Ukrainian War Developments

[Abominable]

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That NY Times article is a terrible take. The only evidence of conscripts being present in the Ukraine are from captured Russia personnel. It's not surprising to hear POW claiming they didn't want to invade Ukraine, they were sent against their will, and so on. It is understandable and a way to elicit sympathy from your captors.

Putin himself has said that no conscripts have been deployed to the Ukraine and nor is there any plan to do so. You can claim he's lying and trying to hide Russian losses, but conscripts were deployed to Chechnya and there was no denial of their deployment there.

I've said multiple times that in this day and age countries tend to be accurate about their own deaths and exaggerate the numbers of enemy killed. We've seen that in every recent modern conflict including Galwan, the Azeri war and the 2014 Donbass war. We all know how crazy Indian claims were for numbers of PLA soldiers killed, but the number of their own dead was pretty accurate from the start. Soldiers have families and you can't hide someones death from them even in a dictatorship.

By feeding this myth that Russian soldiers are dying in their thousands they're actually making it worse for Ukraine.

 

[windsclouds2030]

“Russia will complete the decommunization of Ukraine,” - Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin

This is being said in an ironic way from our understanding. In Putin’s original speech, he said Ukraine wants decommunization but conveniently keeps everything USSR built for them. Then Putin said “we’re ready to show you real decommunization”

It may also be related to the lands Ukraine got from 1922 & on. (a lot of land) Might have to do your own research into that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500898973460090887

Territorial Evolution of Ukraine




Some further interesting info:

The idea of "Ukraine" did not start until the 19th century, how on earth there's "Ukrainian territories" in the 17th century?

"In 12th century the land was first mentioned as Ukraine. Russia did not exist."

Are you talking about Kievan Rus? You are aware that colloquially at the time it was just called "Rus land" when grouping all the principalities, and that the borderlands of which did not include even a specific region; is where the term 'Ukraine' came from. The word "Ukraine" originally means borderlands, that is not referring to a nationhood entity!

Ukraine got lots of lands from its neighbors as a consequence of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact 1939, lands that they still hold

Vladimir Putin once said "If you don't miss the USSR then you have no heart. If you want it back then you have no brain."
It makes sense that he at least appreciates its historical gains.

For added information, just watch the speech of the Russian President Vladimir Putin on 21 February 2022 - at 8:15 minute mark here: ~English subtitled (total ~56 min)

 

[KYli]

That NY Times article is a terrible take. The only evidence of conscripts being present in the Ukraine are from captured Russia personnel. It's not surprising to hear POW claiming they didn't want to invade Ukraine, they were sent against their will, and so on. It is understandable and a way to elicit sympathy from your captors.

Putin himself has said that no conscripts have been deployed to the Ukraine and nor is there any plan to do so. You can claim he's lying and trying to hide Russian losses, but conscripts were deployed to Chechnya and there was no denial of their deployment there.

I've said multiple times that in this day and age countries tend to be accurate about their own deaths and exaggerate the numbers of enemy killed. We've seen that in every recent modern conflict including Galwan, the Azeri war and the 2014 Donbass war. We all know how crazy Indian claims were for numbers of PLA soldiers killed, but the number of their own dead was pretty accurate from the start. Soldiers have families and you can't hide someones death from them even in a dictatorship.

By feeding this myth that Russian soldiers are dying in their thousands they're actually making it worse for Ukraine.

Russia probably would avoid using conscripts as much as possible. The outcry of grief from family members of conscripts would make Russian government in an awkward position especially when the war isn't fight in home turf. Whatever the reasons why Russians were not performed as well as some people think they would. It probably have more to do with unexpected strong resistance from enemies and Russian troops were moving too fast to capture as much territories as possible before Ukrainian troops fortified better defense position.

The latest American intelligence claimed that there are approximate 3000 Russian deaths so far which is significant lower than Ukrainian claiming. Let not exaggerated Russian casualties but they did take fair amount of losses in the early days. It is just that no war plan ever executed flawlessly. Russian force would adopt and correct its mistakes and deficiencies. What matters at the moment is that Russia still has been able to surround all the major Ukrainian cities and hammer Ukrainian troops in open field which means Ukrainians would be forced to hole up in major cities and got themselves surrounded. It is a matter of time these troops got annihilated if Ukrainians don't retreat.

It is like in Kherson. Ukrainian troops were forced to breakout and save themselves when Russians surrounded them. Ukrainians fall back to Mykolaiv and regroup and got reinforcement and able to beat back the Russians. However, Russians would again surround them. If Ukrainians stay and fight, they would get annihilated. If they tried breakout again, they would fall back to Odessa which probably would be their last line of defense. That's why Ukrainian victory lap is just smoke screen. In the end of the day, NATO is already planning an exile government and guerrilla warfare.

 

[Dolcevita]

Most likely some Indians and Koreans.

They better return territories to China in the future.

 

[Richard Santos]

Zelensky commented “the more this beast [putin?] will eat, he wants more, and more, and more”

That would be a somewhat odd comment to make if Zelensky expects Ukraine to give the beast any serious indigestion.

 

[Equation]

Plans to supply fighter jets to Ukraine could be doomed​

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No Fly Zone is Zelensky best hope. BUT we all know that's not going to happen because sending more Russian made Mig-29 from Poland ran into logistical problems even if the deal went through among NATO allies.

• "Frankly, a lot of the aircraft Ukraine has put up has gotten shot down," Kofman said.
• "And pushing MiG-29s — are they really going to fly from air bases that are being readily barraged on a daily and nightly basis?"

 

[Dolcevita]

I don't buy that argument. Some things you can only get one way: through war. The US didn't win Japan and Germany because they both love McDonald's, the US conquered them in war.

If Russia lost strategically, it lost when Gorbie succumbed to a Western information war and dissolved the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. I can't fathom how any Russian could willingly dismantle the empire Russia bled so much to win.

Russia would have lost strategically once western Russia is surrounded by militarily US/NATO-backed neighbor.
Anything that prevent that from happening is a strategic win for Russia.

So not sure what Seige is saying here.

 

[Richard Santos]

no, absolutely not. Russia would have improved her position by a margin equal to her own survival as a credible nuclear power if she gained ukraine but become more completely surrounded by other NATO backed neighbors further away, as compared to her being surrounded to the current degree by NATO backed neighbors, but then lost ukraine to NATO also.

For Russia, keeping nato out of ukraine is a matter of life or death to her ability to pursue any independent foreign policy. a few more other nato neighbors in the baltic would be mere irritation.

 

[Prietocol]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500916219989438475

 

[windsclouds2030]

Igor Strelkov - Russian Political Analyst, Former Commander of Donetsk Military Force being interviewed by CGTN - published on 05 March 2022:

EU mentioned its willingness to consider Ukraine's EU membership application first, then Ukraine immediately submitted the application. This is just another way to encourage the Ukrainian leadership to keep the war going for as long as possible.

Germany and the Netherlands oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500840439594856453

(Bloomberg) -- Several western European Union countries are pushing back against calls for the bloc to grant Ukraine so-called candidate status this week, a first step on the long road to EU membership, according to several diplomats.

Germany, the Netherlands and others first want the EU’s executive arm to deliver its opinion on Ukraine’s readiness for the membership process before taking a political decision, said the diplomats, describing private discussions taking place ahead of a summit in France this week. Those countries want to focus on delivering practical support to Ukraine and ending the war rather than embarking on a process that could take at least a decade, one of the diplomats said.

Countries in favor of the proposal argue that it would be symbolically important for EU leaders to put their weight behind Ukraine’s bid, even if the actual membership process itself remains long and complicated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy formally applied to join the EU at the end of last month and nine member states from central and eastern Europe, led by Poland and the three Baltic nations, have publicly called on the bloc to grant Ukraine candidate status and start the accession process. EU leaders are due to discuss Ukraine’s request when they meet over two days near Paris starting Thursday.



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