China/India could cover most of it. Why can't Russia refine petroleum?
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Quite frankly, the Russian business elites have been extremely comfortable with Western money and focusing their economy on energy and other commodities export and production, instead of trying to maximize import substitution in manufacturing to the hilt. There is much more to manufacturing than IC chips and consumer electronics. Given its population, if they get their act together, there's no reason as to why Russia shouldn't have a larger economy than that of any European country even in dollars exchange terms...
You are the one who is wrong to believe that Putin actually believes that he can recreate the Great Russian Empire, when most of those countries are under the NATO security umbrella. It feeds the trope that the West wants to push about Putin being a madman, instead of them wanting to acknowledge the problem of the expansion of NATO and the US obsession with maintaining regional enemies in particular regions of Eurasia.
Most of those components and parts can be import substituted. Somehow you have it in your mind that there is no way that Russia can import substitute those parts that you mention and that there is absolutely no alternative supplier of those parts for it, with the exception of America and its allies.
Wouldn't be surprised those Elites will fall from grace and others will stand up. There's a reason Russia was not allowed into the EU and NATO they would be too much of a US counter balance within, so they had to be isolated.
Promising if true.
If Russia would just be willing to compromise on the "any bloc" position and allow EU membership, Ukraine might go for it.
At least it's a way out of an abysmal situation for both countries - a minor victory for both actually imo.
Russia can refine petroleum just fine. It is just that because of Soviet policy most oil was refined in the Baltics. It was piped from Russia to the Baltics then refined there for export to Europe and the rest of the world. Russia has been building their own refining and oil processing facilities for over a decade already. Belarus also has substantial oil refining capacity. A lot of it depends on European inputs for things like catalysts which can be mostly replaced with Chinese ones. The catalysts themselves are made with strategic materials Russia has in plentiful quantities.
This is a big nothing burger really. You will see European companies leave ongoing oil&gas processing projects in Russia and the Chinese will just roll in. Chinese have second largest oil processing industry next to Russia and they don't depend on foreign supplies for parts and catalysts.
EU defense clause precludes Ukraine from ever joining that either.
Unfair analysis. "SEAD kill" is a misnomer. ARMs are a suppression (SEAD) tool to force the radar/SAM to turn off. You still need to destroy (DEAD) the site with regular munitions after suppressing it (best option for that is cluster bombs once the radar is suppressed and its location is known.)
I would assume the analyst who tweeted this knows this already, and yet he criticized the video pointlessly on twitter just to score points.
That's the famous difference between justification and reason. Once the Ukraine enters the EU and even the NATO the country is done for the recreation of Romanov's Russia. NATO being a thread, nazis in Ukraine, genocide etc. are just poor justifications. Putin's imperialistic fantasies are the actual reason.
Before the war, Russia would have been accepting of abiding by the Minsk protocol and neutrality. I believe that Russia bit off too much by recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk before the war. Russia could accept the EU. It is not clear what it means by bloc.
I will state my position again. Not acknowledging the expansion of NATO as being a problem is undertaken by the Western and especially US political elite deliberately to divert away from the fact that it is a problem, and casting Putin as seeking to recreate Imperial Russia is thoroughly ridiculous unless one also says that he wants world war 3. To recreate the Russian Empire he has to attack NATO member countries.
So, just go ahead and say it: Putin wants world war 3 and nuke exchange that will be thoroughly devasting for the globe - according to you.
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