Ukrainian War Developments

[MortyandRick]

this is what i being saying all along that Putin want to bring back the old Russian empire not ussr.

i think this type of mentality is quite dangerous cause then you will ask where in history will you put the period. meaning can Mexico attack American and claim Texas? can china attack north Vietnam and claim it again like in the Ming dynasty. or can the Mongols come and conquer china again claiming history. can Manchuria be kicked out of china? can Columbia attack panama and claim history?

he has a point but the matter of fact is that people are dying and suffering all because of someone ego and greed.

i think the greed point get overlooked nowadays. Ukraine is the world third exporter of grains. their are oil and gas field found recently near Crimea. its also a country with 44 million people which would add tremendously the manufacture capacity of Russia specially military equipment.( heck I wouldn't be surprise if these thirds and second tier Russian unit bmp and logistic vehicle was made in Ukraine.). also not to mention the addition of ports to the black sea improving trade and etc.

This is how and world has always been. Might makes right. That’s why the Us ha wages all those wars. Strategically Putin did what he had to do to maintain Russian security. Just like how he Americans embargoed Cuba all those years and almost had a war with the USSR during the Cuban middle crisis. Was that greed and ego? Perhaps but it was mostly strategic security.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Europeans have a lot of weapons stock piles

some old some new

they are sending them in like no tomorrow

Russia needs to reach Western border and secure these arms shipments coming in

because once they are in it’s already too late

the weapons trails should be identified coming into the country

Russia doesn't even have the manpower to secure anything in Ukraine. There is no way for them to pressure and stopping European supply lines to Ukraine.

That is one of the reasons why complete air superiority is so critical in these conflicts. Russia would then have the ability to launch strikes against supply routes and corridors. The USAF saw immense utility in bombing the supply routes of the NVA during the Vietnam War and this situation should be very similar.

 

[In4ser]

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Based if true... I'm getting Rainbox Six Rogue Spear vibes

Off topic, I really loved that game as a teenager. I miss those days playing and chatting in the lobby of M-Player/Gamespy Arcade.

 

[In4ser]

Well, this has all been terribly depressing. We are witnessing a catastrophe for Ukraine, for Russia, and for all of Europe.

It's likely that Russia will eventually succeed in defeating the Ukrainian armed forces and forcing what remains of the present government into exile. However, Russia's ability to create and maintain a new stable order in Ukraine is highly questionable. It is likely that we will see a protracted and potent insurgency develop in Ukraine, aided by western support that will continue to inflict losses on Russian forces, occasioning further reprisals and destruction, and further alienation of civilian peoples, in turn fueling the insurgency in a pattern that has been repeated in many times and places. The human toll of such an insurgency will be horrific, while the ongoing burdens of attempting to create and maintain order will sap Russian resources and may well come to threaten the stability of the present order within Russia itself, with consequences that no-one can predict.

Setting aside the moral arguments, it is clear that the Ukrainian government is heavily implicated in this catastrophe. It is clear that they did not take Russia's "red lines" as seriously as they should have, and it is also becoming clear, from Zelenskiy's expressed frustration at NATO's unwillingness to (attempt to) impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine, that the Ukrainian government had a similarly imperfect appreciation of the extent to which NATO is (and isn't) willing and able to assist them. Given that Ukraine's negotiating positions these past few years would necessarily be heavily influenced by their appreciation of these two factors -- Russia's capacity and willingness to defend its "red lines", and the US/NATO capacity and willingness to defend Ukraine from Russia -- this can only be construed as a catastrophic failure on the part of the Ukrainian government, for which the people of Ukraine will ultimately pay the greatest price.

It is similarly clear that such "imperfect appreciations of reality" are not confined to Ukraine, but are present in the Kremlin as well. It seems that Putin really did believe that the Ukrainian people would welcome Russian forces as liberators, and that the task of sweeping aside the present government and its armed forces could be accomplished both quickly and relatively painlessly. There are also indications that Russia has been surprised by the extent of the western economic sanctions that promise severe hardships in the months and years to come. These too are failures for which Putin and other elements of the decision-making apparatus should be held responsible.

The failure of Ukraine to avert a Russian invasion, and the failure of Russia to secure a quick and decisive victory, leads directly to the desolate wasteland of possibilities that now confront us. There will be much suffering and hardship in the months and years ahead that could have readily been avoided with more clear-sighted vision, and at the back of it all lies the dreaded prospect of the conflict spreading further along lines that can already be readily perceived, e.g. NATO supplies of arms to Ukraine, Russian interdiction of same, etc. If there is one bright spot, it is that both Ukraine and Russia now have clearer and better motives to negotiate in good faith than they did previously. For Ukraine, the task is to preserve the existence of the nation and its people. For Russia, it is to avoid the unpalatable prospect of having to fight a long-term insurgency: another Afghanistan, but much more difficult and with fewer resources to address the problem. A negotiated settlement is in the interests of both nations.

Who knows. Alexander Mercouris did have interesting commentary on his opinion of Russia's strategy which indicated that they were intending to keep most of the Ukrainian bureaucracy intact by employing their encircle strategy to isolate and disarm hostile Ukrainians and work with those more friendly with Putin. They do this by maintaining humanitarian corridors to allow Ukrainian civilians and soldiers who disarm to leave the area which diminishes the morale and fighting capability of Ukrainian resistance all while slowly corraling those who want to continue to fight into some Western region isolated from the rest of the country. Apparently, the Russian did this to the IS fighters and the Idlib province in Syria.

Russians are not employing a "shock and awe" strategy like the US tends to do which is very successful in destroying infrastructure and decapitating the leadership but creates a power vacuum for insurgency as the US did with Sadaam and its De-Ba'athification. Instead, it takes the idea that "war is diplomacy by other means" very seriously and they are trying to avoid attacking Kyiv because they need someone around to negotiate peace terms with. Instead, this military campaign is an attempt to apply more and more pressure upon the Ukrainian leadership to extract favorable terms. As Russia is able to establish an overwhelming advantage in the battle, it can ask for more and more concessions to pressure on those who are unwilling to settle and will fight to the end and find out who amongst the Ukrainian government wants to seek peace. It can then act accordingly to divide the two Ukrainian factions even more and either get a favorable peace treaty or review that battlefield situation and decide whether or not to take the rest of Ukraine and figure out what to do with the Ukrainian version of the Idlib province later.

 

[LesAdieux]

“Russia will complete the decommunization of Ukraine,” - Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin

This is being said in an ironic way from our understanding. In Putin’s original speech, he said Ukraine wants decommunization but conveniently keeps everything USSR built for them. Then Putin said “we’re ready to show you real decommunization”

It may also be related to the lands Ukraine got from 1922 & on. (a lot of land) Might have to do your own research into that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500898973460090887

Territorial Evolution of Ukraine

View attachment 84752View attachment 84753View attachment 84754
View attachment 84755

Some further interesting info:

The idea of "Ukraine" did not start until the 19th century, how on earth there's "Ukrainian territories" in the 17th century?

"In 12th century the land was first mentioned as Ukraine. Russia did not exist."

Are you talking about Kievan Rus? You are aware that colloquially at the time it was just called "Rus land" when grouping all the principalities, and that the borderlands of which did not include even a specific region; is where the term 'Ukraine' came from. The word "Ukraine" originally means borderlands, that is not referring to a nationhood entity!

Ukraine got lots of lands from its neighbors as a consequence of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact 1939, lands that they still hold

Vladimir Putin once said "If you don't miss the USSR then you have no heart. If you want it back then you have no brain."
It makes sense that he at least appreciates its historical gains.

For added information, just watch the speech of the Russian President Vladimir Putin on 21 February 2022 - at 8:15 minute mark here: ~English subtitled (total ~56 min)

to be fair, Ukrainians probably deserve more than those, those are not gifts. historically Ukrainians played big part in Russia's expansionary wars, they certainly deserve part of the spoils.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

That is one of the reasons why complete air superiority is so critical in these conflicts. Russia would then have the ability to launch strikes against supply routes and corridors. The USAF saw immense utility in bombing the supply routes of the NVA during the Vietnam War and this situation should be very similar.

US didn't have air supremacy though.

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That's about 10k aircraft over 10 years of US involvement (1964 Gulf of Tonkin to 1973 Paris Accord). 1000 per year.

If Russians lost aircraft at the same rate they'd be losing 3 aircraft a day. So going by historical precedent this is a better performance than Vietnam.

 

[ansy1968]

Who knows. Alexander Mercouris did have interesting commentary on his opinion of Russia's strategy which indicated that they were intending to keep most of the Ukrainian bureaucracy intact by employing their encircle strategy to isolate and disarm hostile Ukrainians and work with those more friendly with Putin. They do this by maintaining humanitarian corridors to allow Ukrainian civilians and soldiers who disarm to leave the area which diminishes the morale and fighting capability of Ukrainian resistance all while slowly corraling those who want to continue to fight into some Western region isolated from the rest of the country. Apparently, the Russian did this to the IS fighters and the Idlib province in Syria.

Russians are not employing a "shock and awe" strategy like the US tends to do which is very successful in destroying infrastructure and decapitating the leadership but creates a power vacuum for insurgency as the US did with Sadaam and its De-Ba'athification. Instead, it takes the idea that "war is diplomacy by other means" very seriously and they are trying to avoid attacking Kyiv because they need someone around to negotiate peace terms with. Instead, this military campaign is an attempt to apply more and more pressure upon the Ukrainian leadership to extract favorable terms. As Russia is able to establish an overwhelming advantage in the battle, it can ask for more and more concessions to pressure on those who are unwilling to settle and will fight to the end and find out who amongst the Ukrainian government wants to seek peace. It can then act accordingly to divide the two Ukrainian factions even more and either get a favorable peace treaty or review that battlefield situation and decide whether or not to take the rest of Ukraine and figure out what to do with the Ukrainian version of the Idlib province later.

@In4ser bro you like his commentary, I'm a huge fan, His analysis is spot on and lately his companion Alex Christoforou from the Duran had become more China friendly...lol Well he himself admit his biases having live in the US that may shape his view. And people here sometimes criticized China or Xi soft approach, it's hard to convey a message especially to people with opinionate views and coming from different culture background. BUT Consistent messaging is the key as the Chinese Chopstick are better than the Collective West forked tongue...lol

 

[Virtup]

Extremely important statements by Putin (MUST SEE!) 07 MARCH 2022

As some of you know, Putin spoke at length with a group of Russian flight attendants. This is SUCH AN IMPORTANT STATEMENT that I asked one of our interpreters (thanks E.!) to subtitle the video. I am also posting the transcript below. In this exchange, Putin spells out in quite some details WHAT Russia is doing and WHY she is doing it. ~ Andrei

PS: please press “cc” to see the English language captions

Putin explains the military situation and why Ukraine might lose its future

Source:

Translated and subtitled by Eugenia

[Flight Attendant] My question concerns the current situation in Ukraine. We all support your actions and the special operation that is underway there. Naturally, the most important question, which, one way or another, all of us have asked ourselves, is why this special operation has started. Could it not have been avoided? Rationally, we do understand and support your actions, but as women we cannot help but worry: for our family, relatives, for those who are in Ukraine. We know that the civilians are not impacted. But nevertheless, tell us, reassure us: what are we to expect at the end of this road? What will be the end result of the military operation in Ukraine?

[President Putin] I will be brief but still will have to start, as they say, from “the center of the field”. I said about this at the start of the operation and also spoke about this before this decision has been made, a hard decision, without a doubt.

What is this about? The fact of the matter is that after the anti-constitutional coup in Ukraine, which, unfortunately, was strongly supported by the Western countries – let us face it. They do not even hide the fact that they have spent $5 billion on it, not to mention cookies given away on Maidan, and so on. And after that, instead of bringing the situation back on track, even if it had spiraled out of control, even if it had been the act of the overzealous locals – there is such legal term, i.e. planned one thing, but the result turned out to be something else – they still could have, and should have, returned the situation back onto the political track.

Furthermore, shortly before the coup, the foreign ministers of the three countries came to Kiev in 2014 and signed an agreement with the Ukrainian government acting as guarantors of this agreement to ensure that the situation would be developing in the political sphere. But nothing like that occurred. They organized a coup d’état and supported the perpetrators. What followed were the well-known events related to the Crimea and the southeast of Ukraine, Donbass, where people refused to support the coup. As we know, the Crimea made a decision; people came to vote in a referendum to return to the Russian Federation. Naturally, yes, naturally, we cannot but support that decision, al the more so, since they felt they were in danger from the nationalists and neo-Nazis. There is strong evidence that they were absolutely right in that.

Later, or, rather, in parallel, the events in Donbass were taking place. What have these events led to? People resisting the results of the coup were persecuted. Eventually, the new Kiev authorities initiated a military operation on that territory. They have conducted two large-scale punitive operations using of heavy weapons and combat aviation. They directly attacked Donetsk destroying the city squares with aviation, using tanks and artillery. Both these military campaigns failed. The Ukrainian army suffered defeat. After that, so-called Minsk agreements, or the Package of Measures, to use the official term, have been concluded. The agreements offered a path for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

We did everything we could to direct the events along this path, to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine as well as to protects the interests of the people living in these territories. What did these people demand? Nothing but the basic things: the right to speak their mother tongue, i.e. the Russian, and maintain their traditions and culture. These were by no means extraordinary demands. But no. These territories were put under economic blockade; disconnected from the banking system; the supplies of food were stopped; the payments of the pensions and social assistance were suspended. Sometimes, some handouts were given, but in order to get those pensions and benefits a person had to cross the separation line.

Now listen. I will now say something that may sound rough but the situation compels me to say it. You know that occasionally in some regions packs of stray dogs attack people, injure or even kill them (this is a separate problem, and it is for the local authorities to deal with). But then these animals are poisoned or shot dead. But people of Donbass are not stray dogs. Approximately 13,000-14,000 people have been killed during these years. Over 500 children have been killed or injured. But what is particularly intolerable is that the so-called “civilized” West has preferred all these years to look the other way. All these years – 8 years! Eight years!

( . . . )

See the rest of transcript at the site of The Vineyard of the Saker!

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NOTE: I can download the video, but cannot get the English.SRT file, only the Russian.SRT file is available for download. If any one knows how to download the English.SRT file, please info or simply share the English .SRT file by uploading it to some free file hosting service in the net.

If what Putin said about the miltary operation being according to plan and on schedule, then I guess russia knew what it was doing when it refused to send the bulk of it's airforce and simply decided to take the losses.

 

[Topazchen]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501028230718967817

According to these clowns, China must use SWIFT to trade with the rest of the world . American chokehold must be protected at all costs

 

[Virtup]

this is what i being saying all along that Putin want to bring back the old Russian empire not ussr.

i think this type of mentality is quite dangerous cause then you will ask where in history will you put the period. meaning can Mexico attack American and claim Texas? can china attack north Vietnam and claim it again like in the Ming dynasty. or can the Mongols come and conquer china again claiming history. can Manchuria be kicked out of china? can Columbia attack panama and claim history?

he has a point but the matter of fact is that people are dying and suffering all because of someone ego and greed.

i think the greed point get overlooked nowadays. Ukraine is the world third exporter of grains. their are oil and gas field found recently near Crimea. its also a country with 44 million people which would add tremendously the manufacture capacity of Russia specially military equipment.( heck I wouldn't be surprise if these thirds and second tier Russian unit bmp and logistic vehicle was made in Ukraine.). also not to mention the addition of ports to the black sea improving trade and etc.

I agree with you about the history point but don't forget that it's the west that set a precedent with Israel. Now they get to taste their own medicine. The true victims here are those being bombed and starved by the russians and executed by those who swore to protect them (Ukranian civilians).