Alright folks. Here we are at the end of day 12 and nearing the dawn of day 13. The war grinds on. There's a lot less to say today, tbh, for a few reasons. I'll delve into those. However, in the grand scheme of things, not much has really happened.
To be up front and fair, this is my opinion and mine alone. No one else would want it and most would rather run as far and fast away from it as they could. It's worth exactly as much as you paid for it.
That said, let's dive in.
1. The Russians are winning. Let's just get that out of the way. Anyone who thinks the Ukrainians are going to come out on top either has prophet level prognostication (and where
were you before the war started?! This could have been totally avoided then!) or has some mild issues that should be addressed.
2. The Russians are winning, but doing it pretty badly. The equipment losses continue. TB2s still fly and have started hitting the 64 km column. In fact, that column seems to have barely moved. The Ukrainian still have manned fighter aircraft in the air. The Russian navy lost a warship!
3. I will say it does appear the rate of equipment being abandoned has dropped. I had been noticing this for a few days and wondering if I was mistaken. Others have started to say the same thing. I was beginning to wonder if the last Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in the war would play a game where they would simply exchange the equipment and claim one side had won a great victory, only to exchange it back so the other side could.
4. It does appear the Ukrainians are free ranging all over and taking out supply convoys. So losses there are quite real. This lends credence to what I said not long ago: how far does an army really control?
@Overbom said it: about 100m to the left and the right.
5. How much progress are the Russians making? it's really, really hard to tell. The Ukrainians claim very little has happened and the Russians haven't even encircled Kiev. The Russians claim to have done so and launched a wildly successful offensive out of the Donbas. Yet...they are firing Grad from downtown Donetsk and don't offer up photographic proof of their advance in the LNR. Seems rather Ukrainian of them. The Americans claim the Russians appear to have ground to a halt.
6. The proof part is about to get a lot harder. With the shutdown of tiktok in Russia. With the blocking of twitter and other social media, it's highly likely the only bits to come out will be very vetted. The social media war will have ended.
7. That seems to be the case on the Ukrainian side, too, but potentially for different reasons. The first being those doing ticktocks are getting killed. The ones who are left are more cautious. Likewise, some better security, opsec, could also be implemented. Likewise, there could be far, far less successes to report. This could be a sign of Ukraine losing.
8. Kiev stands. Mariupol, Kharkov and Sumy still have at least two rocks that stand on top of each other. The Russians have not taken them.
9. Ukraine is still bagging aircraft: more Su-34 down, it seems. The SEAD/DEAD missions are not going well. Based on videos, the Russians are also still flying nap of the earth. Given they ought to be outnumbering the Ukrainian aircraft...why? Send Su-30s or Su-35s as escorts to the Su-34s or Su-25s. What little the Ukrainians have left should be easily prey. And yet...
10. The sheer numbers of ATGMs and MANPADS in Ukraine now should cause anyone to pause. When this is all said and done, where will those go? That could get ugly eventually. Maybe. The MANPADS from Afghanistan back in the day (Russian turn in the arena) didn't seem to leak out too much. So long as the Ukrainians have people willing to take them up, this is going to be a headache for the Russians.
11. The Ukrainians had 66,000 men return to fight. They have had over 20,000 international volunteers show up. Many of the latter are very much experienced. This could prolong the war.
So, reading here, I really really don't think people get the rage Ukrainians have. It is incandescent. And there are 40 million of them. Many here say NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian. No, you don't get it. It will be the Ukrainians who will
voluntarily fight to the last Ukrainian. I can hear the bull roar, "You came into
my house..."
Yo my yo.
I give the Ukrainians about an 11 % chance to win. I do think they are doomed. They have fought after better and more fiercely than I would have believed. I think they are doomed. OTOH, I can see a couple scenarios where they could, well, not
win but come out of the war intact, not under the Russian thumb or Finlandized.
Time will tell.
But the safe bet is still the Russian army.
