla said:
Wouldn't you just neutralize the fuel tanks and the entrances to the tunnels along with the runway/radar/SAM/hardened shelters in the first wave, and then keep real time surveillance over the area and take out the engineering units coming in with clustered munitions? I would imagine it would be alot harder to repair a fully collapsed tunnel entrance under fire than it is to repair runways and get aircrafts out of damaged hardened shelters?
Would PLAN play any role after the first wave for shore bombardment of the area? It would atleast divert the defenders from the west coast? A dozen 056s with 052D providing SAM cover might be useful here? Especially as they might be needed in the area anyway to help blockade the east coast for potential reinforcement from 3rd parties?
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also being cut off from the rest of Taiwan by mountains, to prevent reinforcements just hit the mountain roads. A crater on a regular road is ez pz to repair or go around, it is much harder to drive around on narrow mountain paths without falling off the mountain.
 
Godzilla

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is a question I am curious about. In the PLA's calculus, as part of contingency should US & Japan intervene, would there be plans for a kind of permanent resolution to the border disputes with Japan in Diaoyu & East China sea, and as a stretch goal, the political status of Okinawa before they initiate armed reunification?
I am guessing this would all be dependent on China's military power at the time of the confrontation, and Japan's actual role in the conflict. If the US & Japan intervenes and China still comes out on top, wouldn't it be logical to militarily occupy Diaoyu islands to gain de-facto control? I mean, there must be consequences for one's actions.

Also, if the US & Japan were using the bases in Okinawa to strike the mainland/PLA targets on Taiwan, and if China were to inflict a decisive defeat on the intervention force, would it be logical for China to directly attack Okinawa to attempt to capture it and set up an independent Okinawa run by locals but under a Chinese protectorate. Granted this would be a serious escalation, but China isn't Iraq and isn't just going to sit around and let you bomb her.
This would completely shatter the first island chain and significantly compromise USN deployments in the Western Pacific.

All this would depend on how well the campaign go and what capacity is at hand during the time, but I think if the PLA is working towards achieving this capability, it would definitely help deter possible intervention from Japan, and in lieu handicap US's ability to intervene. When that day comes, sanctions etc are going to fly, might as well pay it once and get it all over and done with, since it is going to buy peace for a long time to come instead of kicking cans down the road. Of course if the need for armed reunification isn't initiated by China then all the above are nice to have but moot.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Godzilla said:
This is a question I am curious about. In the PLA's calculus, as part of contingency should US & Japan intervene, would there be plans for a kind of permanent resolution to the border disputes with Japan in Diaoyu & East China sea, and as a stretch goal, the political status of Okinawa before they initiate armed reunification?
I am guessing this would all be dependent on China's military power at the time of the confrontation, and Japan's actual role in the conflict. If the US & Japan intervenes and China still comes out on top, wouldn't it be logical to militarily occupy Diaoyu islands to gain de-facto control? I mean, there must be consequences for one's actions.

Also, if the US & Japan were using the bases in Okinawa to strike the mainland/PLA targets on Taiwan, and if China were to inflict a decisive defeat on the intervention force, would it be logical for China to directly attack Okinawa to attempt to capture it and set up an independent Okinawa run by locals but under a Chinese protectorate. Granted this would be a serious escalation, but China isn't Iraq and isn't just going to sit around and let you bomb her.
This would completely shatter the first island chain and significantly compromise USN deployments in the Western Pacific.

All this would depend on how well the campaign go and what capacity is at hand during the time, but I think if the PLA is working towards achieving this capability, it would definitely help deter possible intervention from Japan, and in lieu handicap US's ability to intervene. When that day comes, sanctions etc are going to fly, might as well pay it once and get it all over and done with, since it is going to buy peace for a long time to come instead of kicking cans down the road. Of course if the need for armed reunification isn't initiated by China then all the above are nice to have but moot.
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If Japan interferes then the disputed islands will likely be up for grabs. However, any direct assault further into Japan is a needless waste of resources. It will likely be limited to missiles and other projectiles but if Japan continues the war after Taiwan falls then it’s possible the war theater could get expanded after the consolidation on Taiwan.
 
V

Volpler11

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jason_ said:
All of China's amphibious forces are already stationed on the coast. The Eastern Theatre Command, whose exclusive ground mission is Taiwan, has three group armies and 18 maneuver brigades, including 6 amphibious brigades.View attachment 86067
This map is from the excellent YouTube channel Battle Order.

Against static or semi-static air defense site (PATRIOT, HAWK, Sky Bow 1/2), the campaign will last the same as the flight time of a short range ballistic missile, which is less than 180 seconds. And it would be DEAD instead of SEAD.

Against mobile air defense (Sky Bow 3, various IR guided SAMs), the campaign will last the entire duration of the war where J-16D armed with anti-radiation missile would be patrolling 24/7 ready to strike the moment a radar is turned on.
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Was listening to
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summary video on PLAN by China Aerospace Studies Institute. They think the PLAN marine brigades are not expected to play a major role in the Taiwan contingency because they are not equipt for such a task. I am curious to why they think that.
 
J

Jason_

Junior Member
Registered Member
Volpler11 said:
Was listening to
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summary video on PLAN by China Aerospace Studies Institute. They think the PLAN marine brigades are not expected to play a major role in the Taiwan contingency because they are not equipt for such a task. I am curious to why they think that.
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Honestly, I have no idea. This is in fact the only source I have heard of suggesting the PLANMC will not play a major role.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
You wouldn't just target one airbase, you'd target them all. You'd aim for air defences first or at the same time. Missile strikes and drone attacks timed to hit at the same time, then joined by the fighters and strike aircraft to take out everything left or anything they can scramble.
 
S

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I fully expect that China's strategy will be to strike quickly, overwhelmingly and with as little warning as possible. China must assume that any military action against Taiwan with the goal of overthrowing the government, regardless of the circumstances, means China will be cut off from a huge portion of the global economy.

So from my perspective, the major concern is economic, and not military material loss. If they are stupid (like Russia) and fight some sort of sudo conflict with Tiawan, while allowing the "West" to supply Taiwan with a variety of weapons and gain real world experience, then maybe China will also suffer serious material losses... but I doubt they are that stupid, especially after the Ukraine/Russia war that is currently ongoing.
 
ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
also being cut off from the rest of Taiwan by mountains, to prevent reinforcements just hit the mountain roads. A crater on a regular road is ez pz to repair or go around, it is much harder to drive around on narrow mountain paths without falling off the mountain.
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that base could be reinforced by USN and Japan from the sea
 
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