Ukrainian War Developments

[gelgoog]

Russia would never accept Finnish accession into NATO. Try looking at the distance of Finland-Russia border and St. Petersburg.

 

[Weaasel]

and we are talking about a country with the industrial base smaller than Italy. There is no bright future for Russia. It’s time to face reality. By the way over 50% of trade was done with countries which are now on the unfriendly nations list.

Is it impossible for Russia to produce most or nearly all the textiles, cement, glass, chemicals, steel, refined petroleum products that are demanded domestically by its economy?

 

[gelgoog]

Is it impossible for Russia to produce most or nearly all the textiles, cement, glass, chemicals, steel, refined petroleum products that are demanded domestically by its economy?

Do not bother with him. He is one of those people who looks at the Russian economy by looking at it in USD terms instead of PPP.
The ruble's value is artificially depressed. It has been since Crimea annexation in 2014 and oil price collapse post COVID-19.
This is why he compares Russian economy with Italy's. And even Italy's economy isn't anything to sneeze at either.
Russia's economy is about the size of Germany's and has potential to be somewhere in between that of Germany and Japan.

 

[Pmichael]

Is it impossible for Russia to produce most or nearly all the textiles, cement, glass, chemicals, steel, refined petroleum products that are demanded domestically by its economy?

We are talking about a country that imports 90% of their potato seeds. Economy is hard especially if you isolate yourself

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Do not bother with him. He is one of those people who looks at the Russian economy by looking at it in USD terms instead of PPP.
The ruble's value is artificially depressed. It has been since Crimea annexation in 2014 and oil price collapse post COVID-19.
This is why he compares Russian economy with Italy's. And even Italy's economy isn't anything to sneeze at either.

It's the same meme as Russia is just a gas station with nukes. Russia in PPP is just a bit below Germany.

 

[Weaasel]

and we are talking about a country with the industrial base smaller than Italy. There is no bright future for Russia. It’s time to face reality. By the way over 50% of trade was done with countries which are now on the unfriendly nations list.

Russia has large forex reserves, Russia has huge energy and mineral reserves which it can consume domestically as well as find purchasers abroad for, most countries of the world are not hostile to Russia, and Russia can still obtain resources from such countries that it lacks domestically... Russia is capable of producing most of the essential capital goods and consumer goods that it needs. The West and its allies do not have a monopoly on essential capital goods and consumer goods and cannot compel countries not hostile to Russia not to trade with Russia.

Russia will undoubtedly go through a period of hardship, but it is not necessarily one that will cause it's collapse.

 

[gelgoog]

There is no doubt Russia's economy will contract and it will suffer over the next two years under conditions of massive disruption.
But then it will likely start to grow again. Some economists, who should know the condition better than I do (Western ones), think Russia can do this in as little as 6 months. Russia has little dependence on external trade to function to begin with.

 

[Weaasel]

We are talking about a country that imports 90% of their potato seeds. Economy is hard especially if you isolate yourself

So, the countries that are hostile to it are the only sources of that potato seed? Russia, which makes sophisticated aerojet turbine engines is incapable of significantly increasing the share of its potato seeds? Yes, with regards to state of the art computer and chip manufacturing tech, as well as consumer electronics imports from those countries that are hostile to it, Russia will face an embargo, but that doesn't mean that essentials cannot be covered... Remember that China is also a source of mid to high range tech that Russia cannot entirely or immediately replace that it imports from Western countries...

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Russia would never accept Finnish accession into NATO. Try looking at the distance of Finland-Russia border and St. Petersburg.

Russia might not accept it but what can it realistically do outside political rhetorics without risking actual military conflict with the EU and NATO. Ukraine looked like easy pickings. Finland does not.

 

[Pmichael]

So, the countries that are hostile to it are the only sources of that potato seed? Russia, which makes sophisticated aerojet turbine engines is incapable of significantly increasing the share of its potato seeds? Yes, with regards to state of the art computer and chip manufacturing tech, as well as consumer electronics imports from those countries that are hostile to it, Russia will face an embargo, but that doesn't mean that essentials cannot be covered... Remember that China is also a source of mid to high range tech that Russia cannot entirely or immediately replace that it imports from Western countries...

Russia lost over 50% trade volumes also the source for the overwhelming share of their high tech, work machines, automotive and aerospace parts. Shit looks incredible bleak.

Russia might not accept it but what can it realistically do outside political rhetorics without risking actual military conflict with the EU and NATO. Ukraine looked like easy pickings. Finland does not.

People need to stop believing it was about the NATO and not about the historic romanticisation of the Great Russian Empire - Putin's justification for this war made it obvious.